Economic Meltdown

It's funny, but people seem to like to work in hyperbole. This is apparent in any discussion about dictatorships (Pinoche suddenly becomes Hitler, Castro becomes Stalin), but it's also present in the sciences. Particularly those of the "social" variety.

The best example right now is in the discussion of the financial crisis. To hear politicians, both Democrats and Republicans, speak of this, it would seem that we are heading for a second Great Depression. In fact, that is essentially what has been said. Ben Bernanke, Paulson, and the rest of the government's economists have not only failed to diffuse this notion, they have (as best I can tell) aided in its diffusion.

This is a ridiculous idea. The "fail-safe" mechanism of the American (and world) economy - the Federal Reserve and Treasury - is still intact. Individual banks may fail, but the government can always issue more money. That will come at great cost, but at a much lesser one than either the "natural" result or the plan that so recently failed in Congress. And, really, we're looking at a fairly large but not massive loss of capital investment - a trillion dollars in a sea of some forty trillion. At the end of the financial day, the market will - somehow - reach equilibrium. If anything, we might just see a revitalization of American jobs as the dollar falls and foreign capital flows into the American system.

I think the main failure here has been in the American political system. Both sides have attempted to blame the other: Democrats blaming some vague failure of the "Bush economic policy," while Republicans conjuring up the "liberal government" bogeyman.

The Republicans are clearly engaging in little more than flinging bullshit, but the Democrats appear to be articulating a real critique. The problem is that the Democratic economic platform is not significantly different from that of the Republicans. The Bush Republicans, in fact, are advocating the exact same policy that the Democrats are supporting (albeit with a great deal of wailing and finger pointing). Both want a massive government bailout. The Democrats are just complaining about it more.

Really, what could have been done about the housing bubble? What would the Democrats have done differently in 2002 or 2003 to slow the boom? Their current critique stems from some abstract idea of a failure of the regulatory system - specifically the repeal of the Glass-Steagall act - but this idea is clearly a no-go.

Even if the Democrats want to say that the mortgage industry should have been more regulated, what could have been done? Would they have repealed the subsidy on mortgages? Would they have ordered the SEC or Fed to examine every mortgage issued? No, they would not have. Neither party wants to do anything different on this point. In fact, I think that if the Democrats had been in control in 2002, they would have simply taken credit for the boom, just as the Republicans did, and then pointed their fingers at the opposing party today - just as the Republicans are doing now.

And both sides do seem to be in consensus - banks should not be rewarded for their failures. But this desire for punishment seems to be related entirely to CEO and executive pay. This is absolute horseshit - a base appeal to populism that does absolutely fucking nothing. Yes, these men and women created this crisis. But so did home buyers, investors, and Congress. And demanding cuts to CEO pay is a laughable punishment. What would be an adequate punishment? Don't bail them out. Let there be natural consequences. Let the banks declare bankruptcy and be reorganized and bought by other, larger, better run banks. Let the market take its course.

Yeah, people will lose money. And nobody will like the results, mid-correction. But that's life. And the result will probably be better.

Playoff predictions and hopes

We'll see what happens in Minnesota tomorrow, but I don't really give a fuck what happens, anyways, so I'll go ahead and make my predictions.

The Dodgers will lose to the Cubs in five. Unless something epic happens, and then we will all laugh at Cubs fans and tell them to eat more shit, because it is becoming of them.

The Phillies will win over the Brewers. You can't win with only one good pitcher. I also imagine Lidge will give up one go-ahead homer in the series, which will cause everyone on ESPN to get a bad case "won't shut the fuck up."

The Phillies will win over the Cubs in the NLCS. Zambrano's arm is falling off.

The Rays will win over the Twins/White Sox. The Red Sox will lose to the Angels. The Angels will beat the Rays.

The Angels will beat the Phillies in the World Series, which will cause a truly epic riot in Philly. Awesome.

My "dream" playoff: Cubs lose to Dodgers, Phillies lose to Milwaukee. Milwaukee wins over LA. Rays lose to the Twins, Angels win over Boston. Anaheim loses to Twins. Twins win over Milwaukee. Why is this my favorite? Because I hate advertisers, and no one outside of Minnesota, Milwaukee, and those few absolute fans of baseball will watch that series. No one. And it will be sweet.

Hilarity and Madden 2009

I got Madden '09 this week. A few things:

1) It seems to be fucking impossible to get a sack in this game. Any time I get within grabbin' distance of the opposing pansy, he gets a magical pass off to his chosen WR. Gets my blood a-boilin'.

2) Running is a bitch.

3) Goddamn, but the corners in this game are fast. Can't pass into any coverage at all, lest I get picked off.

4) I really love the Battle Red uniforms (sans the red pants, of course).

I played a franchise season as the Texans. I just simmed through the regular season. Amazingly, the Texans went 10-6, making a wild card berth. Won the wild card against the Chargers, then I took on the Colts. The AFC Championship was between the Texans and the Patriots, in what was a truly epic passing battle in the middle of a fucking thunderstorm. My opponents for the Super Bowl? The motherfucking Cowboys.

Haven't played that one yet. Promises to be pretty cool.

Here's the funny thing about the Madden simmed playoffs. The teams that made it to the quarter-finals:

AFC:
Texans (of course)
Colts
Patriots
Steelers

NFC (here's where it gets good):
Cowboys (fine)
49ers (huh?)
Saints (maybe, I guess)
Lions (wat?)

And they say that the NFC is the stronger conference. Yeah, right.

Rockets gonna be awesome this year

Not to tempt fate or nothin'.

What's that? T-Mac isn't 100%? AAAAAHHHH! AAAAHHH! WHAT THE FUCK WE GONNA DO NOW? AH SHIT WE'RE FUCKIN SCREWED!!!!!

Okay, Matt, calm down. Pull yourself together. It's not that bad, right? T-Mac said it isn't that bad, and who are you to question Tracy McGrady?

Actually, I'm sure he'll be fine. We'll be fine.

ClutchFans has a lot of good videos up from the Rockets' media day. Undoubtedly, the best are Artest's interviews. He comes off as a lot less crazy than you'd think.

I can't believe people actually come to this blog

I don't link to anybody (and, conversely, am linked to by nobody). I list it only on the two or three profiles I have out there on the internet (Fark, facebook, SBN). Frankly, I'm surprised anybody comes across this damn thing.

So I find it really interesting that people do find this site. And, thanks to that little counter thing at the bottom of the page, I can see how many people come here, where their ISP is, and where they came from.

My favorite recent activity was some fellow in Merry Old England, who reached this site by way of AOL (I thought that was America On Line, and I thought it went out of business). He was searching for "Choke farm & invocation." I really have no idea what the hell that's about. But he found my post about the state of the Astros farm system. Looking at the little blerb that pops up in search listings for that post, I really wonder why he clicked on that. I like to think that maybe he saw my cool picture of Hunter Pence and Mark Loretta sliding into Luis Chavez and thought, "Gee, that Yank game sure seems like jolly good fun! I shall, from now on, endeavour to learn more about it, and I shall make these "Astros" of Grand Old Texas my favourite team!" Or maybe he saw my nonsensical ramblings and liberal use of the word "fuck" and decided that the British stereotypes of America are largely correct.

I even saw that some dude from Tulane was poking around here. It could have been me, but I've got some cookie that should prevent that sort of thing from happening.

I like this one from today: Some dude in Houston did a Google search for "the texans are fucking awful," which apparently lists Choke City as the top result. Again, I'd like to think my use of "fuck" helped out a bit. So he got my recent post about Gary Kubiak's inability to call time-out. I'd like to remind this visitor that, while today's loss was tragic and depressing, everything (except Kubiak's complete and total fucking blunder and the defense's inability in the 2nd half to tackle) was pretty good. Steve Slaton and Matt Schaub give reason for hope. And the Rockets' training camp starts this week (I think), so soon T-Mac, Yao, and the Tru Warier will take our minds off of the Texans' utter suckage, just as the Dream, Pigpen, and Bags took our minds off of the Oilers in the mid 1990's. Everything comes full circle.

Bill Simmons is a dumbass

I know, everyone understands that Bill Simmons is a "homer" and a fool. And I even agree with Deadspin's Leitch that sports reporters don't simply become impartial as soon as they take a job. But Bill Simmons is employed by the dominate national sports broadcaster to just spew homer-istic nonsense on a website and then call it "content."

From his newest bullshit:

Only cities with locals who can play hockey outside in the winter can have an NHL team. Look, I want to like the NHL again. It looks magnificent in HD, and really, that's all that matters in life. For the umpteenth straight year, I'm going to advocate a 22-team league: two 11-team conferences, one in Canada, one in America, only in cold-weather cities (no ifs, ands or buts). That will give us more rivalries, deeper teams and a higher quality of play.

See, the problem is that we all know that Simmons didn't start "liking" the NHL until last year, when the Bruins made the playoffs for the first time in whenever. Hell, he admitted to it back then. So why does it matter if Boston is in a cold-weather area? It apparently didn't matter to him before six months ago. It's not as if, three years ago, Simmons woke up one morning and thought, "Gee, I should go see a Bruins-Kings game. I know that my hometown team is probably going to lose, but I sure do fondly remember playing hockey as a child. Seeing my beloved Bruins will bring back those memories. Ahh, to youth..."

Frankly, I don't really give a shit about (aboot?) hockey. I've been to games, and they're fun and all, but I just don't care. Yeah, that's probably because I never played it as a kid (and I couldn't really skate with wheels, either), but I really never played baseball much (just the wiffle and soft varieties, really), and I still care about that. I probably wouldn't care about it if I hadn't grown up seeing the Astros, but there you have it. People care about what they've been exposed to. I'm sure there are plenty of people in Los Angeles, Tampa Bay, and Phoenix who really do care about hockey. They either lived somewhere where they played it as children or have seen it enough to give a shit.

In fact, I'm pretty sure plenty of people care about hockey in those cities. Why? Because I can look at the attendance figures to see what the fuck is going on. What do we see with those figures?

Well, the bottom five teams in home attendance are Florida (hot), New Jersey (cold), Chicago (cold), Washington (cold), and Columbus (cold). From what I understand of it, Chicago is also one of the oldest clubs in the NHL. But they're still only selling 82% of their seats.

Now, I'll admit that the devotion of fans in Carolina is likely much less than that of Toronto. And that's to be expected - Americans just aren't into hockey as much as Canadians. But would Simmons say that New England cares about the Bruins as much as they care about the Red Sox? Fuck no.

I've seen similar arguments with other sports. The most brazen (I think) was one on Fark arguing for the contraction of the MLB to only the original franchises. What? Why would anyone want this? Baseball is undergoing a renaissance - stadiums are filled with fans and TV deals are more lucrative than ever before. And it's at least partly the work of the expansion.

More to the point, why do some cities deserve MLB (or NHL, NFL, NBA) teams, while others do not? Why would Minneapolis keep the Twins, while Houston would lose the Stros? Granted, it's tough to come up with cities whose "main" team is their expansion baseball team, but it's possible to find. Houston is probably the best example, though that is largely the product of the Oilers leaving town, the Astros going through roughly a decade of playoff baseball, and the Texans' continued suckage. The Oilers undoubtedly dominated Houston prior to about 1995, but, hey, shit changes.

The point is this: I get tired of this bullshit from a bunch of Yankees. I think it's our fault, too. If the expansion-era teams (whether in the NHL or MLB) didn't do so well, recently, then the older franchises' fans wouldn't get so pissed off. They long for the "Golden Age" when only teams from the East Cost dominated, and everyone from middle America could go fuck themselves. That's the truth of it - a sad nostalgia for a time these assholes never lived through.

And that's why Simmons didn't give a shit about the Bruins a year ago - they weren't winning and the weren't the Sox, so why should he care about them? Same with the Celtics. Same with the Patriots a decade ago. That's the fucking truth.

Kubiak should be fucking burned in effigy.

He fucking blew that game. Awful. Just fucking awful.

It's the first fucking quarter. The Jaguars DON'T SEND THEIR FUCKING PUNT TEAM ONTO THE FIELD YOU DUMB FUCKS, and Kubiak DOESN'T FUCKING CALL TIME FUCKING OUT WHAT THE FUCK IS WRONG WITH YOU YOU DUMB MOTHERFUCKING ASSHOLE?!! So the Jaguars snap directly to their FB, who easily beats our punt return team WHO WERE ON THE FIELD BECAUSE KUBIAK IS THE DUMBEST MOTHERFUCKER EVER and gets the TD. And the defense just gave up in the second half, giving the Jaguars 17 points. Fucking tackle, for christsakes.

Scaub looked good. The receivers looked good. Slaton was wonderful. What the fuck more could you ask for? Oh yeah, a defense and a coach with a fucking brain. Fuck. The Texans tie it up to go to OT, but they lose the coin toss and the game. Fucking hell, I hate being a Houston fan.

Ausmus hit a two-run homer in his final game as a Good Guy. I wrote this song for him in honor of his service for the last decade. It goes to the tune of "Mandy."

Oh Bradley,
well you came and you hit like a girl,
but you played great defense,
oh Bradley

I like it a lot.

I'm beginning to think that maybe Backe doesn't want to pitch next year.

I didn't watch the game yesterday, and, from what I read, it was pretty brutal. Backe got it to 9-0 Braves in the 2nd before being pulled. Josh Anderson got two homers off of him.

Over the summer, I played MLB 2K8 (it was pretty awful; they really need to fix the graphics engine in that game, because everything would slow down for no reason). I had an Astros franchise where I actually won the World Series (I did a lot of trades and hired a lot of starting pitching). Throughout the season, I had Backe in the bullpen where he couldn't fuck too much up. At the end of the 2008 season, the game always had him retire. I think the game realizes something I didn't.

Backe is pretty fucking awful this year. He has given up way too many homers, walked too many, etc. Essentially, he's done all that he could to fuck up. Last night's game was an illustration of that.

I don't know if Backe will be back next year. He's just as hittable as Moehler (actually, he's slightly less hittable if you look at his K/9 rate), but at least Moehler doesn't walk hitters and usually keeps the ball in the yard.

Maybe Backe will be better next year. We can only hope, because the Astros don't have much else.

Michrochosm for the Season

In my commentary on the Astros' elimination from the wild card race, I didn't really comment on the game. It was pretty amazing.

Kazuo started off the night on a tear, and he led off with a double. Bourn laid down a bunt, reaching second on a throwing error while Kazuo scored.

Wigginton hit a homer to right field that was (for the second night in a row!) stolen by the right fielder. This time, however, Francouer was unable to get a hand on the ball, partially in thanks to a fan who grabbed the ball first. Interestingly, he had Wiggy sign his program before the game.

Bourn hit a double at one point. Tejada grounded out. Then Lance came to the plate. He slugged a deep shot into center field that would have been outta Wrigley or Cincinatti, but it was caught near the base of Tal's Hill. As soon as I saw it, I thought, "You know, Bourn might be able to score on this." Well, whaddya know? He sprinted rounded 3rd and slid home, but the throw wasn't really that close. It was a truly amazing display of speed from Bourn. As always with Michael Bourn, you just say, "If only he could get on base more often..."

But the Braves would bring the game within one when LaTroy Hawkins gave up his first earned run as an Astro. So the Astros went into the 9th with the score 4-3. Papa Grande came out, but game up the tying run. It was his first blown save in a while.

So Erstad came up with 1 out in the home 9th as a pinch hitter for Valverde. He swung at the first pitch, sending the ball into around the 6th or 7th row of seats in right field. Pretty sweet.

It really was a kind of michrochosm for the season. We gained ground early, lost it in the middle and at the very end, finally displaying a specatuaclar burst with time expiring. Unfortunately, it just wasn't enough to save the season.

It was a pretty fun ride, though.

Eliminated

Erstad hit a walkoff homer tonight, but the Brewers won over the Cubs 5-1. Fuck.

Ed Wade better do his fucking job right over the winter. He's on fucking thin ice with me (not that means anything). Fuck.

wat

Dickie J's blog is always a good source of bullshit. From today's entry:

GM Ed Wade blew up the roster last winter, and in the end, gave us an interesting season.

What? Ed wade didn't "[blow] up the roster." He sold off some bench players, back-of-the-bullpen pitchers, go-nowhere AAA "prospects," and one of the best relievers in the game for an all-star shortstop (who tanked the season). Methinks that Dickie's definition of "blow up" is suspect.

Let's read on:

They ranked in the top five in OPS in just two positions--first baseman and left field. They were in the top five in OBP in the same two positions. They were near the bottom of the NL in production in center field, third base and catcher.

Wade's first difficult question will concern Ty Wigginton and Michael Bourn.

Bourn I can understand - he's been absolutely awful this year and will probably lose his roster spot to Bogusevic sometime next season. But Wiggy's been nails all season long. Even before he had that ridiculous August, the guy was 3rd in OBP on the team.

Here's why we've gotten so little production from 3rd - Coop doesn't play Wiggy every day. He's played the last month in left, and even before then, Coop felt compelled to give Blum or Loretta playing time at third. Wigginton is not why the Astros had poor production at the left corner. He's why it's not completely dreadful.

Here's the thing: Wiggy has only had 419 PA's this year. That's the lowest he has had since he was called up in 2002. The guy is good. He can play. Just put him in, dammit!

The unfortunate cruel realities of baseball.

The Astros won what should have been a blowout, but Alberto Arias and Fernando Nieve came into the 9th and gave up five runs to make it 8-6 Astros with only 1 out. Fortunately, Coop had Valverde ready to go, and Papa Grande got two Ks (but gave up a single) and the save.

Unfortunately, the Brewers and Mets both won last night, so the WC remains tied, and the Astros' elimination number has decreased to 1. Barring another miracle, this one is over. We would need botht the Brewers and Mets to lose their next three games, while the Astros would need to win the next three, force the 9/29 game with the Cubs, and win that. Then, all three would have to play a tiebreaker of some sort. Stranger things have happened.

Not dead yet!

The Astros' elimination is still 2. We need a win from the Wizard and losses from both the Brewers and Mets. That's no small order. The Brewers are collapsing, but they're facing the Pirates. Let's hope for the best.

And the Rockets' training camp is coming up soon. Daryl Morey matched Landry's offer from Charlotte, so our resident awesome PF not named Luis Scola is going to be back this year. And it's a pretty sweet deal, too - $3MM/year for two years, with a team option for a third year.

The current debate is on what the Rockets are going to do for a starting lineup. Most think that Adelman will find a starting five of: Alston, T-Mac, Battier, Scola/Landry, and Yao. There was some talk about just benching Alston and making T-Mac the primary ball-handler, putting Artest in SG/SF. That's not a terrible idea, I suppose. Besides, Adelman's system will ensure that all of the Rockets will get playing time.

I'm feeling really good about the coming NBA season. T-Mac, Yao, and Artest are an awesome big three, and we have fantastic talent amongst the role-players. Gonna be cool!

Not today, Mets!

Puma hits a homer, and Randy Wolf and the bullpen pitch a 10-hit (!) shutout. Hot damn.

Also awesome: Mets lose to Cubs. Brewers win against the Pirates, so they are tied with New York for the NL Wild Card. The Astros are still 3 games back, though.

The Astros' goal is simple - win all of their games. After that, just hope for the Mets and Brewers to continue collapsing.

Let's go 'stros, baby.

Just in case you didn't notice...

...the Astros' elimination number is 2. So, if the Mets win and the Astros lose tomorrow, then the season is over.

Two interesting demonstrations of baseball's traditional bullshit last night:

1) Wigginton's error.

Note that, had Carlos been playing LF, then he probably would have been nowhere near that ball. So Ty was already doing something right in that he was able to field the ball. Unfortunately, he misplayed it terribly, so he got a 3-base error. Errors are bullshit.

2) Wandy's loss.

Both of the Wand man's runs were unearned, the product of Wigginton's misplayed ball. So, in the eyes of the scorer, Wandy didn't give up any runs.

But he still gets the loss. Why? If both were "unearned" (not his fault), then why is he on the hook?

Of course, why would anyone say that giving up 2 runs in a game is bad? That's an excellent performance.

Wins are bullshit.

Weekly Political Post

I've found myself growing less and less interested in US politics. I still think about ideological matters and the international system, but I think the fact that neither party seems to articulate what I feel to be an ethical foreign policy really makes me disinterested in the system.

But I always get a kick out of reading Ron Paul. The guy is absolutely nuts. And the left's brief infatuation with him last year only further convinced me that my compatriots don't know what the fuck they really believe.

The man is the embodiment of everything I loathe in American politics - unthinking, gut feeling political theory brought on by idiotic outrage and terrible pamphlets. He voted against the intervention in Kosovo. He voted against US recognition of the massacre at Srebrenica. He voted against intervention in Iraq. He wants a gold standard. He wants to deregulate virtually everything. The man is a throwback to the mid-90s survivalists. I mean, I'm a believer in the free-market, too, but only as a means to a greater society down the line (my Marxist roots just won't die, dammit). Capitalism is not a catechism, it is a system born of the interactions of billions of individuals and firms. It is a beautiful thing, but it is more like a Bonzai tree than an oak - it must be nurtured and shaped. Of course, I doubt that the market interventions the Keynsians prefer will amount to much - Friedman was probably right in that the market just can't be shaped that way. But this bailout is necessary, if the US doesn't want to suffer massive economic problems in the coming years.

So CNN gives him a soapbox, upon which he can screech about the impending credit bailout. And he does his typical "Watch out I'm fuckin crazy!" routine.

To be fair, he's largely correct. The federal government's subsidy program helped to make the housing bubble larger and costlier. But this was probably a failure of banking regulatory agencies and the market in general. If Wall Street had not backed a system of mortgage investments the equivalent of junk bonds, we wouldn't be in this mess. This is a market failure created by the interactions of firms, not one created by the government.

And getting rid of "big government" is the exact opposite of what is needed. More regulation is necessary, not less.

Oh, and the inestimable Christopher Hitchens has a great argument about why Obama is a fucking retard. My favorite part:

Obama does not, and perhaps even cannot, represent "change" for the very simple reason that the Democrats are a status quo party.

My thoughts exactly, Hitch.

This country is torn between, on the one hand, a bunch of conservatives who are scared of any real change (demographically, politically, internationally, economically) and, on the other, a group of self-proclaimed "liberals" (they are anything but) who are really just a voice of meaningless pap. The Democratic and Republican parties have once agin become little more than the voice of competing regions - the Democrats now giving voice to the economically declining but politically powerful regions of the West and East coasts, as well as the Rust Belt, while the Republicans representing the economically booming but culturally conservative Sun Belt.

I can tell you what I want: a party that espouses a true ideology of free markets and peoples. No more barriers to free trade across borders, and no more barriers to free movement across them, either. Greater worker representation in the workplace (workplace democracy is the ideal, here) and in the political sphere. A willingness to confront our enemies abroad - whether they be of the Russian imperialist or Iranian fascist varieties. A commitment to support our allies - the Iraqis, Kurds, Israelis, and oppressed peoples everywhere. An ethical treatment of domestic situations - ban executions and abortion, make marijuana legal, make Gay and Lesbian marriages a reality.

The problem, of course, is that no party could come up with this plan. Workers are generally against free-trade plans (it's short-sighted but it's the way things are). The left in America is usually against any sort of intervention abroad (Kosovo was a controversial exception, of course). And the abortion thing always pisses people off.

Meh. Whatcha gonna do?

More pitching stuff

MLB Trade Rumors (which is usually wrong, so take it for what you will) has an interesting post up about two Astros, current and former: Hawkins and Pettitte.

Hawkins would be a decent pick up, provided he comes cheap enough. His performance in Houston has been absolutely ridiculous. Of course, that's probably helped by a small (17.0 IP) sample size and a healthy dose of luck. But he's struck out better than one an inning while in the Houston uniform, and he's had spectacular control. Whatever it is, he's been nails since he came over. And I say that as a guy who thought he was going to be awful. I thought he would show up, give up plenty of runs, and then get released next season. As long as he isn't signed to a long term or expensive contract, Hawkins should be in the pen next year. And he seems plenty comfortable here (he made up those retarded "Bud killed us" shirts), so maybe he'd like to stay.

Pettitte is an interesting choice. We're all fond of the guy, no doubt. He was like a less horrific version of Roger. But the issues that faced him in Houston - primarily injury concerns - are only worse now. If it's any good news, he'll probably still give us the discount he gave us in 2004, and his worsening ERA and W-L total will make him a little easier on Uncle Drayton's pocketbook.

Looking at his FanGraphs stats, I think he might be the victim of poor luck this season. His K/9 IP (never really his forte, but still historically decent) has actually increased, while his walk rate is down. The main concern is that his HR/9 has increased slightly (though it's still well below average). His BABIP has risen at roughly the same rate as his BAA, so it may just be that having the poor Yankees defense behind him has hurt him slightly.

He's not going to be the Andy Pettitte that he was in 2005, but that's not really what's neccesary. What's needed is a #3 guy to hold up the rotation. And if Pettitte can stay healthy and eat innings at a good rate, then that's all we really need. He'd be a specatacular improvement over Backe or Wandy or Moehler.

Wolf is an intriguing case. I'd say that his supplemental pick is worth quite a bit to the Astros, particularly if they are going for more FAs over the winter. And while he's been good in Houston (108 ERA+), I'm not really sure if he can do that again next year. If the Astros have a Oswalt-Sheets-Pettitte-Wolf-Wandy rotation, things are looking really good. Hell, we could trade Moehler to some sucker at that point. Whatever they give us is too much.

Wait and see.

Ben Sheets and the Astros

Without a doubt, this is going to be an interesting offseason for baseball. Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu are probably going to be allowed to walk from the Yankees. Ben Sheets, CC Sabathia, Jon Garland, AJ Burnett, and maybe John Lackey will all be on the market. The Marlins are likely to trade virtually everyone on their ML roster (except, of course, Hanley Ramirez). We're liable to see the first female GM in Seattle. Very interesting, indeed.

So, the conventional wisdom amongst Astros fans has been that the team needs pitching, and fast. I'm inclined to agree, but I think our hitting is pretty fucking awful, too. Tejada sucks. Pence sucked most of the year. Bourn, too. JR Towles and Q suck. I suppose the position that will get the most returns quickest will be catcher, but I don't know whom we'd be able to get. There was some talk about Gregg Zaun, but I don't know if he'd really be the solution. (Hey, did you know that Gregg Zaun has a website? And it's really overdone, featuring Zorro and - oh hell yeah, is that Rush? I think I'm in love). He's going to be 38 next year, but I suppose we'd only really need him for a year or two. Signing him to a one-season deal might be worth it.

A better, longer term solution would be trading for one of the myriad catchers in the Rangers system. That obviously creates problems if Castro ever makes it up to the Majors, but that's not really much of a problem. Having too much talent is a good thing. Of course, the farm system is so delicate right now that trading away what little talent we have at the AA and AAA levels would probably be disastrous.

Over at the Crawfish Boxes, there's a pretty interesting discussion of Sheets' arm issues. As we all know, Sheets problems are first and foremost a result of Ned Yost's awful staff management (Though Dave Lopez - Yost's predecessor - deserves a lot of the blame, as well). He has accumulated a startling number of Pitcher Abuse Points over the years. For a guy like Sabathia, that's no big deal. For Sheets, however, it's a disaster waiting to happen.

So when he went down with another arm injury, I immediately thought that Sheets was not a good option for the 2009 Astros. I'm not as sure of that now. He might be worth it, if signed to a one- or two-year deal. But anything longer is asking for trouble.

One of the funnier suggestions (from where I heard this, I'm no longer sure) I've heard is this potential Astros 2009 rotation: (1) Roy Oswalt, (2) Ben Sheets, (3) MARK PRIOR!, (4) Andy Pettitte, (5) Wandy Rodriguez/Brian Moehler/Brandon Backe.

Talk about a gimpy rotation! Shit, if that made it through the first month unscathed, I'd be ecstatic.

In short, I don't really know what the Astros should do this offseason. If more of our star players were available for trade, I'd say we should begin trading immediately. But since so many are locked up for another few seasons, we might as well begin getting talent. Sheets might be worth it, Jon Garland or Lackey would be great. Burnett would be cool. But I honestly don't know what they should do at this point. We'll see what's going to happen.

Why the fuck did he even bother showing up?

At this point, I'm beginning to think the Rosenfels supporters are right. Schaub killed us today. The running game was surprisingly good, defense was decent. But Schaub was just awful. He was the opposite of David Carr (but just as shitty) - he spent too little time in the pocket, making terrible throws and failing to get anything done. Christ, it was bad. 3 interceptions (to be fair, one came after a blown false start call). Two fumbles. Just awful.

The good news is that the Texans have found their new running back. Steve Slayton was awesome. He rushed 17-116 (6.8 yds/carry) against one of the best run-stopping defenses in the league. Even if you don't count his 50 yard run, he's still got a 3.9 average. Damn fine. The guy was absolutely fearless, diving through his blocking and gaining yards after contact. That takes guts, especially for a guy who's only 5' 9". That's shorter than I am! I wouldn't have the balls to do that, but he took on the Titans defense head-on. Hells yeah!

Here's the real problem the Texans had: capitalizing on their gains. Houston only had 26 fewer yards than Tennessee. But they were totally unable to do anything with it. Schaub just couldn't complete a pass to save his life, so any time the Texans found themselves in the red zone, they had to settle for 3.

God, I hate the Titans. I hope, when Adams dies, he fucking burns in hell. It's stupid to wish eternal damnation on a man for a sports team, but I want at least that much from the universe. It's only fair at this point.

Shut the hell up about Sage

Watching the Texans-Sister Fuckers game. And Schaub just threw a (disputed) int. This will inevitably get the "Start Rosenfels" crowd going.

Here's the problem with Rosenfels: all of his (moderate) success against opposing teams has been in the second halves of blowouts. The Pittsburgh game is a great example. And last year against the Titans, where he threw several interceptions and only then did he lead an unsuccessful rally against a prevent defense.

So they kept the ruling on the field (kind of iffy). 2nd and 10, and Mario's offsides. 2nd and 5, and DeMeco Ryans recovers a fumble. So we got it back, at least.

Matt Schaub really needs to step up. He's rushing his passes and throwing incompletions and interceptions. He's gotten good protection so far, though. So maybe he'll do better.

Problem Number 2

Looks like there will be a stream of the Texans game. Cool.

But the Astros game starts at 12:35. And the Wizard's getting the start. Shit.

AND I've got to finish reading for my history and philosophy courses, as well as finish homework for Russian. And I'd rather not have to pack it all in tonight. Decisions, decisions.

Problem Number 1

The Texans take on the BESF's tomorrow. Of course, the NOLA CBS affiliate is going to show the Atlanta game in that time slot, instead. Hopefully somebody will have a stream going tomorrow.

I tell you what, the NFL has the most ass-backwards stance on internet distribution and content. The MLB seems to understand that the more content is put on the internet, the more opportunities for fans to consume baseball. And the more they see clips and highlights, the more they will want to see games on TV, online, or in person. So the MLB offers streaming video, to boot. And, it seems they will finally be rid of the stupid blackout rules next year, too.

In contrast, the NFL still seems to think of the internet as a new, scary distribution mechanism with no chance for profit - a place inhabited entirely by computer hackers and comic book geeks. They don't seem to get that everyone uses the internet these days, and the demand for football is greater than ever.

So, instead of offering streaming webcasts of out-of-market games on NFL.com, they choose to strike exclusivety deals with DirecTV. People unwilling to pay hundreds of dollars extra each year just to see their favorite team play 13 games are fucked. And God forbid if you want to watch those games on your computer. Then you have to fork out another $100.

Further proof that most businesses just don't know what the fuck they're doing. If the NFL had any competition, this kind of shit wouldn't happen.

Puma for NL MVP!

Over at Beyond the Box Score, they've posted individual wins-over-replacement values for individual players in the NL. Three Astros are mentioned: Carlos Lee, Miguel Tejada, and Lance Berkman.

Tejada has given the Astros 1.3 wins over replacement (this includes fielding). To quote from BtBS post, "You'll have to wait until the AL article to see where Luke Scott falls. Hint: better than 1.3 wins above replacement." At the time of the trade, the 5-for-1 deal was widely seen as an okay move. If nothing else, Tejada would offer a major improvement (offensively) over Everett.

But Luke Scott has turned into something of a decent hitter. He's posted a 119 OPS+ this year, and he's done well in Baltimore. It's unfortunate that Scott was traded away, but there really was no place for him in the Astros' outfield.

Carlos Lee ranked #9 in the NL. Cool. El Caballo continues to be a fantastic hitter, even if his contract is ridiculous.

Lee is the anti-Utley: bad fielder, great clutch hitter.

That's the other thing about this list - it adjusts for "clutchness." I don't really buy that such a thing exists in baseball, but whatever. I suppose it's a decent thing to look for in an MVP. Good for Carlos and the Astros.

Number one is, of course, Albert Pujo - what? It's not?! Who's the winningest hitter in the National League, baseball stat guys?

1. Lance Berkman (8.6 wins) -- Even without his great clutch performance, he managed to give Pujols a run for his money, trailing by one win in WPA/LI and only half a win in the field. But by being clutch to the tune of 1.8 wins, Berkman was able to do more for his team than even Prince Albert did. But yes, Randy Wolf was the catalyst for the Astros' playoff chase.

Well, whaddya know? Turns out that the Big Puma is the most valuable player this year. Turns out that walking a lot and hitting doubles and homers when it counts makes you pretty valuable. And Berkman walks a lot and slugs when it counts, because THAT'S WHAT PUMAS DO, DAMMIT!

Oh yeah, he walked three times last night. Didn't get a hit, but Hunter could learn a thing or two from Lance.

Big Z just can't get the fuck over it

The Cards gave out a monster ass-whuppin to the Cubs last night. As an Astros fan, I despise both teams, but this is great. And, as I've said before, at least Cardinals fans have some class. Fuck Cubs fans - bunch of rich, white poseurs, if you ask me.

The best part? Zambrano gave up 7 runs in 1 and 2/3 innings of shit. Including a grand slam to Adam Kennedy. Hi-fucking-larious. If you give up the 3 run homer to Albert Pujols, it's understandable - he's Albert Fucking Pujols - but giving up a home run to Kennedy (his SECOND of the season, btw) is just a joyous celebration of terrible pitching.

Oh, and Cubs fans made the "He just got back from Venezuela after his grandmother's funeral. He was tired and had his mind on other things" excuse. Gee, I wonder which entire fucking team that sounds like? But the Astros should have just cowboyed up, right? Big Z, smarmy dumbass that he is, made plenty of "they need to just play ball" comments after his no-hitter, but somehow that doesn't fucking apply to him. Fuck you, Chicago.

Several Reasons Why Andrew Strickert Doesn't Know What the Fuck He's Talking About

Over at MVN, there's an article on why football is the most popular sport in America. Now, I think there are a lot of things wrong with this article. First, it's not really about why people shifted their entertainment consumption away from baseball and towards football, nor is it about why football took over high school athletics programs, despite the relatively high operating costs involved with the sport. It's really about why Andrew Strickert doesn't like watching anything but football. And those reasons are stupid.

Now, don't get me wrong. I love football. I'm from Southeast Texas, where every other sport is a distant second to football. But my first love was basketball (my dad's hometown in rural Louisiana didn't have the money for football, so basketball was the sport of choice), and I think football has significant problems as a sporting event. So let's get started, shall we?

1. Football is a team sport. Twenty-two men are in action on every play.

Pretty much. But it's not as if the FB is going to see much action on most plays. Really, the primary "stars" on the field are usually the QB, RB, and the WRs. Everyone else just plays secondary rolls.

Contrast that to baseball, when nobody moves on most plays, which consist mainly of two guys playing pitch and catch. Every now and then, someone will hit the ball to a fielder, who will sometimes have to (gasp!) actually run to get the ball.

Yeah, baseball is primarily a duel between the pitcher and batter. Probably 90% of all camera shots in a baseball broadcast include only four men: the pitcher, batter, catcher and home plate umpire.

But everyone gets their turn at the plate. Nobody (except for the AL) gets to sit out the action. Compare that to the special teams in football. And are you really going to say that the center participates in the same level of excitement as the QB? What about the long snapper?

Or contrast it to basketball, when four guys clear out so one guy can operate one on one.

If you do this at any level in amateur or professional basketball, you will lose. If all you have is one (or even just two) primary scorers on your team, you will lose the game when the defense double or triple teams him. Basketball - particularly in extreme passing offenses like the Princeton Offense - relies on every player doing his part. And, even if you've got Kobe on your team, you can't just give him the ball every time.

One man can’t dominate a football game the way a baseball, basketball or hockey player can.

Yes they can. An incredible QB can truly dominate a defense.

A Nolan Ryan could throw a no-hitter or a Roger Clemens could strike out twenty batters.

Well, Ryan's no-hitters involved a good bit of defense behind him, while Roger Clemens' 20K performances still required defense on all the hitters he didn't strike out.

But, more importantly, neither Ryan nor Clemens could win the game by themselves. Ryan needed guys like Cheo Cruz to actually, you know, score runs. Clemens couldn't even bat for himself until he came to Houston.

A Michael Jordan could isolate one on one against a defender to dominate a basketball game.

No he couldn't. Jordan was a great player. #1 or #2 all-time. But even he couldn't take on five professional players and win. He needed other scoring threats to lessen the pressure on him. He needed other defenders to help him stop the opposition. He couldn't just dominate by himself.

A goalie can shutout the opposing hockey team.

Granted, I've only been to a few hockey games in my life, but I'm pretty sure the goalie can't (1) score all by himself, or (2) defend properly without other defenders.

But it takes an entire team effort to win a football game.

In EXACTLY THE SAME WAY THAT OTHER SPORTS DO!

2. Football has a level playing field. At least it’s more level than the other so-called “major” sports. It has a hard salary cap, not a soft cap like baseball, which is a joke, or basketball, which circumvents a hard cap with the “Larry Bird Rule”. I know there’s some kind of cap in hockey but don’t know what it is or how it works. I don’t really care to know either.

I'm kind of tired of this meme. If you look at the teams that have made the playoffs over the years, all the major sports leagues have a rough sort of parity.

Moreover, this isn't really about why football is popular - it's about why the NFL is popular.
Football has parity, of sorts. The teams with the best records have the toughest schedules the next year while the weaker teams play easier schedules, at least in theory. The worst teams get to select first in each round of the draft. None of those lotto picks like the NBA has, either. The weak sisters have a chance every year to improve enough to contend with the big boys. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, for example, went from worst in 2006 to first in 2007 in their division.

Yeah, this happens in every other league. And the lotto picks are to prevent crap like the Bush Bowl from happening (even if the Texans didn't end up picking Reggie Bush that year - thank God - teams do start to give up late in the season to get better picks. Of course, this looks really bad for the Texans, who had no plans to draft Bush but still lost to a 49ers squad that was trying to throw the game). And Tampa Bay is able to pull off that sort of turnaround because the NFC South is awful. Try doing that in the AFC South. I don't care if you draft the next LT, the Texans are still going to get their ass kicked. So much for parity.

3. Football has instant replay. If an official makes a questionable call, or a close call, there’s an opportunity to correct any mistakes. The last time I saw a baseball or basketball game, they didn’t do that. The last I heard, the refs in those sports strongly opposed the use of technology or instant replay.

Again, this is a reason for why the NFL is popular. And there are two problems with this.

1) It's not as if the Canadians, when inventing this sport in the 1890s, had this little exchange:

JULIAN: Hey, Ricky. What are we going to do if some hoser ref blows a call?
RICKY: How aboot if we have instant replay, eh? The ref will stick his head in a box, and he'll see what actually happened!
JULIAN: Great! Let's go eat maple syrup and drink some Molson, eh?

2) I seriously doubt anyone decides their sports-entertainment consumption habits based off of instant replay. Nobody is going to say, "Gee, I can choose between baseball and football tonight. What do I want to see? Not any baseball, because they don't have instant replay! Fuck that!"

4. Football is played, usually, outdoors and in all weather conditions. I’ve sweated off ten pounds and been baked like a lobster at football games, I’ve been drenched and soaked in rainstorms and I’ve gotten pretty darned cold at times. This is a commonality which football fans share, not to mention the players. The game goes on, regardless of weather conditions.

I'm not really clear with where you're going with this...

A few sprinkles of rain will cancel a baseball game. 100% of all NBA games are played indoors. Kudos to hockey for experimenting with an outdoor game last year. Maybe they’ll continue the practice and in doing so, try to make a hockey fan out of me.

...so what?

5. There’s a strict drug policy in the NFL. Baseball has become a joke with all of its steroid users, not to mention recreational drugs. How many strikes did Steve Howe get? Seven? Wow, a “seven strikes and you’re out” policy. Basketball isn’t much better.
Baseball is begining to fix its steroid "problems" (again, why is steroid use an issue? There's no difference between performance enhancement through drugs and performance enchancement through equipment). And don't trumpet the NFL's drug policy as a victory. What the NFL did to Ricky Williams was a tragedy.

6. The NFL has a sixteen-game regular season. Each game means a lot. Baseball has 162 games. Basketball and hockey both have 80-something, I think. They have so many games that the importance of each game is diluted when considered in context with the entire regular season. When a NFL team loses just one game, it’s the equivalent of a baseball team having a ten-game losing streak.

A baseball team that wins 100 games is considered “great” by most baseball fans. That also means the team lost 62 times. A 100-62 record (.617) in baseball is roughly equivalent to a 10-6 (.625) record in the NFL. That winning percentage isn’t considered to be great in the NFL. Ask Cleveland Browns fans. The Browns had a 10-6 record last year and didn’t even make the playoffs.

This is actually a fair critique, though probably not for the reasons that Andrew thinks it is.

Well, that's not true for basketball. But for baseball it's pretty good.

The problem is that the level of luck involved in the typical baseball game is so high. It's less of an issue with other sports. So winning 60% of baseball games makes you pretty fucking good.

And I can see why that might be a problem. Individual games in baseball are often decided purely by luck. Berkman can't just decide to hit a homer on his next AB. It's just not that simple.

Of course, the NY Giants went 10-6 last year and won the Super Bowl, so what the fuck does any of that mean?

My point is not that baseball or basketball is "better" than football. That would be a meaningless statement. My point is that the reasons Strickert gives for why the US population now spends considerably more money and time watching, playing, and consuming football than it does baseball are simply not satisfactory.

Well... fuck

Another depressing loss in a series of depressing losses. At this point, the dream is dead. Here is the list of milestones I will be watching for until the end of the Astros' season:

1) Berkman's homer streak.

Berkman currently is tied for a rather obscure record: he and Lou Gehrig hold the record for longest streak of home runs hit on the same day. The Puma has hit a home run on every September 21st since 2001. If he hits a home run this Sunday, he will break the record. Cool, if meaningless.

2) Player development.

Pence, Bourn, Reggie, Maysonet, and Towles are the only Major-League talent the Astros have that is anywhere close to "young." Hopefully they will all get more time at the plate and on the field, and we will begin to see where the Astros will be heading. Bourn and Pence are obviously the heart of that talent, while Towles hopefully can get better. We don't really have anything else in the farm system (except for Bogusevic) that is anywhere close to being ready.

3) Winning season.

On some level, we have to see Ed Wade's mission as a success. He was charged with making this shitty club compete. Well, the Astros competed and came pretty fucking close to a playoff berth. A winning season, if nothing else, will at least make Houston more attractive to free agents. Now let's see what Wade can do for reals.

4) LaTroy Hawkins.

I'm curious as to whether his 0.00 ERA (as a Good Guy) can hold until the end of the season. It would certainly be a turnaround from his first half with the Yankees.

Otherwise, there's really not much going for the Astros right now.

And if the Texans can't get anything started, it's going to be a long month while waiting for basketball season.

SPAZ!

Ahh, Hunter Pence... He hit two homers last night, both to deep center (no easy feat in Dolphin Stadium). He also hit one to the deep warning track, same location. The guy has some serious strength.

As I've said previously, I think he's getting better. He's making the adjustments needed to succeed in the major leagues. I think he's going to have a great season next year.

So it's not all bad, I guess. Maybe now that our pipe dream is over, we can start shutting down some of our starters (Oswalt, Berkman, Tejada, I guess Wolf) and play guys like Maysonet, Saccomanno, and Towles.

Maybe believing isn't all that it's cracked up to be...

Jesus Christ. What a horrible fucking game. If I never see Brandon Backe in an Astros uniform again, I'll be the happiest Astros fan this side of the Mississippi.

Let me make this clear to everyone: Backe sucks. That's just a simple fact we're all going to have to live with. We all wanted him to develop into the Astros' 5th starter: a guy with the stamina to eat innings and the ERA to justify that. We wanted him to just be average. That would have been fine.

Backe is now a 30 year old pitcher who wouldn't be a starter on any but the worst (Astros) rosters. Backe has come through for us a few times, mainly in the playoffs. But that's not a strong enough sample size to base a career off of.

And that's too bad. The guy is a local kid (isn't it kind of odd for me to be referring to a man 8 years my senior as a "kid?"). He has always showed a passion and vigor in the game (but what major leaguer doesn't? They wouldn't play the game if they didn't like it).

But his pitching stinks. And that's what we pay the guy to do - pitch.

Unfortunately, Backe isn't good enough to trade. He doesn't have the past numbers to get a compensatory pick in the draft. So the Astros just have to not re-sign him and just replace him with one of our other shitty starters.

You gotta believe

...or at least pretend to, folks.


We've been through MUCH lower lows than this as Houstonians and Astros fans. Just hold on, because the Mets and Brewers have completely collapsed. If we just win a tiny bit, we might make the big dance this year.

We'd probably still get swept out of the playoffs, but I figure the universe owes us.

Edit:

I'd also like to point out that Papa Grande's "Save" celebration looks a lot less cool when it's performed in the bottom of the 8th and the Astros are down by four. That wasn't really a celebration situation there, Jose.

Not a good weekend...

...for either my home town or my adopted city. First, Houston is hit with a true monster of a storm. Then, its baseball team puts up 18 innings of 1-hit ball. A good portion of its multi-million dollar football stadium's roof is torn asunder, meaning that the Texans will face an even more brutal schedule. Much of Houston is without power.

The Saints lost (don't really care, but Reggie Bush put up a 2.8 yds/carry game, which is always hi-fucking-larious). The Green Wave got its second "almost-but-not-quite" upset of the season.

The lone good point: Matt Forte put up 4.0 yds/carry with the Bears on Sunday. Awesome. One of my friends has him on his fantasy team, so good for him. As he pointed out, Forte has all the markers of a great running back. He's got great speed. He's physically powerful. He's got good vision and intelligence. And he can catch, to boot. The only reason he was a surprise in the 2nd round of the draft was because he came from Tulane and not LSU, USC, Texas, OSU etc.

On the bright side for me: we got almost 100 people to sign up for the debate society. If even a third of that shows up, we're doing good. It looks like we're going to have a great year.

I'd like to talk a little more about Coop.

As I posted over at the Crawfish Boxes, Coop has really improved over the last year. He's no longer doing the "small-ball" shit that was helping to lose games in April. He still doesn't just sit back and wait for our hitters to score, and I think he still orders stupid shit like the hit-and-run play WAY too often, but he's managed well.

More importantly, he's kept the bullpen in good shape. He's been handed a pretty good bullpen, and he usually distributes the work fairly evenly. He gets Wesley experience and puts the ball in the hands of Sampson, Hawkins or Brocail if we're in a jam. He keeps the pitchers well rested. That's great.

And he sticks up for his charges. He knows when the Astros are getting fucked. There's nothing wrong if a manager gets thrown out of the game, and he's willing to go to line for his guys (hell, he chewed out the commissioner!).

That's all you need from a manager. You don't need (or really want) guys like LaRussa or Torre. You just want a guy who can manage the bullpen, keep everyone in line, and who will argue the bad calls so his players don't have to.

I think I'm gonna puke

I'm watching MNF. Fuck the Cowboys. I think it's Tony Kornheiser (whom I normally like) talking right now

And he's talking (really he's just gobbling cock) about the Cowboys. It was so hyperbolic. "Jerry Jones is the architect of this. Everything they do is just bigger and better than anyone else. They just embrace the fame and fortune. That blue star is bigger than anything else in American sports."

I'm serious: I just puked in my mouth a little.

Christ I hate the Cowboys. I hate everything about them. I hate the way their fans act. I hate their front-running bullshit. I hate the whole city of Dallas. I hate that fucking star. I hate their idiotic "America's Team" crap.

It's fucking South Oklahoma, not Texas. North Texas is filled with a bunch of fucking hicks and bible pounders. We've got plenty of them here, too, but they're loveable.

And you can't get any good seafood there. And they put fritos in their chili (it's rice or nothing, motherfuckers).

And they're a bunch of fucking yuppies.

And they all vote Republican.

And they're less diverse than Houston.

And they don't have our universities or museums. We're smarter than they are.

FUCK DALLAS!

Ugh

Not pretty. Fuck.

So, I'll address some of the stupid bullshit (Mostly Cubs fan talking points) that has been said over the past 24 hours:

1) Drayton McLane delayed the games until the last minute. Astros fans have no one to blame but Drayton.

This has been said by both Astros and Cubs fans. This is total crap. I hate on Uncle Drayton as much as the next God-fearing Houstonian, but this isn't his fault. He did the right thing. He tried to keep the games in Houston. He tried to keep players and employees with their families and loved ones.

And he didn't do it for the cash. Milwaukee handed over all money from the games. I think he legitimately wanted to ensure that the games would be played in Houston, if possible. He probably argued for the games to be played in Arlington (and Round Rock, too), but the MLB would have none of it.

2) The lack of "home field" didn't matter.

This is partially correct. I doubt that having thousands of dumbass Cubs fans in the stands did anything.

But travel time was an issue. The Good Guys spent most of Sunday traveling, after having to evacuate Houston just hours prior. That's a bunch of bullshit.

3) If you live on the Gulf Coast, losing home field to a hurricane is a possibility. Deal with it.

You know, I never really expected to encounter this one. But I did. Twice.

The first was on Fark (home of bullshit and unfounded self-righteousness) from a Baltimore Ravens fan. He was all pissed off about the NFL moving the Ravens' (and Texans') bye week to now. He said it was "unfair," and that, instead, the Ravens and Texans should play the game in Baltimore.

I found his definition of "fair" interesting. Both teams losing a bye week sucks, but it is "fair" because both get fucked equally.

To him, however, the "fair" thing was to give the Ravens a free home game. (Yeah, I think he failed Ethics 101)

I also encountered this from Cubs fans trolling on the Crawfish Boxes (the comments have since been baleted, which is really too bad).

I mean, words can't describe how stupid this is. I can't imagine Cubs (or Ravens, Bears or Orioles) fans thinking that moving their home games would be "fair" if Baltimore or Chicago was hit by some disaster. Maybe that's because it's just such a horseshit idea. No fan is going to accept that, and rightfully so. It's just so stupid to expect teams to give up home games because of natural disasters.

4) Typical "Team of Destiny!" Crap

I'd like to remind Cubs fans that pride goeth before the fall. And it makes that fall much worse than it would have been. One would think 100 years of post season failure would teach Cubs fans that anything can happen in the post season, and that it's just not a good idea to start the gloating before the games even happen.

Remember the 1998 Astros? Well, the 1998 Cubs had a pretty fucking great year, too. But they were swept by Atlanta in the NLDS. They, too, failed to get past the first round that year, facing much less spectacular teams. That was the year of Kerry Wood's 20K game against the Astros. Look what it yielded.

Now, this will make any failure by the Cubs all the sweeter. Every person outside of Chicago will be cheering for the Phillies (provided they make it) in the NLDS. Everyone will be cheering for the Mets or Dodgers to beat them in the NLCS. Everyone will want the Angels/Red Sox/ White Sox (God I hope not)/ Rays (fuck yes) to kick their ass. And if it happens, Cubs fans will never hear the end of it. Every NL Central fan will let the Cubs have it in 2009.

This isn't to suggest that Cubs fans shouldn't be happy with their team's victories. Far from it. They just need to realize that gloating now is just a prescription for unending grief later. It's why Red Sox fans are so despised. It's why no one like Yankees fans.

Now, with that said, I'd like to say that I'd never practice what I just preached. If the Astros were one of the best teams in baseball, if the Rockets raked house every year, and if the Texans were a powerhouse in the NFL, I'd never let any opposing fan hear the end of it. Maybe that's because I've spent most of my life rooting for teams that have had no post season success. I only vaguely remember the 1995 Rockets (I was only 7 years old). I don't really give a shit about the Dynamo or any of that crap. Chicago fans really don't have that excuse, though. The Jordan-era Bulls were only a decade ago. It wasn't long ago that the Bears went to the Superbowl.

5) Zambrano's No Hitter is Exactly the Same as Every Other Ever

That one's really a response to some Astros fans' claims that this no-hitter just wasn't as much of an accomplishment. Which is true. And before Cubs fans get in a little tizzy over this, let's do a thought experiment.

Pretend that two games exist: Game A and Game B. Game A was Sunday night's game. Everything happened in Game A just as in reality.

Game B is exactly like Game A, but it was played with no hurricane. It was played in Houston in front of a divided, but still pro-Astro crowd. The Astros players never had to evacuate. They never had to travel cross-country and play on the same day. But the no-hitter still happened.

Is anyone really willing to say that Game B and Game A are equivalent? That, one every level, the two games were equally glorious? I don't think anyone would, and that's because such suggestion would be stupid. Circumstances matter in all of this.

To use an example from Cubs history, let's look at Kerry Wood's 1998 20 K performance. Why was that so spectacular? Because he threw a CG Shutout 1-hitter with 20 strikeouts against a lineup that included three of the greatest hitters in baseball (Bagwell, Biggio, Alou). (As an aside, I've always thought that game was kind of interesting from the Good Guys' perspective. I was, if I recall, in 3rd grade math class at the time, so I never saw it. But it's rather remarkable that the worst hitter on the team (Ricky Gutierrez) got the one hit. On the other hand, the only other Astro baserunner was Biggio, who (in typical Bidge fashion) didn't get the fuck out of the way of a pitch). Wood's game wouldn't have been such an accomplishment if it were thrown against, say, the current Pirates. It would still be an accomplishment, but less so.

A final example, this time from Astros history: the 6-Pitcher-no-hitter game against the Yankees. That wasn't as good of a performance as any other no-hitter. Part of the greatness of a no-hitter is the stamina and efficiency involved. Using 6 pitchers obviously nullifies that. No one would compare that no-hitter to one of Nolan Ryan's.

All of this shows that circumstances matter. And since the circumstances involved invariably hurt the Astros, they hurt the image of Zambrano's no-hitter. That's just a fact.

In other matters, I'd like to wish the Buffalo Bills the best of luck. Despite the ignorance of ESPN and the regular sports media, Buffalo is the best team in the AFC East. Not that those fucks would ever notice. Despite the Bills' destruction of the Oilers and subsequent loss to Dallas (fuck the Cowboys), good luck to them.

Edit: Forgot about #5; added it in.

Hey everybody

Nice to see ya'll. Have a look around. I need to try trolling for hits at Fark more often.

Eat shit Cubsfans

I rarely scream at televisions. Particularly when I'm in a dorm. Tonight was an exception.

So I'm majorly pissed. Bud Selig made the Astros play a thousand fucking miles away from home after their home city is fucked over by the forces of nature.

I want to make something very clear right now. Fuck whatever it is that's in charge of baseball luck. I don't care if it's fate, or karma, or God himself. This is horseshit. And I'm fucking tired of it.

The city of fucking "Baaaaaaaaaaaastaaaaaan" gets to fucking market it's "loveable loser" bullshit for fucking forever. Chicago does the same shit. What the fuck kind of sympathy does Houston get? Fucking nothing. We've had two fucking national championships since the AFL merged with the NFL. If we want to go through the list of bullshit luck, we can (and we will).

1) Phi Slamma Jamma
Greatest college team ever gets fucked over by fate. Fuck fate.

2) Moon-Era Oilers
Greatest Oilers ever get fucking unlucky in the playoffs. Fuck luck. And Buffalo. And Dallas. Also lead to Adams moving the fucking team. Fuck him.

3) 1998 Astros
Been through this. Fuck it.

4) 2004 Astros
4 guaranteed HOF players on the roster: Bags, Bidge, Rocket, Kent. Four awesome (possible HOF, provided everything goes right) other players: Beltran, Lidge, Berkman, Oswalt. All get screwed in the playoffs. Fuck Jim Edmonds.

5) 1986 Astros
Goddamnit.

6) Rockets, since 1995.
Don't get me fucking started.

7) Texans
David fucking Carr. The entire offensive line. Fuck this.

8) Bud Adams
If I ever see his Jabba-the-Hut ass on the street, I'll kick it.

arrrgh

Being a Houston fan is tough. We see Dallas fans and their stupid fucking Cowboys win all the fucking time. We see the Mavericks start to fucking make it, and all those assholes in Dallas start becoming basketball fans. If the Rangers start to be good, you can be sure that all those fuckers will suddenly be baseball fans, too. Bunch of fair-weather fucks.

I've got sympathy for precisely three cities in the US: New Orleans, Buffalo, and Cleveland. Fuck everyone else.

Houston rocks, and we deserve better fucking results. We get screwed over by luck all the goddamn time. It doesn't help when the people in charge join in on the fun.

First, Ike kicks the city of Houston in the nuts. Power is out. Galveston is torn to fucking shreds. I imagine a good portion of Galveston bay, Brazoria county, and anything along the Bayous and channel is fucked to hell.

Then, baseball does us no fucking favors.

Fuck it. The Astros will kick ass tomorrow. Then the Rockets are going to feed the rest of the country a big pile of dog shit.

Wishful thinking

Ugh. Paper due tomorrow (no biggy, just metaphysics) and my Russian professor is riding my ass. Really thinking about dropping that class. But I only need to finish it to complete my foreign language requirement. Why the fuck do we need 12 hours of a foreign language to graduate?

And I can't get hold of my mom. I called Saturday morning, and she was alright, but I've heard that the power in Montgomery county might be out for "weeks." If that's the case, she really needs to get out to Dallas to stay with my uncle. No reason a 60 year old woman needs to be staying in a house without power for weeks, even if the alternative is Dallas.

Nor will I be able to watch the Astros game (probably not, anyways, unless I can get that proxy server to work and trick MLB.tv into letting me see a blacked out game). I hate that the Astros have sold Sunday games to my20. Bunch of bullshit.

So days like this get me thinking. Joe Posnanski has an article about Jackal at his website, the typical fellating bullshit about how he could be the greatest player of all fucking time. I don't usually buy that "he could be the greatest if he just tried harder" crap. The man is 31. He is what he is, and he's a professional ballplayer. He tries hard every game.

Nevertheless, the New York media is going to ride his ass. He's like A-Rod; he's always going to be second-best to whomever the media loves at the moment (Reyes/Jeter), and will always be not quite good enough for their affections.

It's intriguing to me that writers don't think he "fits" New York. Maybe Beltran feels the same way. Maybe he thinks that New York isn't the place for him, that he'd be a better fit for Kansas City or Atlanta or Milwaukee or (dare I say it?) Houston.

People loved him when he was in Houston. He was a young superstar in a team that included plenty of other superstars. We loved his abilities. We loved his performance in the playoffs. He was immediately another Killer B. He could do no wrong.

Until he played the Astros for suckers. Then, he got booed at every Mets-Astros game.

And why did he leave? It's come out that the Astros offered him more money than the Mets gave him. The Yankees didn't want him (but he desperately wanted them). The Mets were his consolation prize.

So what happened? He had an off year in 2005, posting a .266/.330/.414 line for the season. OPS+ of 96. He was badmouthed in New York. And I'm sure he might have started questioning his decisions of December of 2004, as the Astros went to the World Series without him and the Mets played golf.

Had he stayed here, he would have been a star. Even if he had the same season in Houston, no Chronicle employee would eviscerate Beltran in the paper. He would never have been booed in Minute Maid. Just as the Hispanic community has fallen behind Carlos Lee, they would have embraced Beltran as representative and chosen son. Even if he had struck out every AB in the 2005 playoffs, the guy would have been loved.

You don't have to be great to be loved in Houston sports. We embraced Ensberg and Luke Scott . We didn't care about Everett's shitty batting line. You just have to show up every day and pretend you care. Granted, Astros fans' behavior towards Lidge in 2006 was despicable, but still.

So I think about the 2005 that might have been, had Beltran been re-signed and had Hunsicker stayed on.

Kent's option would still likely have been dropped, if only to have paid for Beltran's salary. This would place Biggio back at 2B, just as in the real 2005. If not, then the Astros would likely have kept Bidge in LF, at least until Bagwell went down. Maybe the Astros would have gone for the Reds' proposed trade of Adam Dunn. That would have been awesome. If Kent were still with the team, then he might have been moved to 1B, or possibly over to third. If not, the Berkman takes his rightful place at first.

Imagine that lineup! A Berkman-Beltran-Dunn-Ensberg lineup looks a lot better against the Chicago pitchers than the Berkman-Ensberg-Bagwell lineup of reality. Beltran would have possibly gotten that WS ring.

Ahh, to dream.

Fuck Carlos Beltran. Stupid fucking fuck.

Absolute horseshit

The Astros say that MMPUS is ready for games this weekend, but the commissioner has decided that two games will be played in Milwaukee. One game will be played on the 29th, if necessary.

So the Astros will play two "home" games at Wrigley Field North. Fucking great. Bud Selig can eat shit. If nothing else, play the two games at Ranger Field. That would at least be in Texas. Bullshit.

Whatever. Just kick some ass, Stros.

Something to drink to

While Ike prevents the Astros from continuing their run. (Good luck to everyone in Houston, too).

I just noticed this morning. Hunter Pence is now slightly above average (OPS+ 103). He's made the adjustments to the league's adjustments to him, I guess, and that's pretty encouraging. Especially since he was in OPS+ 80-90 range for much of the season.

Oh, and he hasn't committed any errors, either. Of course, errors are a stupid statistic, but that's good. Bill James had an article a couple of months ago where he wrote that Hunter's arm was one of the best in the league. And I'd agree. The guy has an ugly throw (and ugly swing, as we all know), but he has a pretty strong arm.

I think next year might be something of a "breakout" year for Hunter. It's tough to follow up on his excellent Rookie season, but he's showing a great deal of improvement at the plate. One more reason to have hope for the Astros' future.

Scouts tend to think that his swing is going to hurt him, preventing him from gaining true stardom in the majors. The odds are always against players attaining star numbers, anyways, but I think we've all seen guys with weird approaches make it big. I seem to recall some dude who played for the Astros a couple of years ago with a weird swing who a lot of scouts thought would never make it. What was his name again?

Oh yeah, he was never any good. Fuck him. Pence is going to suck forever and ever. 2007 was a fluke.

Further proof that those fucking Yankees up north don't know what the fuck they're doing

From Mister Mittens:

Despite Mittens recent stunningly superb performance in the preseason, it stood to reason that he was not in the immediate plans for anything that involved the Giants and playing time. Wrong, folks. Dead, dead wrong.

According to the Star-Ledger Giants blog, Woodson and backup Anthony Wright didn’t make the final cut, which means that … wait, what? David Carr is the only other quarterback on the roster after Eli Manning? Really? Wow, that’s a lot of faith in the Giants offensive line and Elisha’s ability to take a hit.

Now, I think David Carr might be a better QB than his time with the Texans might lead you to believe. But he's also much, much worse than his basic stats would tell you. I believe that calling him one of the worst QB's in the history of professional football would not be too far from the truth.

So why would the Giants decide that Carr would back up Manning? I was aware that Carr was going to be on the Giants' roster, but I thought only as the third option. But, checking the Giants depth chart now, Mittens is indeed right behind Manning. And they have no option after that.

And it's really not the Giants' offensive line that can do this. Really, it relies upon Buress' skills as a receiver. Just as Carr was always going to go to Johnson, he will now automatically go to Buress. And no offensive line can hold back a defense forever. Eventually, Carr will be pressured, and he will not be able to throw the ball off.

The bigger question, besides "What the hell are the Giants thinking?" is "Why does Carr have a job at all in the NFL?"

Things I Was Wrong About:

You don't have to go too far back for my posts relating to the Astros to be about how this season was going to suck. I've been proven wrong by fate, and I'd like to cop to it.

1) Reggie Abercrombie: okay, so he's only had a grand total of 49 PAs this year, but he's currently hitting .319/.340/.532. He's turned into, if nothing else, a decent 4th OF. Of course, the Astros have several of those, but that's okay. In the past, I've said he was downright awful. That's untrue. He's a below-average to average CF.

2) Randy Wolf: I thought this was just a terrible trade. I thought it was, at best, a $3 million draft pick. In truth, it's that and more. Randy has been a good pitcher while we've had him. He's helped take the Astros this far.

3) Latroy Hawkins: thought he was done. Figured that if the Yankees didn't want him, we probably shouldn't, either. Hawkins is no longer the pitcher he was, say, four years ago. His K/9 rate is down for his career (though it is up from last year). But he's kept the ball in the yard and posted 13 consecutive scoreless innings while a Good Guy. He has yet to give up a run as an Astro. That's pretty fuckin' great.

4) Ed Wade: I don't think he's a genius. But he's done well. He was given a mandate: compete now with what we've got. He was told to make an all-or-nothing run at the playoffs, and he gave it the best try he could. The result: the Astros are going to have at least a winning season, and have a long-distance chance of playing in October.

If you go through Wade's decisions, there are really six big ones: 1) the Tejada trade, 2) the Wolf trade, 3) the Hawkins trade, 4) signing Kazuo Matsui, 5) the Lidge trade, and finally 6) the Valverde trade. I think we can say that he got at least 3/5 right. Maybe 3/5.

Let's start with Wolf. Wolf has produced a good ERA and WHIP as an Astro. For $3 million, the Astros were able to jettison Runelvys Hernandez and get a 2nd or 3rd starter. It took the pressure off of Roy (who, at the time, wasn't doing so hot) and Moehler to perform. He was worth it, especially if he nets the Astros another draft pick. Of course, the Astros also gave up Chad Reineke, who will probably make the majors, but who definitely was no star.

Next is Hawkins. The best part of this is that Hawkins was, for all intents and purposes, free. We gave up the Astros' only Single A all-star, but it was really not a big loss. Unfortunately, Hawkins probably won't be a compensatory-pick-eligible FA after this season, but we might be able to sign him again for pretty cheap, if nothing else.

Kazuo. I think this was probably Wade's biggest mistake. Matsui's injury history was a known element, and paying $4 million for a 2B who has yet to play 120 games in the States was stupid. With that said, Kazuo is also one of the few dependable offensive weapons the Astros have. It's too bad he won't even play in 100 games this year, because we needed him. Signing him wasn't a bad idea, but doing so for so much cash certainly was.

Tejada always pisses me off. Not because he's older than he said he was or because he probably did steroids (everyone probably knew about the former, and I don't give a shit about the latter). It's because his drop off in production has been so sudden. Last year, he posted an OPS+ of 109. The year before, however, it was 126. Now it's 95.

And I think it's something he can easily fix. The guy was awesome at the beginning of the season. He was fantastic. But he quickly tired. He's no longer in his 20s. He no longer is getting help from drugs. He needs to recognize that he just can't be the Miggy Tejada that played in 1152 games straight. He's said that he won't play winter ball in the DR this year, so that will help. And Coop will probably be more willing to rest him next year. I hope his number will improve next year, and I think they probably will. He still won't be the old Tejada, but he'll be above average.

Now, Wade traded for him. He correctly recognized that, provided they could find a SS like Tejada, Adam Everett was replaceable. I don't know if Everett should have simply been let go, but it was, at the time, a smart move.

The Lidge trade is slightly more complex. On the one hand, the Astros gave up one of the greatest relievers in the game. On the other hand, 2006 was a rough year for Brad, and while 2007 was an improvement, one could have made an argument (albeit a stupid one) that he wasn't going to go back to being "Lights-Out" status.

More importantly, he was a high-value player in his contract year. And Lidge, thanks partly to his treatment at the hands of Astros fans in 2006 and partly to the high-demand for closers, was going to demand a great deal of cash for 2009. Trading him was a good idea.

But we got Villareal, Geary, and Bourn in return. Villareal washed out, Geary has been a decent reliever, and Bourn has been awful most of the year. Bourn's improving, but it's going to take a lot to make the trade worth it.

Valverde is an interesting case. I've said before that Qualls could have easily performed the same duties for considerably less, and I still believe that to be the case. But Valverde wasn't a bad acquisition. And if the Astros are able to get good value for him in either the draft or on the trading block, then he'll be worth it.

Lastly, there's the farm system. Take a look at BR's minor league reference pages on the Astros affiliates. We have four players in the system with OPS values above .900: Our friend Bogusevic (OF; 24 y/o; AA Corpus), Luis Alvarez (C/1B/3B; 18 y/o; Venezuela), Nathan Metroka (OF; 21 y/o; Rk. Greenville), and Drew Sutton (2B; 25 y/o; AA Corpus). Of those, three are the products of the Hunsicker/Purpura era. Only Metroka is new (though Alvarez has only spent two years in the Astros' system).

But Wade has said he's going to rebuild the system. And the draft reflects that. The Astros weren't the biggest spenders, but they drafted mostly college kids and spent wisely. BP thinks the Castro selection was stupid, but he didn't have some of the signability issues of Smoak, allowing the Astros to spend elsewhere. He's expanding the Dominican program, which is going to be critical. Especially since what little the MLB has gained in Venezuela is probably going to go to hell because of the political situation.

Anyways, those guys I pointed out are interesting. We have two (Sutton and Bogusevic) who will probably be called up soon. I can imagine both getting jobs in Spring Training or being called up during the season. The other two are either in Rookie ball or in a foreign league. They're both several years away, but it gives us some hope.

Maybe it's just the euphoria of seeing the Astros make this run, but I'm filled with a strange sense of encouragement. Oddly, I'm feeling this a lot about Houston sports recently. Yeah, the Texans got their asses kicked last week, but they'll probably be okay. The Rockets are going to be killer this season. And maybe the Astros are going to be alright next year. Yeah, they'll still be an aging team with major issues, but maybe the Wade plan can work. We'll have to see.

Morning Playoff Report

I think around the time when a team has a 1-in-6 shot at the playoffs, they're officially "back in it." Well, the Astros are almost at that point.

Again, going by ELO Playoff Odds:

Wild Card:

Milwaukee: 57.6%
Houston: 15.2%
Philly: 14.5%
St. Louis: 3.4%

The Astros' dumbass train keeps rolling along. We'll see what's going to happen in the next few days. We'll be in an interesting position, come Monday.

In all this talk about the Wild Card, I hardly noticed something about last night: the Astros have now won 80 games. They've all but clinched a winning season. That's pretty cool.

The writers at Baseball Prospectus will continue to point out that the Astros have gotten insanely hot and lucky in the past two months, but I'm inclined to start changing my opinion of the Good Guys. Yeah, this current stretch is certainly the result of that combination, but it's possible that the Astros really are much better than we thought.

The first consideration is the problems the Brewers have been facing: they have an awful bullpen. The Astros have an awesome one. In the long run, the bullpen's performance can make up for a lot of poor starting pitching. Our bench is similarly great.

That combination has allowed the Astros to survive injuries to starting players, the early crapout of Roy, and the lack of depth in the rotation. Ed Wade is no genius, but he did put together a team that could compete in a tough division. In most other sports, that gets you a playoff spot. In baseball, it makes you an also-ran.

The Astros have cut the RS-RA differential to -7. Their still a projected sub-.500 team, but that's going to change soon. As I've said before, Coop has allowed plenty of blowouts to take place. He's left Backe and Wandy and even Roy in games to get knocked around. Maybe that's fucked with the projections.

Speaking of Roy, he's awesome. He broke JR Richard's record for consecutive scoreless innings last night, and he's transformed himself into the Wizard once more. That's why we're paying him $15 million to play a children's game. Oh, and he faced only 27 hitters last night. All 3 runners were retired in double plays. Good job, Roy.

3

Cable was out in the dorms (thanks, Ike!), so I didn't get to see Roy pitch. Had to settle for friends. Fuck that.

Cubs won against St. Louis; Phillies won against Milwaukee; Good Guys swept the Pirates. Milwaukee has now cut its lead down to three games. Philly and Houston are still tied.

Good News: Only 3 games back, the Astros are still in good shape. Completing a sweep against any club is an achievement, even against one as bad as the Pirates. Hopefully, the Astros can do it again in a week.

Bad News: Still tied with the Phillies. That's problematic because 1) They have a similarly weak schedule as us, and 2) We don't face them. It comes down to teams like the Braves getting the job down against them and failing against us.

More Bad News: The Astros might have to play the series against the Cubs elsewhere. Maybe St. Louis or Kansas City. Cubs fans are like flies, mosquitoes, or tribbles - they're fucking everywhere. A "home" game anywhere but South Texas is really an away game for the Stros.

More Good News: The games will probably be delayed. This will allow the Astros to rest Roy and Wolf an extra few days. It might hurt the hitting, but pitching has been getting it done for the Astros recently. It gives the bullpen a needed rest.

Plus, it might give Kazuo or Wiggy a chance to get the fuck going. If either of those two can come back, the Astros are much better, offensively. If both come back some time in the next week, we're fucking golden.

The best case for the Astros would be if the games are postponed until the end of the season. If the Astros are leading the WC then and the Cubs have clinched it, then the games won't be played. If the Stros are tied or only one or two back, the Cubs will still not place guys like Dempster and Zambrano on the mound, more likely starting a couple call-ups, instead. Plus, Carlos might be back by then, God willing.

A few comments on the game: I didn't see it, so I can't say anything really particular. However, Coop let Roy go the distance on this one, and I think I agree with that decision.

At this point in the season, games come down to "intangibles" like luck and momentum. Luck is the bigger factor, but letting the guy who's on fire pitch isn't so bad. Maybe letting Roy get the CG shows him that Coop has confidence in him, and sends a message to the whole team: we're all in at this point.

I think Coop has really matured as a manager over the season. You'll notice that he doesn't have Wigginton steal bases anymore, and he has cut down on the running game overall. He still uses it with Bourn and Reggie (and, unfortunately, with Erstad and Pence), but he's really only stealing with the right guys now. Good.

And he's loading the front end of the lineup with guys who can work pitchers. Yeah, I think he should probably switch Hunter and Miggy in the lineup, but he puts the right platoons on the field and uses what he's got. And that's what matters.

3 games back, and we've still got a shot at this. Go Stros.

Heard about Houston?

Heard about Detroit? Heard about Pittsburgh, PA?

Irrelevant to the forthcoming post, but I like the song.

Anywhoo, this morning's ELO odds are out. Look something like this for the wild card:

Brewers: 61.64%
Phillies: 10.61%
Astros: 10.36%
Cardinals: 5.08%

As Lance has said, "It would still take a small miracle, but it would take a smaller one today than it would have a month ago."

Edit: Oh, and good luck to everyone in Houston. Heard something about an 8' storm surge for Galveston and the Channel. It's gonna be serious, folks.

Tied for 2nd!

With the Phillies' loss to Florida, the Brewers' unfortunate win over the Reds, and the Cubs' close one against the Shitbirds, the Astros are now tied with Philly for 2nd. Unfortunately, both clubs still sit 4 games back of Milwaukee.

The Good News: the Astros have cut their RS-RA differential significantly. It's still negative, but I think that maybe the club should be given a mulligan on the early season. They're overperforming significantly, but maybe not as significantly as the basic numbers might suggest.

The Bad News: We're up against the Cubs on Friday. We swept them at Wrigley last time, but it's going to be tough. Really tough. They're the best team in baseball, but they're slumpin' hard.

Kaz, Wiggy, and El Burro are still out. Carlos is hanging around the dugout during games, and I don't know how well he is. It might be that maybe (just maybe) he'll be back later on. It would be great to have him back for the last week or so, if nothing else. They've done well without him, but the Good Guys need the big man. Wigginton is desperately needed, too.

I've doubted this team all season. I still don't think it's a great team. It's probably barely a .500 club. But sometimes it's better to be lucky than anything near good, and the Astros are showing that off.

However, it's not been all luck. Hunter has improved significantly in the last few weeks. Maybe that's just him getting hot and nothing else, but it might be the Spaz we knew and loved last season shining through. The bench has delivered like no other. The bullpen is fucking solid.

Anyways, this next series will be key. If the Astros can walk away without losing ground in the race, they will be doing great. Even if they only lose a game, I'll count it as a win. But a sweep would pretty much end the Astros' chances at this point.

Of course, I've said that before. I said that in June, after they just looked awful. I said that after they got swept by the Pirates. But each time they seem to be out of it, the Astros have sat on that tantalizing edge of postseason possibilities.

Back in June, some writer said that this year's Cardinals are like the old-time "Gashouse Gang" of wheneverthefuck. At this point, I think the Astros are a more apt comparison. If the Astros pull this off, then they will have had the most epic comeback since the '69 Mets. Here's hoping against all reason for it to happen.

Holy shit holy shit holy shit

First, I'm glad Ike will miss us and go towards South Texas. Corpus Christi's a beautiful town (and it gave us Whataburger!), but it can take a hit from a hurricane better than New Orleans. Godspeed, little buddies.

Second, holy shit the Astros are only 4 games back of Milwaukee. So, in the grand scheme of things, we "only" need to win 5 games more than the Brewers over the next 16. It's possible. After last night, BP posted new ELO odds on the NL Wild Card. ELO gives weight to recent performance, so teams on a hot streak have better odds than those on a losing streak. Our Wild Card odds are at 8.9%. That's still really low, but it's manageable. Milwaukee is down to 51%. It's entirely possible that Milwaukee will blow this thing. St. Louis has won its last 3 games, but its WC odds are slightly worse than ours.

Philly is the problem in all of this. With a 15% chance of grabbing the WC right now, they have the best chance of the non-Brewer teams. But they're scuffling hard right now.

I've said it elsewhere, and I'll say it here. This is luck. This is a hot streak coming right at the end and there not being time for the universe to even out. In 2004 and 2005, the Astros made fantastic runs because their luck finally evened out - their teams finally performed as they should have.

2004 wasn't "magical." Think about who was on that team: Clemens, Bagwell, Biggio, Oswalt, Beltran, Berkman, and Kent. That's four certain hall-of-famers right there (well, maybe not Clemens, but he should be) and three awesome players of our era (Puma, Wizard, and Jackal).

2005 was more "magical." Offense sucked that year, but Pettitte got healthy and delivered for the team. Pitching got us where it did.

But now, the team is made up of a few stars (Berkman, Oswalt, Lee), one washed-up has-been (Tejada), and the cobbled-together cast-offs from other, better teams. That's pretty cool.

I'll say this: Randy Wolf has panned out much better than I thought. Ed Wade was right about the guy. He's not as good as he once was, but he's still a fine pitcher. He did well last night, even when he had some control issues in the first inning and the ump squeezed him the whole game.

And Wade's tinkering with the bullpen has paid off, too. Valverde is awesome. Geary, Wesley, and Sampson are awesome. Byrdak is serviceable, as is Brokail. Nieve and (surprisingly) Arias look good. Most surprising, however, is LaTroy Hawkins.

Hawkins' best days are behind him. Hell, they were behind him pretty quickly into his career. But he's always been a solid reliever (just don't let him close). Honestly, his sudden ejection from New York was pretty weird. The Yankees need pitching more than anyone in the AL East (except the O's, but they don't count cuz they suck). Why jettison a guy who has done well? He's not the guy he was in 2002, but he can still keep the ball in the yard. And that's what's really important, particularly in late-inning situations.

So, Ed Wade has done well with the pitching staff. The Villareal and Chacon debacles aside, the pitching staff is better today than it was last year. And it's pitching that has gotten the Astros to this point. Maybe they'll be able to close out the season with some self-respect, but they might just be able to end the season in October.