Things I Was Wrong About:

You don't have to go too far back for my posts relating to the Astros to be about how this season was going to suck. I've been proven wrong by fate, and I'd like to cop to it.

1) Reggie Abercrombie: okay, so he's only had a grand total of 49 PAs this year, but he's currently hitting .319/.340/.532. He's turned into, if nothing else, a decent 4th OF. Of course, the Astros have several of those, but that's okay. In the past, I've said he was downright awful. That's untrue. He's a below-average to average CF.

2) Randy Wolf: I thought this was just a terrible trade. I thought it was, at best, a $3 million draft pick. In truth, it's that and more. Randy has been a good pitcher while we've had him. He's helped take the Astros this far.

3) Latroy Hawkins: thought he was done. Figured that if the Yankees didn't want him, we probably shouldn't, either. Hawkins is no longer the pitcher he was, say, four years ago. His K/9 rate is down for his career (though it is up from last year). But he's kept the ball in the yard and posted 13 consecutive scoreless innings while a Good Guy. He has yet to give up a run as an Astro. That's pretty fuckin' great.

4) Ed Wade: I don't think he's a genius. But he's done well. He was given a mandate: compete now with what we've got. He was told to make an all-or-nothing run at the playoffs, and he gave it the best try he could. The result: the Astros are going to have at least a winning season, and have a long-distance chance of playing in October.

If you go through Wade's decisions, there are really six big ones: 1) the Tejada trade, 2) the Wolf trade, 3) the Hawkins trade, 4) signing Kazuo Matsui, 5) the Lidge trade, and finally 6) the Valverde trade. I think we can say that he got at least 3/5 right. Maybe 3/5.

Let's start with Wolf. Wolf has produced a good ERA and WHIP as an Astro. For $3 million, the Astros were able to jettison Runelvys Hernandez and get a 2nd or 3rd starter. It took the pressure off of Roy (who, at the time, wasn't doing so hot) and Moehler to perform. He was worth it, especially if he nets the Astros another draft pick. Of course, the Astros also gave up Chad Reineke, who will probably make the majors, but who definitely was no star.

Next is Hawkins. The best part of this is that Hawkins was, for all intents and purposes, free. We gave up the Astros' only Single A all-star, but it was really not a big loss. Unfortunately, Hawkins probably won't be a compensatory-pick-eligible FA after this season, but we might be able to sign him again for pretty cheap, if nothing else.

Kazuo. I think this was probably Wade's biggest mistake. Matsui's injury history was a known element, and paying $4 million for a 2B who has yet to play 120 games in the States was stupid. With that said, Kazuo is also one of the few dependable offensive weapons the Astros have. It's too bad he won't even play in 100 games this year, because we needed him. Signing him wasn't a bad idea, but doing so for so much cash certainly was.

Tejada always pisses me off. Not because he's older than he said he was or because he probably did steroids (everyone probably knew about the former, and I don't give a shit about the latter). It's because his drop off in production has been so sudden. Last year, he posted an OPS+ of 109. The year before, however, it was 126. Now it's 95.

And I think it's something he can easily fix. The guy was awesome at the beginning of the season. He was fantastic. But he quickly tired. He's no longer in his 20s. He no longer is getting help from drugs. He needs to recognize that he just can't be the Miggy Tejada that played in 1152 games straight. He's said that he won't play winter ball in the DR this year, so that will help. And Coop will probably be more willing to rest him next year. I hope his number will improve next year, and I think they probably will. He still won't be the old Tejada, but he'll be above average.

Now, Wade traded for him. He correctly recognized that, provided they could find a SS like Tejada, Adam Everett was replaceable. I don't know if Everett should have simply been let go, but it was, at the time, a smart move.

The Lidge trade is slightly more complex. On the one hand, the Astros gave up one of the greatest relievers in the game. On the other hand, 2006 was a rough year for Brad, and while 2007 was an improvement, one could have made an argument (albeit a stupid one) that he wasn't going to go back to being "Lights-Out" status.

More importantly, he was a high-value player in his contract year. And Lidge, thanks partly to his treatment at the hands of Astros fans in 2006 and partly to the high-demand for closers, was going to demand a great deal of cash for 2009. Trading him was a good idea.

But we got Villareal, Geary, and Bourn in return. Villareal washed out, Geary has been a decent reliever, and Bourn has been awful most of the year. Bourn's improving, but it's going to take a lot to make the trade worth it.

Valverde is an interesting case. I've said before that Qualls could have easily performed the same duties for considerably less, and I still believe that to be the case. But Valverde wasn't a bad acquisition. And if the Astros are able to get good value for him in either the draft or on the trading block, then he'll be worth it.

Lastly, there's the farm system. Take a look at BR's minor league reference pages on the Astros affiliates. We have four players in the system with OPS values above .900: Our friend Bogusevic (OF; 24 y/o; AA Corpus), Luis Alvarez (C/1B/3B; 18 y/o; Venezuela), Nathan Metroka (OF; 21 y/o; Rk. Greenville), and Drew Sutton (2B; 25 y/o; AA Corpus). Of those, three are the products of the Hunsicker/Purpura era. Only Metroka is new (though Alvarez has only spent two years in the Astros' system).

But Wade has said he's going to rebuild the system. And the draft reflects that. The Astros weren't the biggest spenders, but they drafted mostly college kids and spent wisely. BP thinks the Castro selection was stupid, but he didn't have some of the signability issues of Smoak, allowing the Astros to spend elsewhere. He's expanding the Dominican program, which is going to be critical. Especially since what little the MLB has gained in Venezuela is probably going to go to hell because of the political situation.

Anyways, those guys I pointed out are interesting. We have two (Sutton and Bogusevic) who will probably be called up soon. I can imagine both getting jobs in Spring Training or being called up during the season. The other two are either in Rookie ball or in a foreign league. They're both several years away, but it gives us some hope.

Maybe it's just the euphoria of seeing the Astros make this run, but I'm filled with a strange sense of encouragement. Oddly, I'm feeling this a lot about Houston sports recently. Yeah, the Texans got their asses kicked last week, but they'll probably be okay. The Rockets are going to be killer this season. And maybe the Astros are going to be alright next year. Yeah, they'll still be an aging team with major issues, but maybe the Wade plan can work. We'll have to see.

Finally Back in NOLA

Got back yesterday. And now there's another fucking Hurricane gunning for the city. Shit.

On the bright side, the Astros continue to nullify any chance that they'll tank the season and show Ed Wade and Uncle Drayton that they need a lot more work to be a contender.

Tonight, Mark Saccomanno was called up for his debut. He's 28 (!), and, as I've said previously, it's kind of surprising they never called him up before. Anyways, he homered off of his first pitch. Pretty cool. Alberto Arias made his first start ever, and went 5 innings with 6 K's. Awesome.

So the Good Guys are 10 games over .500. Vastly overperforming all expectations (and run differential), so they'll probably come down pretty soon.

But it's entirely possible that the Astros could make it happen. All it takes is for three teams to collapse in the next two weeks. Not likely, but you can hope for it.

A Helluva Hullabaloo

Former Tulane star Bogusevic made Baseball Prospectus' weekly list of top prospects:

Brian Bogusevic, OF, Double-A Corpus Christi (Astros)
In the spring of 2005, Bogusevic was one of the top two-way players in the country, serving not only as Tulane's ace, but also as a tools-laden center fielder with above-average speed and power potential. A hamstring injury limited him primarily to mound duties, and the Astros took him in the first round as a power left-hander. While that didn't work out, his converting back to the outfield was something some scouts had been hoping for, as his batting practices were among the most impressive to be seen in a weak Astros chain. That conversion began in July after another brutal campaign on the mound, and it's been a smashing success. Over the weekend, Bogusevic went 7-for-11 to raise his averages to .359/.445/.553 in the Texas League, and while he had dropped well off of most Astros prospect rankings as a lefty, he's back on them—and very highly ranked—as an outfielder.

Sweet. God, I hope they call him up next week. We need hitting (and pitching) so bad. If we can just get a decent fucking hitter out of the farm system, I'll be placated until December. Please, God, let him be good. I don't know if I can take another JR Towles, not with so little hope elsewhere in the farm system. Just stop jerking us around, God. If he's bad, just make him go 0 for the rest of the season. We'll get the message. If he's good, make him blast a couple homers and get on base - that's all we ask.

Edit:

Footer over at Astros.com has said they don't plan on calling him up. That's cool, given that he only started hitting two months ago. Just one of those unrealistic fan dreams. We'll see what he's doing next year. I imagine he'll be playing fall and winter league stuff.

Astros get killed; Down on the Farm

Astros got knocked around. Diamondbacks 12-2. Wigginton got 3 hits, including a home run. Lance got an RBI double. Everyone else sucked donkey dong.

Chase Davidson has until tonight to sign. He was the Astros' 3rd round pick, and is the only pick in the Astros' first 16 to be unsigned. Rumor is that he will probably go to college.

It's tough to find statistics on high school prospects, especially beyond basic BA/OBP/SLG lines. But he posted a .500+ OBP his senior year, according to his high school website. They don't give any numbers to indicate whether or not that came from just monstrous hitting or from walking. I'd be more hopeful, of course, if his numbers indicated having a good eye, rather than simply knocking the hell out of the ball. Taking high school position players isn't as bad as taking a high school pitcher. At least there's some indication in high school of where a hitter might end up. But if a guy doesn't demonstrate a good eye in high school, it's doubtful he'll discover one in college or the minor leagues.


Lisa Gray over at the Astros Dugout has a pretty good list of Astros picks and where they are right now. Jason Castro has been unspectacular in his season thus far, posting a .278/.387/.354 line, and only getting 6 doubles and no home runs in his debut. What's at least hopeful is his 14 BB in 23 games (at least one was IBB; he was intentionally walked in his first PA). He can add power later; he probably can't add discipline.

A few players have been promoted already. Jacob Priday (who didn't post anything special in the ValleyCats, but drew 5 walks in his short time there) was promoted to Lexington after only 8 games. He's hit .256/.362/.333 in his first 13 games there. He's drawn 4 walks since starting. That's encouraging. He also strikes out a lot, which isn't. But there are far worse things than striking out. He also plays DH in Lexington, so maybe he'll be another Adam Dunn clone (one can only hope).

This one's really good: Phil Disher, whom we drafted as a catcher from the USC Gamecocks, is still in Low A after 53 games. In that time, he's drawn 21 walks and hit 12 doubles, 2 triples , and 11 dingers . He's posting a .304/.375/.541 line. Those triples might be why the Astros moved him to first base, not wanting him to lose speed. He's stolen one base, which is meaningless when you're a slugger, but speed on the basepaths is a plus. One of the many things that separates Lance from Bags is that Bagwell rarely got thrown out stretching a single into a double or a double into a triple. Lance, on the other hand, is a fat bastard. Hopefully the Astros will promote him soon.


The last dude on the farm I want to talk about is Brian Bogusevic: Ankiel'd former pitcher and fellow Tulane alum (kind of; I think he left before he graduated). Bogusevic was pretty awful as a pitcher, posting a career ERA of 5.50 in four seasons. This year the Astros gave up on his pitching career and took advantage of his batting skills. They moved him down to Salem, where he played 8 games before being called back up to Corpus Christi, this time as an OF. In 28 games, he's gone .377/.463/.638. He's also got a BB% of 13.75%, which is none too shabby. I wouldn't be surprised to see him called up in September.

From what I remember of the two or three Hooks games I've seen, he also plays CF. So if Bourn doesn't work out (and I'm increasingly worried that a combination of organizational incompetence and coaching will mean he won't), we might not have to play Spaz in center.

Alright, one more dude. Our friend JR Towles. JR sucks. I used to think that he was just overwhelmed by MLB pitching, but I think it goes much deeper than that. He's hitting well in AAA, going .275/.338/.517 in 36 games. But he's only walked 7 times in those games. That's the problem. Posting a BB% of 5 during AAA doesn't bode well for one's major league career. And his reactions to failure at the major league level seemed to indicate he was frustrated with it - ballplayers, particularly rookies, have to be able to take failure in stride. The good news is that Q has become the regular catcher. He isn't any good, offensively, but he has a 1990s-Ausmus-like arm.

So there is reason for hope. This draft class seems to be doing alright in their first few weeks/months in pro ball. Only time will tell if they work out, but hopefully these kids can get good quick. The Good Guys need them.

Edit:

Apparently Davidson has decided to not sign. Whatever.

Much more interestingly, Oakland signed their 7th round pick (Brett Hunter) to a seven-figure deal. Beane must have seen something really good for that to happen. Wow.