The Wizard went 8 innings, allowing only 1 hit, 2 walks, no runs, and striking out 10. Pretty goddamn awesome, especially since he was getting squeezed through the whole game. Roy seems like he's getting back to form. I don't know if it was simply time, a mental thing, or if he went out and got a personal pitching coach, but he has been kickass through his last several starts. Ty Wigginton shot a three-run homer into the Crawford boxes, which accounted for all of Houston's offense. Spaz went 0 for whatever, but he made a pretty spectacular assist with Ausmus at the plate. Valverde came in the ninth, giving up a hit, but getting the save. All around a pretty awesome game.
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Biggio, of course, was the focus of the day. The ceremony was pretty good, and all of the retired numbers were there, except for Ryan. Bunch of speeches. Everyone talked about his 3000 hits, his doubles, etc. But most of all, they talked about his grit.
I think that's always what happens with players. People seem to want to remember them for things that don't affect the game all that much. Don't get me wrong, the guy was a joy to watch and certainly had grit and was a gamer and all that crap. But I think it's important to remember exactly why he was such an awesome player.
Bill James ranked the best players of the 1990s in his New Historical Baseball Abstract. In it, he placed Bonds at #1. No question, Bonds was the best player of the last two decades. He might have been the best of all time.
#2 (and this always surprises me) was Craig Biggio. James loved the Bidge. And it's easy to see why. Biggio really was a "five tool player." He could hit for average and power, he had a great arm and played spectacular defense, and he displayed remarkable speed.
That speed kept Biggio from grounding into the double play, as did his power. The guy has more doubles than any other right-handed hitter. He won four gold gloves (and deserved it). He had a great ability to get on base, particularly for a guy not spectacularly powerful. And he really knew how to take a pitch to the head. He won five Silver Slugger awards, four as a second baseman and one as a catcher. He had a career high OPS+ of 143, and a career average of 111. He was great - one of the greatest.
Biggio was certainly robbed of a lot of power statistics from his years in the Dome. Had he played in, say, any other ballpark, he likely would be considered one of the greatest of all time by the national media, and here's why: Biggio was only 9 homers away from the 3000 hits, 300 HRs, 300 SB club. If he had played anywhere but the Dome, or if he had played all year in 2000, he would have done it. There's only one other player in all of baseball history to pull that off: Willie Mays. And Biggio had about 80 more stolen bases than Mays, too.In his "Big Book of Baseball Lineups," Rob Neyer wrote that Biggio was "unique." And he meant that in the literal sense. Nobody else has gone from being an all-star catcher to being an all-star middle infielder. That's just not done.
Going by Similarity Scores, Biggio was most similar to Robin Yount. But Bidge has no "truly similar" match. His #3 match, Joe Morgan, is the guy I'd say was most similar, but really there was no one quite like Craig Biggio.
James ranked Bagwell #5 on the Best Players of the 1990s list. The Astros really had a great tandem with the Killer B's. Few teammates in the history of baseball are that great together. The last 15+ years have truly been a great time to be an Astros fan, even with the postseason losses and disappointment. It's a shame that the two had to eventually retire, but they made baseball big in Houston, and did a lot for this city and franchise.
-----------------
So they had about a billion in-game interviews today: Bagwell, Biggio, Bill Doran, and Mike Scott all showed up in the booth. I usually hate that type of crap, but hearing those guys was pretty sweet.
Bagwell gave a pretty great endorsement for Bogusevic. Great ballplayers aren't always great evaluators of talent, but it can't hurt to have one of the greatest hitters ever say that you're looking good at the plate. I hope he gets called up in September.
Showing posts with label diamondbacks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label diamondbacks. Show all posts
Sunday, August 17, 2008
Friday, August 15, 2008
Astros get killed; Down on the Farm
Astros got knocked around. Diamondbacks 12-2. Wigginton got 3 hits, including a home run. Lance got an RBI double. Everyone else sucked donkey dong.
Chase Davidson has until tonight to sign. He was the Astros' 3rd round pick, and is the only pick in the Astros' first 16 to be unsigned. Rumor is that he will probably go to college.
It's tough to find statistics on high school prospects, especially beyond basic BA/OBP/SLG lines. But he posted a .500+ OBP his senior year, according to his high school website. They don't give any numbers to indicate whether or not that came from just monstrous hitting or from walking. I'd be more hopeful, of course, if his numbers indicated having a good eye, rather than simply knocking the hell out of the ball. Taking high school position players isn't as bad as taking a high school pitcher. At least there's some indication in high school of where a hitter might end up. But if a guy doesn't demonstrate a good eye in high school, it's doubtful he'll discover one in college or the minor leagues.
Lisa Gray over at the Astros Dugout has a pretty good list of Astros picks and where they are right now. Jason Castro has been unspectacular in his season thus far, posting a .278/.387/.354 line, and only getting 6 doubles and no home runs in his debut. What's at least hopeful is his 14 BB in 23 games (at least one was IBB; he was intentionally walked in his first PA). He can add power later; he probably can't add discipline.
A few players have been promoted already. Jacob Priday (who didn't post anything special in the ValleyCats, but drew 5 walks in his short time there) was promoted to Lexington after only 8 games. He's hit .256/.362/.333 in his first 13 games there. He's drawn 4 walks since starting. That's encouraging. He also strikes out a lot, which isn't. But there are far worse things than striking out. He also plays DH in Lexington, so maybe he'll be another Adam Dunn clone (one can only hope).
This one's really good: Phil Disher, whom we drafted as a catcher from the USC Gamecocks, is still in Low A after 53 games. In that time, he's drawn 21 walks and hit 12 doubles, 2 triples , and 11 dingers . He's posting a .304/.375/.541 line. Those triples might be why the Astros moved him to first base, not wanting him to lose speed. He's stolen one base, which is meaningless when you're a slugger, but speed on the basepaths is a plus. One of the many things that separates Lance from Bags is that Bagwell rarely got thrown out stretching a single into a double or a double into a triple. Lance, on the other hand, is a fat bastard. Hopefully the Astros will promote him soon.
The last dude on the farm I want to talk about is Brian Bogusevic: Ankiel'd former pitcher and fellow Tulane alum (kind of; I think he left before he graduated). Bogusevic was pretty awful as a pitcher, posting a career ERA of 5.50 in four seasons. This year the Astros gave up on his pitching career and took advantage of his batting skills. They moved him down to Salem, where he played 8 games before being called back up to Corpus Christi, this time as an OF. In 28 games, he's gone .377/.463/.638. He's also got a BB% of 13.75%, which is none too shabby. I wouldn't be surprised to see him called up in September.
From what I remember of the two or three Hooks games I've seen, he also plays CF. So if Bourn doesn't work out (and I'm increasingly worried that a combination of organizational incompetence and coaching will mean he won't), we might not have to play Spaz in center.
Alright, one more dude. Our friend JR Towles. JR sucks. I used to think that he was just overwhelmed by MLB pitching, but I think it goes much deeper than that. He's hitting well in AAA, going .275/.338/.517 in 36 games. But he's only walked 7 times in those games. That's the problem. Posting a BB% of 5 during AAA doesn't bode well for one's major league career. And his reactions to failure at the major league level seemed to indicate he was frustrated with it - ballplayers, particularly rookies, have to be able to take failure in stride. The good news is that Q has become the regular catcher. He isn't any good, offensively, but he has a 1990s-Ausmus-like arm.
So there is reason for hope. This draft class seems to be doing alright in their first few weeks/months in pro ball. Only time will tell if they work out, but hopefully these kids can get good quick. The Good Guys need them.
Edit:
Apparently Davidson has decided to not sign. Whatever.
Much more interestingly, Oakland signed their 7th round pick (Brett Hunter) to a seven-figure deal. Beane must have seen something really good for that to happen. Wow.
Chase Davidson has until tonight to sign. He was the Astros' 3rd round pick, and is the only pick in the Astros' first 16 to be unsigned. Rumor is that he will probably go to college.
It's tough to find statistics on high school prospects, especially beyond basic BA/OBP/SLG lines. But he posted a .500+ OBP his senior year, according to his high school website. They don't give any numbers to indicate whether or not that came from just monstrous hitting or from walking. I'd be more hopeful, of course, if his numbers indicated having a good eye, rather than simply knocking the hell out of the ball. Taking high school position players isn't as bad as taking a high school pitcher. At least there's some indication in high school of where a hitter might end up. But if a guy doesn't demonstrate a good eye in high school, it's doubtful he'll discover one in college or the minor leagues.
Lisa Gray over at the Astros Dugout has a pretty good list of Astros picks and where they are right now. Jason Castro has been unspectacular in his season thus far, posting a .278/.387/.354 line, and only getting 6 doubles and no home runs in his debut. What's at least hopeful is his 14 BB in 23 games (at least one was IBB; he was intentionally walked in his first PA). He can add power later; he probably can't add discipline.
A few players have been promoted already. Jacob Priday (who didn't post anything special in the ValleyCats, but drew 5 walks in his short time there) was promoted to Lexington after only 8 games. He's hit .256/.362/.333 in his first 13 games there. He's drawn 4 walks since starting. That's encouraging. He also strikes out a lot, which isn't. But there are far worse things than striking out. He also plays DH in Lexington, so maybe he'll be another Adam Dunn clone (one can only hope).
This one's really good: Phil Disher, whom we drafted as a catcher from the USC Gamecocks, is still in Low A after 53 games. In that time, he's drawn 21 walks and hit 12 doubles, 2 triples , and 11 dingers . He's posting a .304/.375/.541 line. Those triples might be why the Astros moved him to first base, not wanting him to lose speed. He's stolen one base, which is meaningless when you're a slugger, but speed on the basepaths is a plus. One of the many things that separates Lance from Bags is that Bagwell rarely got thrown out stretching a single into a double or a double into a triple. Lance, on the other hand, is a fat bastard. Hopefully the Astros will promote him soon.
The last dude on the farm I want to talk about is Brian Bogusevic: Ankiel'd former pitcher and fellow Tulane alum (kind of; I think he left before he graduated). Bogusevic was pretty awful as a pitcher, posting a career ERA of 5.50 in four seasons. This year the Astros gave up on his pitching career and took advantage of his batting skills. They moved him down to Salem, where he played 8 games before being called back up to Corpus Christi, this time as an OF. In 28 games, he's gone .377/.463/.638. He's also got a BB% of 13.75%, which is none too shabby. I wouldn't be surprised to see him called up in September.
From what I remember of the two or three Hooks games I've seen, he also plays CF. So if Bourn doesn't work out (and I'm increasingly worried that a combination of organizational incompetence and coaching will mean he won't), we might not have to play Spaz in center.
Alright, one more dude. Our friend JR Towles. JR sucks. I used to think that he was just overwhelmed by MLB pitching, but I think it goes much deeper than that. He's hitting well in AAA, going .275/.338/.517 in 36 games. But he's only walked 7 times in those games. That's the problem. Posting a BB% of 5 during AAA doesn't bode well for one's major league career. And his reactions to failure at the major league level seemed to indicate he was frustrated with it - ballplayers, particularly rookies, have to be able to take failure in stride. The good news is that Q has become the regular catcher. He isn't any good, offensively, but he has a 1990s-Ausmus-like arm.
So there is reason for hope. This draft class seems to be doing alright in their first few weeks/months in pro ball. Only time will tell if they work out, but hopefully these kids can get good quick. The Good Guys need them.
Edit:
Apparently Davidson has decided to not sign. Whatever.
Much more interestingly, Oakland signed their 7th round pick (Brett Hunter) to a seven-figure deal. Beane must have seen something really good for that to happen. Wow.
Shit that pisses me off #1!
The Astros have just won eight straight. That places us "only" 7.5 games behind the Brewers in Wild Card standings. Knuckleheads throughout the city (fine, throughout the Chronicle comments pages) have latched onto this as a playoff run. It ain't happening, people. No matter what Dick Justice or JdJO write in the paper, the Astros just aren't a very good team.
Right now, the Good Guys are greatly over-performing their expected Win-Loss record. Going by Pythagorean Win-Loss, they are on pace for a 78 win season. Granted, this is better than last year, but the Astros just aren't going to pull this into a winning season, let alone a playoff run. Not without Roy at the top of his game and Carlos hitting behind Twinkies.
The next series is against the D-Backs. Arizona's pitching is very good (Brandon Webb is posting an Oswaltian 2.88 ERA), but their hitting is awful. Dunn will undoubtedly add a great deal to the offense, but one can't expect one man to turn around an entire offense. So maybe the Astros can win by exploiting their shitty batters.
But wait! The D-Backs aren't actually that bad compared to the Astros. They've only scored 5 fewer runs than Houston. That might be bolstered by the quality of the NL West this season, but it still doesn't bode well for the Stros.
The Astros have shown themselves to be good at beating up on bad bullpens. Tuesday's game showed that best - Houston didn't get anything going until Ausmus hit a line shot off of Lincecum's knee. But the D-Backs have a very strong bullpen (as best as I can tell; neither ESPN nor MLB.com have ERAs for the bullpen as a whole). Even if the Astros can tire Webb and Johnson out, Arizona won't send out some young scrub to finish the game.
Which brings me to my final point. Chad Qualls. Why did we trade this guy? He proved himself to be one of the strongest parts of the Astros' bullpen, and we traded him, Burke, and Gutierrez for Valverde. Given Valverde's penchant for giving up fly balls and MMPUS penchant for turning those into homers, he was not really worth it for the Astros. More to the point, he's terrible with inhereted baserunners. Managers seem to think that accruing the "Save" is more important than using their closers efficiently, but Valverde is supposed to be the best guy in the bullpen. He's actually one of the weakest.
Beyond that, Valverde is also an injury risk. Cooper has kept him from having a heavy workload, however, and we haven't seen that side of him this season. The whole deal stunk back then, and it still does. We should have traded Burke and Gutierrez for anything else, and just held on to Qualls.
The only way I see this working out is if Ed Wade trades Valverde to a larger, stupider club next year. He's grabbed a fair number of saves this year, and only blown a few of his opportunities. Detroit comes to mind as a team with a good farm system and a desperate need for relief pitching. Valverde is overvalued right now, and the Astros could probably turn him into something significant.
Right now, the Good Guys are greatly over-performing their expected Win-Loss record. Going by Pythagorean Win-Loss, they are on pace for a 78 win season. Granted, this is better than last year, but the Astros just aren't going to pull this into a winning season, let alone a playoff run. Not without Roy at the top of his game and Carlos hitting behind Twinkies.
The next series is against the D-Backs. Arizona's pitching is very good (Brandon Webb is posting an Oswaltian 2.88 ERA), but their hitting is awful. Dunn will undoubtedly add a great deal to the offense, but one can't expect one man to turn around an entire offense. So maybe the Astros can win by exploiting their shitty batters.
But wait! The D-Backs aren't actually that bad compared to the Astros. They've only scored 5 fewer runs than Houston. That might be bolstered by the quality of the NL West this season, but it still doesn't bode well for the Stros.
The Astros have shown themselves to be good at beating up on bad bullpens. Tuesday's game showed that best - Houston didn't get anything going until Ausmus hit a line shot off of Lincecum's knee. But the D-Backs have a very strong bullpen (as best as I can tell; neither ESPN nor MLB.com have ERAs for the bullpen as a whole). Even if the Astros can tire Webb and Johnson out, Arizona won't send out some young scrub to finish the game.
Which brings me to my final point. Chad Qualls. Why did we trade this guy? He proved himself to be one of the strongest parts of the Astros' bullpen, and we traded him, Burke, and Gutierrez for Valverde. Given Valverde's penchant for giving up fly balls and MMPUS penchant for turning those into homers, he was not really worth it for the Astros. More to the point, he's terrible with inhereted baserunners. Managers seem to think that accruing the "Save" is more important than using their closers efficiently, but Valverde is supposed to be the best guy in the bullpen. He's actually one of the weakest.
Beyond that, Valverde is also an injury risk. Cooper has kept him from having a heavy workload, however, and we haven't seen that side of him this season. The whole deal stunk back then, and it still does. We should have traded Burke and Gutierrez for anything else, and just held on to Qualls.
The only way I see this working out is if Ed Wade trades Valverde to a larger, stupider club next year. He's grabbed a fair number of saves this year, and only blown a few of his opportunities. Detroit comes to mind as a team with a good farm system and a desperate need for relief pitching. Valverde is overvalued right now, and the Astros could probably turn him into something significant.
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