This is pretty cool.

This little ESPN page has a list of MLB players' walk-up music. My favorite is Tejada's choice (I hope it's his choice anyways, and not some cruel joke by the MMPUS staff) of Toby Keith's "(I Ain't) As Good As I Once Was." Somebody told me that this was his new walk-up music around late July, and I really couldn't believe it. Remarkably self-effacing.

Kazuo Matsui's song is some DDR song. Stereotypical, but somewhat surprising.

Berkman's choices are an interesting mix of the expected and surprising. What you might expect: Ted Nugent and some Christian rock song. Not really surprising: Godsmack, Motley Crue. WTF?: Nickelback's "Animals." Christ, I hate Nickelback. As I once said to a friend, they lack poise.

I really think that Carlos Lee should have a mariachi band play his entrances. That would be sweet.

Eliminated

Erstad hit a walkoff homer tonight, but the Brewers won over the Cubs 5-1. Fuck.

Ed Wade better do his fucking job right over the winter. He's on fucking thin ice with me (not that means anything). Fuck.

wat

Dickie J's blog is always a good source of bullshit. From today's entry:

GM Ed Wade blew up the roster last winter, and in the end, gave us an interesting season.

What? Ed wade didn't "[blow] up the roster." He sold off some bench players, back-of-the-bullpen pitchers, go-nowhere AAA "prospects," and one of the best relievers in the game for an all-star shortstop (who tanked the season). Methinks that Dickie's definition of "blow up" is suspect.

Let's read on:

They ranked in the top five in OPS in just two positions--first baseman and left field. They were in the top five in OBP in the same two positions. They were near the bottom of the NL in production in center field, third base and catcher.

Wade's first difficult question will concern Ty Wigginton and Michael Bourn.

Bourn I can understand - he's been absolutely awful this year and will probably lose his roster spot to Bogusevic sometime next season. But Wiggy's been nails all season long. Even before he had that ridiculous August, the guy was 3rd in OBP on the team.

Here's why we've gotten so little production from 3rd - Coop doesn't play Wiggy every day. He's played the last month in left, and even before then, Coop felt compelled to give Blum or Loretta playing time at third. Wigginton is not why the Astros had poor production at the left corner. He's why it's not completely dreadful.

Here's the thing: Wiggy has only had 419 PA's this year. That's the lowest he has had since he was called up in 2002. The guy is good. He can play. Just put him in, dammit!

Puma for NL MVP!

Over at Beyond the Box Score, they've posted individual wins-over-replacement values for individual players in the NL. Three Astros are mentioned: Carlos Lee, Miguel Tejada, and Lance Berkman.

Tejada has given the Astros 1.3 wins over replacement (this includes fielding). To quote from BtBS post, "You'll have to wait until the AL article to see where Luke Scott falls. Hint: better than 1.3 wins above replacement." At the time of the trade, the 5-for-1 deal was widely seen as an okay move. If nothing else, Tejada would offer a major improvement (offensively) over Everett.

But Luke Scott has turned into something of a decent hitter. He's posted a 119 OPS+ this year, and he's done well in Baltimore. It's unfortunate that Scott was traded away, but there really was no place for him in the Astros' outfield.

Carlos Lee ranked #9 in the NL. Cool. El Caballo continues to be a fantastic hitter, even if his contract is ridiculous.

Lee is the anti-Utley: bad fielder, great clutch hitter.

That's the other thing about this list - it adjusts for "clutchness." I don't really buy that such a thing exists in baseball, but whatever. I suppose it's a decent thing to look for in an MVP. Good for Carlos and the Astros.

Number one is, of course, Albert Pujo - what? It's not?! Who's the winningest hitter in the National League, baseball stat guys?

1. Lance Berkman (8.6 wins) -- Even without his great clutch performance, he managed to give Pujols a run for his money, trailing by one win in WPA/LI and only half a win in the field. But by being clutch to the tune of 1.8 wins, Berkman was able to do more for his team than even Prince Albert did. But yes, Randy Wolf was the catalyst for the Astros' playoff chase.

Well, whaddya know? Turns out that the Big Puma is the most valuable player this year. Turns out that walking a lot and hitting doubles and homers when it counts makes you pretty valuable. And Berkman walks a lot and slugs when it counts, because THAT'S WHAT PUMAS DO, DAMMIT!

Oh yeah, he walked three times last night. Didn't get a hit, but Hunter could learn a thing or two from Lance.

Maybe believing isn't all that it's cracked up to be...

Jesus Christ. What a horrible fucking game. If I never see Brandon Backe in an Astros uniform again, I'll be the happiest Astros fan this side of the Mississippi.

Let me make this clear to everyone: Backe sucks. That's just a simple fact we're all going to have to live with. We all wanted him to develop into the Astros' 5th starter: a guy with the stamina to eat innings and the ERA to justify that. We wanted him to just be average. That would have been fine.

Backe is now a 30 year old pitcher who wouldn't be a starter on any but the worst (Astros) rosters. Backe has come through for us a few times, mainly in the playoffs. But that's not a strong enough sample size to base a career off of.

And that's too bad. The guy is a local kid (isn't it kind of odd for me to be referring to a man 8 years my senior as a "kid?"). He has always showed a passion and vigor in the game (but what major leaguer doesn't? They wouldn't play the game if they didn't like it).

But his pitching stinks. And that's what we pay the guy to do - pitch.

Unfortunately, Backe isn't good enough to trade. He doesn't have the past numbers to get a compensatory pick in the draft. So the Astros just have to not re-sign him and just replace him with one of our other shitty starters.

You gotta believe

...or at least pretend to, folks.


We've been through MUCH lower lows than this as Houstonians and Astros fans. Just hold on, because the Mets and Brewers have completely collapsed. If we just win a tiny bit, we might make the big dance this year.

We'd probably still get swept out of the playoffs, but I figure the universe owes us.

Edit:

I'd also like to point out that Papa Grande's "Save" celebration looks a lot less cool when it's performed in the bottom of the 8th and the Astros are down by four. That wasn't really a celebration situation there, Jose.

Not a good weekend...

...for either my home town or my adopted city. First, Houston is hit with a true monster of a storm. Then, its baseball team puts up 18 innings of 1-hit ball. A good portion of its multi-million dollar football stadium's roof is torn asunder, meaning that the Texans will face an even more brutal schedule. Much of Houston is without power.

The Saints lost (don't really care, but Reggie Bush put up a 2.8 yds/carry game, which is always hi-fucking-larious). The Green Wave got its second "almost-but-not-quite" upset of the season.

The lone good point: Matt Forte put up 4.0 yds/carry with the Bears on Sunday. Awesome. One of my friends has him on his fantasy team, so good for him. As he pointed out, Forte has all the markers of a great running back. He's got great speed. He's physically powerful. He's got good vision and intelligence. And he can catch, to boot. The only reason he was a surprise in the 2nd round of the draft was because he came from Tulane and not LSU, USC, Texas, OSU etc.

On the bright side for me: we got almost 100 people to sign up for the debate society. If even a third of that shows up, we're doing good. It looks like we're going to have a great year.

I'd like to talk a little more about Coop.

As I posted over at the Crawfish Boxes, Coop has really improved over the last year. He's no longer doing the "small-ball" shit that was helping to lose games in April. He still doesn't just sit back and wait for our hitters to score, and I think he still orders stupid shit like the hit-and-run play WAY too often, but he's managed well.

More importantly, he's kept the bullpen in good shape. He's been handed a pretty good bullpen, and he usually distributes the work fairly evenly. He gets Wesley experience and puts the ball in the hands of Sampson, Hawkins or Brocail if we're in a jam. He keeps the pitchers well rested. That's great.

And he sticks up for his charges. He knows when the Astros are getting fucked. There's nothing wrong if a manager gets thrown out of the game, and he's willing to go to line for his guys (hell, he chewed out the commissioner!).

That's all you need from a manager. You don't need (or really want) guys like LaRussa or Torre. You just want a guy who can manage the bullpen, keep everyone in line, and who will argue the bad calls so his players don't have to.

Ugh

Not pretty. Fuck.

So, I'll address some of the stupid bullshit (Mostly Cubs fan talking points) that has been said over the past 24 hours:

1) Drayton McLane delayed the games until the last minute. Astros fans have no one to blame but Drayton.

This has been said by both Astros and Cubs fans. This is total crap. I hate on Uncle Drayton as much as the next God-fearing Houstonian, but this isn't his fault. He did the right thing. He tried to keep the games in Houston. He tried to keep players and employees with their families and loved ones.

And he didn't do it for the cash. Milwaukee handed over all money from the games. I think he legitimately wanted to ensure that the games would be played in Houston, if possible. He probably argued for the games to be played in Arlington (and Round Rock, too), but the MLB would have none of it.

2) The lack of "home field" didn't matter.

This is partially correct. I doubt that having thousands of dumbass Cubs fans in the stands did anything.

But travel time was an issue. The Good Guys spent most of Sunday traveling, after having to evacuate Houston just hours prior. That's a bunch of bullshit.

3) If you live on the Gulf Coast, losing home field to a hurricane is a possibility. Deal with it.

You know, I never really expected to encounter this one. But I did. Twice.

The first was on Fark (home of bullshit and unfounded self-righteousness) from a Baltimore Ravens fan. He was all pissed off about the NFL moving the Ravens' (and Texans') bye week to now. He said it was "unfair," and that, instead, the Ravens and Texans should play the game in Baltimore.

I found his definition of "fair" interesting. Both teams losing a bye week sucks, but it is "fair" because both get fucked equally.

To him, however, the "fair" thing was to give the Ravens a free home game. (Yeah, I think he failed Ethics 101)

I also encountered this from Cubs fans trolling on the Crawfish Boxes (the comments have since been baleted, which is really too bad).

I mean, words can't describe how stupid this is. I can't imagine Cubs (or Ravens, Bears or Orioles) fans thinking that moving their home games would be "fair" if Baltimore or Chicago was hit by some disaster. Maybe that's because it's just such a horseshit idea. No fan is going to accept that, and rightfully so. It's just so stupid to expect teams to give up home games because of natural disasters.

4) Typical "Team of Destiny!" Crap

I'd like to remind Cubs fans that pride goeth before the fall. And it makes that fall much worse than it would have been. One would think 100 years of post season failure would teach Cubs fans that anything can happen in the post season, and that it's just not a good idea to start the gloating before the games even happen.

Remember the 1998 Astros? Well, the 1998 Cubs had a pretty fucking great year, too. But they were swept by Atlanta in the NLDS. They, too, failed to get past the first round that year, facing much less spectacular teams. That was the year of Kerry Wood's 20K game against the Astros. Look what it yielded.

Now, this will make any failure by the Cubs all the sweeter. Every person outside of Chicago will be cheering for the Phillies (provided they make it) in the NLDS. Everyone will be cheering for the Mets or Dodgers to beat them in the NLCS. Everyone will want the Angels/Red Sox/ White Sox (God I hope not)/ Rays (fuck yes) to kick their ass. And if it happens, Cubs fans will never hear the end of it. Every NL Central fan will let the Cubs have it in 2009.

This isn't to suggest that Cubs fans shouldn't be happy with their team's victories. Far from it. They just need to realize that gloating now is just a prescription for unending grief later. It's why Red Sox fans are so despised. It's why no one like Yankees fans.

Now, with that said, I'd like to say that I'd never practice what I just preached. If the Astros were one of the best teams in baseball, if the Rockets raked house every year, and if the Texans were a powerhouse in the NFL, I'd never let any opposing fan hear the end of it. Maybe that's because I've spent most of my life rooting for teams that have had no post season success. I only vaguely remember the 1995 Rockets (I was only 7 years old). I don't really give a shit about the Dynamo or any of that crap. Chicago fans really don't have that excuse, though. The Jordan-era Bulls were only a decade ago. It wasn't long ago that the Bears went to the Superbowl.

5) Zambrano's No Hitter is Exactly the Same as Every Other Ever

That one's really a response to some Astros fans' claims that this no-hitter just wasn't as much of an accomplishment. Which is true. And before Cubs fans get in a little tizzy over this, let's do a thought experiment.

Pretend that two games exist: Game A and Game B. Game A was Sunday night's game. Everything happened in Game A just as in reality.

Game B is exactly like Game A, but it was played with no hurricane. It was played in Houston in front of a divided, but still pro-Astro crowd. The Astros players never had to evacuate. They never had to travel cross-country and play on the same day. But the no-hitter still happened.

Is anyone really willing to say that Game B and Game A are equivalent? That, one every level, the two games were equally glorious? I don't think anyone would, and that's because such suggestion would be stupid. Circumstances matter in all of this.

To use an example from Cubs history, let's look at Kerry Wood's 1998 20 K performance. Why was that so spectacular? Because he threw a CG Shutout 1-hitter with 20 strikeouts against a lineup that included three of the greatest hitters in baseball (Bagwell, Biggio, Alou). (As an aside, I've always thought that game was kind of interesting from the Good Guys' perspective. I was, if I recall, in 3rd grade math class at the time, so I never saw it. But it's rather remarkable that the worst hitter on the team (Ricky Gutierrez) got the one hit. On the other hand, the only other Astro baserunner was Biggio, who (in typical Bidge fashion) didn't get the fuck out of the way of a pitch). Wood's game wouldn't have been such an accomplishment if it were thrown against, say, the current Pirates. It would still be an accomplishment, but less so.

A final example, this time from Astros history: the 6-Pitcher-no-hitter game against the Yankees. That wasn't as good of a performance as any other no-hitter. Part of the greatness of a no-hitter is the stamina and efficiency involved. Using 6 pitchers obviously nullifies that. No one would compare that no-hitter to one of Nolan Ryan's.

All of this shows that circumstances matter. And since the circumstances involved invariably hurt the Astros, they hurt the image of Zambrano's no-hitter. That's just a fact.

In other matters, I'd like to wish the Buffalo Bills the best of luck. Despite the ignorance of ESPN and the regular sports media, Buffalo is the best team in the AFC East. Not that those fucks would ever notice. Despite the Bills' destruction of the Oilers and subsequent loss to Dallas (fuck the Cowboys), good luck to them.

Edit: Forgot about #5; added it in.

Eat shit Cubsfans

I rarely scream at televisions. Particularly when I'm in a dorm. Tonight was an exception.

So I'm majorly pissed. Bud Selig made the Astros play a thousand fucking miles away from home after their home city is fucked over by the forces of nature.

I want to make something very clear right now. Fuck whatever it is that's in charge of baseball luck. I don't care if it's fate, or karma, or God himself. This is horseshit. And I'm fucking tired of it.

The city of fucking "Baaaaaaaaaaaastaaaaaan" gets to fucking market it's "loveable loser" bullshit for fucking forever. Chicago does the same shit. What the fuck kind of sympathy does Houston get? Fucking nothing. We've had two fucking national championships since the AFL merged with the NFL. If we want to go through the list of bullshit luck, we can (and we will).

1) Phi Slamma Jamma
Greatest college team ever gets fucked over by fate. Fuck fate.

2) Moon-Era Oilers
Greatest Oilers ever get fucking unlucky in the playoffs. Fuck luck. And Buffalo. And Dallas. Also lead to Adams moving the fucking team. Fuck him.

3) 1998 Astros
Been through this. Fuck it.

4) 2004 Astros
4 guaranteed HOF players on the roster: Bags, Bidge, Rocket, Kent. Four awesome (possible HOF, provided everything goes right) other players: Beltran, Lidge, Berkman, Oswalt. All get screwed in the playoffs. Fuck Jim Edmonds.

5) 1986 Astros
Goddamnit.

6) Rockets, since 1995.
Don't get me fucking started.

7) Texans
David fucking Carr. The entire offensive line. Fuck this.

8) Bud Adams
If I ever see his Jabba-the-Hut ass on the street, I'll kick it.

arrrgh

Being a Houston fan is tough. We see Dallas fans and their stupid fucking Cowboys win all the fucking time. We see the Mavericks start to fucking make it, and all those assholes in Dallas start becoming basketball fans. If the Rangers start to be good, you can be sure that all those fuckers will suddenly be baseball fans, too. Bunch of fair-weather fucks.

I've got sympathy for precisely three cities in the US: New Orleans, Buffalo, and Cleveland. Fuck everyone else.

Houston rocks, and we deserve better fucking results. We get screwed over by luck all the goddamn time. It doesn't help when the people in charge join in on the fun.

First, Ike kicks the city of Houston in the nuts. Power is out. Galveston is torn to fucking shreds. I imagine a good portion of Galveston bay, Brazoria county, and anything along the Bayous and channel is fucked to hell.

Then, baseball does us no fucking favors.

Fuck it. The Astros will kick ass tomorrow. Then the Rockets are going to feed the rest of the country a big pile of dog shit.

Wishful thinking

Ugh. Paper due tomorrow (no biggy, just metaphysics) and my Russian professor is riding my ass. Really thinking about dropping that class. But I only need to finish it to complete my foreign language requirement. Why the fuck do we need 12 hours of a foreign language to graduate?

And I can't get hold of my mom. I called Saturday morning, and she was alright, but I've heard that the power in Montgomery county might be out for "weeks." If that's the case, she really needs to get out to Dallas to stay with my uncle. No reason a 60 year old woman needs to be staying in a house without power for weeks, even if the alternative is Dallas.

Nor will I be able to watch the Astros game (probably not, anyways, unless I can get that proxy server to work and trick MLB.tv into letting me see a blacked out game). I hate that the Astros have sold Sunday games to my20. Bunch of bullshit.

So days like this get me thinking. Joe Posnanski has an article about Jackal at his website, the typical fellating bullshit about how he could be the greatest player of all fucking time. I don't usually buy that "he could be the greatest if he just tried harder" crap. The man is 31. He is what he is, and he's a professional ballplayer. He tries hard every game.

Nevertheless, the New York media is going to ride his ass. He's like A-Rod; he's always going to be second-best to whomever the media loves at the moment (Reyes/Jeter), and will always be not quite good enough for their affections.

It's intriguing to me that writers don't think he "fits" New York. Maybe Beltran feels the same way. Maybe he thinks that New York isn't the place for him, that he'd be a better fit for Kansas City or Atlanta or Milwaukee or (dare I say it?) Houston.

People loved him when he was in Houston. He was a young superstar in a team that included plenty of other superstars. We loved his abilities. We loved his performance in the playoffs. He was immediately another Killer B. He could do no wrong.

Until he played the Astros for suckers. Then, he got booed at every Mets-Astros game.

And why did he leave? It's come out that the Astros offered him more money than the Mets gave him. The Yankees didn't want him (but he desperately wanted them). The Mets were his consolation prize.

So what happened? He had an off year in 2005, posting a .266/.330/.414 line for the season. OPS+ of 96. He was badmouthed in New York. And I'm sure he might have started questioning his decisions of December of 2004, as the Astros went to the World Series without him and the Mets played golf.

Had he stayed here, he would have been a star. Even if he had the same season in Houston, no Chronicle employee would eviscerate Beltran in the paper. He would never have been booed in Minute Maid. Just as the Hispanic community has fallen behind Carlos Lee, they would have embraced Beltran as representative and chosen son. Even if he had struck out every AB in the 2005 playoffs, the guy would have been loved.

You don't have to be great to be loved in Houston sports. We embraced Ensberg and Luke Scott . We didn't care about Everett's shitty batting line. You just have to show up every day and pretend you care. Granted, Astros fans' behavior towards Lidge in 2006 was despicable, but still.

So I think about the 2005 that might have been, had Beltran been re-signed and had Hunsicker stayed on.

Kent's option would still likely have been dropped, if only to have paid for Beltran's salary. This would place Biggio back at 2B, just as in the real 2005. If not, then the Astros would likely have kept Bidge in LF, at least until Bagwell went down. Maybe the Astros would have gone for the Reds' proposed trade of Adam Dunn. That would have been awesome. If Kent were still with the team, then he might have been moved to 1B, or possibly over to third. If not, the Berkman takes his rightful place at first.

Imagine that lineup! A Berkman-Beltran-Dunn-Ensberg lineup looks a lot better against the Chicago pitchers than the Berkman-Ensberg-Bagwell lineup of reality. Beltran would have possibly gotten that WS ring.

Ahh, to dream.

Fuck Carlos Beltran. Stupid fucking fuck.

Absolute horseshit

The Astros say that MMPUS is ready for games this weekend, but the commissioner has decided that two games will be played in Milwaukee. One game will be played on the 29th, if necessary.

So the Astros will play two "home" games at Wrigley Field North. Fucking great. Bud Selig can eat shit. If nothing else, play the two games at Ranger Field. That would at least be in Texas. Bullshit.

Whatever. Just kick some ass, Stros.

Something to drink to

While Ike prevents the Astros from continuing their run. (Good luck to everyone in Houston, too).

I just noticed this morning. Hunter Pence is now slightly above average (OPS+ 103). He's made the adjustments to the league's adjustments to him, I guess, and that's pretty encouraging. Especially since he was in OPS+ 80-90 range for much of the season.

Oh, and he hasn't committed any errors, either. Of course, errors are a stupid statistic, but that's good. Bill James had an article a couple of months ago where he wrote that Hunter's arm was one of the best in the league. And I'd agree. The guy has an ugly throw (and ugly swing, as we all know), but he has a pretty strong arm.

I think next year might be something of a "breakout" year for Hunter. It's tough to follow up on his excellent Rookie season, but he's showing a great deal of improvement at the plate. One more reason to have hope for the Astros' future.

Scouts tend to think that his swing is going to hurt him, preventing him from gaining true stardom in the majors. The odds are always against players attaining star numbers, anyways, but I think we've all seen guys with weird approaches make it big. I seem to recall some dude who played for the Astros a couple of years ago with a weird swing who a lot of scouts thought would never make it. What was his name again?

Oh yeah, he was never any good. Fuck him. Pence is going to suck forever and ever. 2007 was a fluke.

Morning Playoff Report

I think around the time when a team has a 1-in-6 shot at the playoffs, they're officially "back in it." Well, the Astros are almost at that point.

Again, going by ELO Playoff Odds:

Wild Card:

Milwaukee: 57.6%
Houston: 15.2%
Philly: 14.5%
St. Louis: 3.4%

The Astros' dumbass train keeps rolling along. We'll see what's going to happen in the next few days. We'll be in an interesting position, come Monday.

In all this talk about the Wild Card, I hardly noticed something about last night: the Astros have now won 80 games. They've all but clinched a winning season. That's pretty cool.

The writers at Baseball Prospectus will continue to point out that the Astros have gotten insanely hot and lucky in the past two months, but I'm inclined to start changing my opinion of the Good Guys. Yeah, this current stretch is certainly the result of that combination, but it's possible that the Astros really are much better than we thought.

The first consideration is the problems the Brewers have been facing: they have an awful bullpen. The Astros have an awesome one. In the long run, the bullpen's performance can make up for a lot of poor starting pitching. Our bench is similarly great.

That combination has allowed the Astros to survive injuries to starting players, the early crapout of Roy, and the lack of depth in the rotation. Ed Wade is no genius, but he did put together a team that could compete in a tough division. In most other sports, that gets you a playoff spot. In baseball, it makes you an also-ran.

The Astros have cut the RS-RA differential to -7. Their still a projected sub-.500 team, but that's going to change soon. As I've said before, Coop has allowed plenty of blowouts to take place. He's left Backe and Wandy and even Roy in games to get knocked around. Maybe that's fucked with the projections.

Speaking of Roy, he's awesome. He broke JR Richard's record for consecutive scoreless innings last night, and he's transformed himself into the Wizard once more. That's why we're paying him $15 million to play a children's game. Oh, and he faced only 27 hitters last night. All 3 runners were retired in double plays. Good job, Roy.

3

Cable was out in the dorms (thanks, Ike!), so I didn't get to see Roy pitch. Had to settle for friends. Fuck that.

Cubs won against St. Louis; Phillies won against Milwaukee; Good Guys swept the Pirates. Milwaukee has now cut its lead down to three games. Philly and Houston are still tied.

Good News: Only 3 games back, the Astros are still in good shape. Completing a sweep against any club is an achievement, even against one as bad as the Pirates. Hopefully, the Astros can do it again in a week.

Bad News: Still tied with the Phillies. That's problematic because 1) They have a similarly weak schedule as us, and 2) We don't face them. It comes down to teams like the Braves getting the job down against them and failing against us.

More Bad News: The Astros might have to play the series against the Cubs elsewhere. Maybe St. Louis or Kansas City. Cubs fans are like flies, mosquitoes, or tribbles - they're fucking everywhere. A "home" game anywhere but South Texas is really an away game for the Stros.

More Good News: The games will probably be delayed. This will allow the Astros to rest Roy and Wolf an extra few days. It might hurt the hitting, but pitching has been getting it done for the Astros recently. It gives the bullpen a needed rest.

Plus, it might give Kazuo or Wiggy a chance to get the fuck going. If either of those two can come back, the Astros are much better, offensively. If both come back some time in the next week, we're fucking golden.

The best case for the Astros would be if the games are postponed until the end of the season. If the Astros are leading the WC then and the Cubs have clinched it, then the games won't be played. If the Stros are tied or only one or two back, the Cubs will still not place guys like Dempster and Zambrano on the mound, more likely starting a couple call-ups, instead. Plus, Carlos might be back by then, God willing.

A few comments on the game: I didn't see it, so I can't say anything really particular. However, Coop let Roy go the distance on this one, and I think I agree with that decision.

At this point in the season, games come down to "intangibles" like luck and momentum. Luck is the bigger factor, but letting the guy who's on fire pitch isn't so bad. Maybe letting Roy get the CG shows him that Coop has confidence in him, and sends a message to the whole team: we're all in at this point.

I think Coop has really matured as a manager over the season. You'll notice that he doesn't have Wigginton steal bases anymore, and he has cut down on the running game overall. He still uses it with Bourn and Reggie (and, unfortunately, with Erstad and Pence), but he's really only stealing with the right guys now. Good.

And he's loading the front end of the lineup with guys who can work pitchers. Yeah, I think he should probably switch Hunter and Miggy in the lineup, but he puts the right platoons on the field and uses what he's got. And that's what matters.

3 games back, and we've still got a shot at this. Go Stros.

Heard about Houston?

Heard about Detroit? Heard about Pittsburgh, PA?

Irrelevant to the forthcoming post, but I like the song.

Anywhoo, this morning's ELO odds are out. Look something like this for the wild card:

Brewers: 61.64%
Phillies: 10.61%
Astros: 10.36%
Cardinals: 5.08%

As Lance has said, "It would still take a small miracle, but it would take a smaller one today than it would have a month ago."

Edit: Oh, and good luck to everyone in Houston. Heard something about an 8' storm surge for Galveston and the Channel. It's gonna be serious, folks.

Tied for 2nd!

With the Phillies' loss to Florida, the Brewers' unfortunate win over the Reds, and the Cubs' close one against the Shitbirds, the Astros are now tied with Philly for 2nd. Unfortunately, both clubs still sit 4 games back of Milwaukee.

The Good News: the Astros have cut their RS-RA differential significantly. It's still negative, but I think that maybe the club should be given a mulligan on the early season. They're overperforming significantly, but maybe not as significantly as the basic numbers might suggest.

The Bad News: We're up against the Cubs on Friday. We swept them at Wrigley last time, but it's going to be tough. Really tough. They're the best team in baseball, but they're slumpin' hard.

Kaz, Wiggy, and El Burro are still out. Carlos is hanging around the dugout during games, and I don't know how well he is. It might be that maybe (just maybe) he'll be back later on. It would be great to have him back for the last week or so, if nothing else. They've done well without him, but the Good Guys need the big man. Wigginton is desperately needed, too.

I've doubted this team all season. I still don't think it's a great team. It's probably barely a .500 club. But sometimes it's better to be lucky than anything near good, and the Astros are showing that off.

However, it's not been all luck. Hunter has improved significantly in the last few weeks. Maybe that's just him getting hot and nothing else, but it might be the Spaz we knew and loved last season shining through. The bench has delivered like no other. The bullpen is fucking solid.

Anyways, this next series will be key. If the Astros can walk away without losing ground in the race, they will be doing great. Even if they only lose a game, I'll count it as a win. But a sweep would pretty much end the Astros' chances at this point.

Of course, I've said that before. I said that in June, after they just looked awful. I said that after they got swept by the Pirates. But each time they seem to be out of it, the Astros have sat on that tantalizing edge of postseason possibilities.

Back in June, some writer said that this year's Cardinals are like the old-time "Gashouse Gang" of wheneverthefuck. At this point, I think the Astros are a more apt comparison. If the Astros pull this off, then they will have had the most epic comeback since the '69 Mets. Here's hoping against all reason for it to happen.

Holy shit holy shit holy shit

First, I'm glad Ike will miss us and go towards South Texas. Corpus Christi's a beautiful town (and it gave us Whataburger!), but it can take a hit from a hurricane better than New Orleans. Godspeed, little buddies.

Second, holy shit the Astros are only 4 games back of Milwaukee. So, in the grand scheme of things, we "only" need to win 5 games more than the Brewers over the next 16. It's possible. After last night, BP posted new ELO odds on the NL Wild Card. ELO gives weight to recent performance, so teams on a hot streak have better odds than those on a losing streak. Our Wild Card odds are at 8.9%. That's still really low, but it's manageable. Milwaukee is down to 51%. It's entirely possible that Milwaukee will blow this thing. St. Louis has won its last 3 games, but its WC odds are slightly worse than ours.

Philly is the problem in all of this. With a 15% chance of grabbing the WC right now, they have the best chance of the non-Brewer teams. But they're scuffling hard right now.

I've said it elsewhere, and I'll say it here. This is luck. This is a hot streak coming right at the end and there not being time for the universe to even out. In 2004 and 2005, the Astros made fantastic runs because their luck finally evened out - their teams finally performed as they should have.

2004 wasn't "magical." Think about who was on that team: Clemens, Bagwell, Biggio, Oswalt, Beltran, Berkman, and Kent. That's four certain hall-of-famers right there (well, maybe not Clemens, but he should be) and three awesome players of our era (Puma, Wizard, and Jackal).

2005 was more "magical." Offense sucked that year, but Pettitte got healthy and delivered for the team. Pitching got us where it did.

But now, the team is made up of a few stars (Berkman, Oswalt, Lee), one washed-up has-been (Tejada), and the cobbled-together cast-offs from other, better teams. That's pretty cool.

I'll say this: Randy Wolf has panned out much better than I thought. Ed Wade was right about the guy. He's not as good as he once was, but he's still a fine pitcher. He did well last night, even when he had some control issues in the first inning and the ump squeezed him the whole game.

And Wade's tinkering with the bullpen has paid off, too. Valverde is awesome. Geary, Wesley, and Sampson are awesome. Byrdak is serviceable, as is Brokail. Nieve and (surprisingly) Arias look good. Most surprising, however, is LaTroy Hawkins.

Hawkins' best days are behind him. Hell, they were behind him pretty quickly into his career. But he's always been a solid reliever (just don't let him close). Honestly, his sudden ejection from New York was pretty weird. The Yankees need pitching more than anyone in the AL East (except the O's, but they don't count cuz they suck). Why jettison a guy who has done well? He's not the guy he was in 2002, but he can still keep the ball in the yard. And that's what's really important, particularly in late-inning situations.

So, Ed Wade has done well with the pitching staff. The Villareal and Chacon debacles aside, the pitching staff is better today than it was last year. And it's pitching that has gotten the Astros to this point. Maybe they'll be able to close out the season with some self-respect, but they might just be able to end the season in October.

Finally Back in NOLA

Got back yesterday. And now there's another fucking Hurricane gunning for the city. Shit.

On the bright side, the Astros continue to nullify any chance that they'll tank the season and show Ed Wade and Uncle Drayton that they need a lot more work to be a contender.

Tonight, Mark Saccomanno was called up for his debut. He's 28 (!), and, as I've said previously, it's kind of surprising they never called him up before. Anyways, he homered off of his first pitch. Pretty cool. Alberto Arias made his first start ever, and went 5 innings with 6 K's. Awesome.

So the Good Guys are 10 games over .500. Vastly overperforming all expectations (and run differential), so they'll probably come down pretty soon.

But it's entirely possible that the Astros could make it happen. All it takes is for three teams to collapse in the next two weeks. Not likely, but you can hope for it.

Astros winning, bunch of other crap I'm thinking about

It's now the middle of the 6th inning, and the Astros are up by 5. Good jobs, dudes.

The biggest single "play" so far was a blown call by 1b ump Winters. Shumaker came in to field a short Q fly ball, dove, and couldn't make it. The call wasn't even close. The ball bounced up into Schumaker's glove. However, Mike Winters is a little bitch, and he wouldn't even get the other umps together to check the call, and then he throws Coop out. Winters has a rep as a dick, too. At least Coop was following one of Earl Weaver's rules of management.

One of the highlights was Schumaker going up onto Tal's Hill to field a Puma FB, tripping, and Berkman getting a triple. I was reading one of the Cardinals blogs/forums to see reactions to the bullshit call (at least they knew it was crap), and saw this posted in response:

I've seen it before, and I still think it's fuckin hilarious.

I love Tal's hill. I love the Crawford boxes. I hope they dig a fucking trench between the infield and the outfield, so that infielders can't field popups. That'd be fucking great. It's great hearing opposing fans bitch about the hill and the boxes and the flagpole.

I don't like a lot of things about MMPUS, but I'm rather fond of the stupid quirks. Boston and Chicago have theirs, why can't we have some? We spent thirty-five years in a giant concrete bubble. This is another extreme.

Let's see...

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I saw the ECU-Virginia Tech game this afternoon. That was pretty epic, with a returned blocked PAT by VT, and a final blocked punt by ECU returned for a TD. ECU won, and that was pretty cool. Their probably going to win C-USA this year. It's always cool to see a smaller conference win against a larger one, even if it is the ACC.

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Q is so awesome as a defensive catcher. If the guy could hit a lick, we'd be in business. He doesn't even have to get up to throw out most base-runners. Cool. Very powerful throw. Wish I had his arm.

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I hate Houston fans' obsession with the wave. Goddamn it's stupid.

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That blown Winters call really underscores the instant-replay thing. What would be so wrong with replaying calls like that? The heart of the "games take too long" problem is the offensive explosion. Games didn't take as long in the 70s and 80s because hitters weren't as good. Fewer hits meant fewer pitches, which meant less time. An extra two minutes a game (maybe), wouldn't mean too much.

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I see our bench coach subscribes to Coop and Garner's philosophy of trigger-happy bullpen management. No reason to pull Byrdak out of the 8th inning.

And of course, Pujols hits a FP homer. Fuck. Now it's 8-5 Astros. Looks like Papa Grande is coming in, after all.

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I like our choice of Deep in the Heart of Texas as a stretch song better than that "God Bless America" crap. I hate that fucking song.

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Hey! Miggy hit into a DP! According to JD, Ausmus holds the NL season record for GIDP (30 in 2002). God, I love this shitty team.

A Helluva Hullabaloo

Former Tulane star Bogusevic made Baseball Prospectus' weekly list of top prospects:

Brian Bogusevic, OF, Double-A Corpus Christi (Astros)
In the spring of 2005, Bogusevic was one of the top two-way players in the country, serving not only as Tulane's ace, but also as a tools-laden center fielder with above-average speed and power potential. A hamstring injury limited him primarily to mound duties, and the Astros took him in the first round as a power left-hander. While that didn't work out, his converting back to the outfield was something some scouts had been hoping for, as his batting practices were among the most impressive to be seen in a weak Astros chain. That conversion began in July after another brutal campaign on the mound, and it's been a smashing success. Over the weekend, Bogusevic went 7-for-11 to raise his averages to .359/.445/.553 in the Texas League, and while he had dropped well off of most Astros prospect rankings as a lefty, he's back on them—and very highly ranked—as an outfielder.

Sweet. God, I hope they call him up next week. We need hitting (and pitching) so bad. If we can just get a decent fucking hitter out of the farm system, I'll be placated until December. Please, God, let him be good. I don't know if I can take another JR Towles, not with so little hope elsewhere in the farm system. Just stop jerking us around, God. If he's bad, just make him go 0 for the rest of the season. We'll get the message. If he's good, make him blast a couple homers and get on base - that's all we ask.

Edit:

Footer over at Astros.com has said they don't plan on calling him up. That's cool, given that he only started hitting two months ago. Just one of those unrealistic fan dreams. We'll see what he's doing next year. I imagine he'll be playing fall and winter league stuff.