...or at least pretend to, folks.
We've been through MUCH lower lows than this as Houstonians and Astros fans. Just hold on, because the Mets and Brewers have completely collapsed. If we just win a tiny bit, we might make the big dance this year.
We'd probably still get swept out of the playoffs, but I figure the universe owes us.
Edit:
I'd also like to point out that Papa Grande's "Save" celebration looks a lot less cool when it's performed in the bottom of the 8th and the Astros are down by four. That wasn't really a celebration situation there, Jose.
Showing posts with label playoffs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label playoffs. Show all posts
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Friday, September 12, 2008
Morning Playoff Report
I think around the time when a team has a 1-in-6 shot at the playoffs, they're officially "back in it." Well, the Astros are almost at that point.
Again, going by ELO Playoff Odds:
Wild Card:
Milwaukee: 57.6%
Houston: 15.2%
Philly: 14.5%
St. Louis: 3.4%
The Astros' dumbass train keeps rolling along. We'll see what's going to happen in the next few days. We'll be in an interesting position, come Monday.
In all this talk about the Wild Card, I hardly noticed something about last night: the Astros have now won 80 games. They've all but clinched a winning season. That's pretty cool.
The writers at Baseball Prospectus will continue to point out that the Astros have gotten insanely hot and lucky in the past two months, but I'm inclined to start changing my opinion of the Good Guys. Yeah, this current stretch is certainly the result of that combination, but it's possible that the Astros really are much better than we thought.
The first consideration is the problems the Brewers have been facing: they have an awful bullpen. The Astros have an awesome one. In the long run, the bullpen's performance can make up for a lot of poor starting pitching. Our bench is similarly great.
That combination has allowed the Astros to survive injuries to starting players, the early crapout of Roy, and the lack of depth in the rotation. Ed Wade is no genius, but he did put together a team that could compete in a tough division. In most other sports, that gets you a playoff spot. In baseball, it makes you an also-ran.
The Astros have cut the RS-RA differential to -7. Their still a projected sub-.500 team, but that's going to change soon. As I've said before, Coop has allowed plenty of blowouts to take place. He's left Backe and Wandy and even Roy in games to get knocked around. Maybe that's fucked with the projections.
Speaking of Roy, he's awesome. He broke JR Richard's record for consecutive scoreless innings last night, and he's transformed himself into the Wizard once more. That's why we're paying him $15 million to play a children's game. Oh, and he faced only 27 hitters last night. All 3 runners were retired in double plays. Good job, Roy.
Again, going by ELO Playoff Odds:
Wild Card:
Milwaukee: 57.6%
Houston: 15.2%
Philly: 14.5%
St. Louis: 3.4%
The Astros' dumbass train keeps rolling along. We'll see what's going to happen in the next few days. We'll be in an interesting position, come Monday.
In all this talk about the Wild Card, I hardly noticed something about last night: the Astros have now won 80 games. They've all but clinched a winning season. That's pretty cool.
The writers at Baseball Prospectus will continue to point out that the Astros have gotten insanely hot and lucky in the past two months, but I'm inclined to start changing my opinion of the Good Guys. Yeah, this current stretch is certainly the result of that combination, but it's possible that the Astros really are much better than we thought.
The first consideration is the problems the Brewers have been facing: they have an awful bullpen. The Astros have an awesome one. In the long run, the bullpen's performance can make up for a lot of poor starting pitching. Our bench is similarly great.
That combination has allowed the Astros to survive injuries to starting players, the early crapout of Roy, and the lack of depth in the rotation. Ed Wade is no genius, but he did put together a team that could compete in a tough division. In most other sports, that gets you a playoff spot. In baseball, it makes you an also-ran.
The Astros have cut the RS-RA differential to -7. Their still a projected sub-.500 team, but that's going to change soon. As I've said before, Coop has allowed plenty of blowouts to take place. He's left Backe and Wandy and even Roy in games to get knocked around. Maybe that's fucked with the projections.
Speaking of Roy, he's awesome. He broke JR Richard's record for consecutive scoreless innings last night, and he's transformed himself into the Wizard once more. That's why we're paying him $15 million to play a children's game. Oh, and he faced only 27 hitters last night. All 3 runners were retired in double plays. Good job, Roy.
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Tied for 2nd!
With the Phillies' loss to Florida, the Brewers' unfortunate win over the Reds, and the Cubs' close one against the Shitbirds, the Astros are now tied with Philly for 2nd. Unfortunately, both clubs still sit 4 games back of Milwaukee.
The Good News: the Astros have cut their RS-RA differential significantly. It's still negative, but I think that maybe the club should be given a mulligan on the early season. They're overperforming significantly, but maybe not as significantly as the basic numbers might suggest.
The Bad News: We're up against the Cubs on Friday. We swept them at Wrigley last time, but it's going to be tough. Really tough. They're the best team in baseball, but they're slumpin' hard.
Kaz, Wiggy, and El Burro are still out. Carlos is hanging around the dugout during games, and I don't know how well he is. It might be that maybe (just maybe) he'll be back later on. It would be great to have him back for the last week or so, if nothing else. They've done well without him, but the Good Guys need the big man. Wigginton is desperately needed, too.
I've doubted this team all season. I still don't think it's a great team. It's probably barely a .500 club. But sometimes it's better to be lucky than anything near good, and the Astros are showing that off.
However, it's not been all luck. Hunter has improved significantly in the last few weeks. Maybe that's just him getting hot and nothing else, but it might be the Spaz we knew and loved last season shining through. The bench has delivered like no other. The bullpen is fucking solid.
Anyways, this next series will be key. If the Astros can walk away without losing ground in the race, they will be doing great. Even if they only lose a game, I'll count it as a win. But a sweep would pretty much end the Astros' chances at this point.
Of course, I've said that before. I said that in June, after they just looked awful. I said that after they got swept by the Pirates. But each time they seem to be out of it, the Astros have sat on that tantalizing edge of postseason possibilities.
Back in June, some writer said that this year's Cardinals are like the old-time "Gashouse Gang" of wheneverthefuck. At this point, I think the Astros are a more apt comparison. If the Astros pull this off, then they will have had the most epic comeback since the '69 Mets. Here's hoping against all reason for it to happen.
The Good News: the Astros have cut their RS-RA differential significantly. It's still negative, but I think that maybe the club should be given a mulligan on the early season. They're overperforming significantly, but maybe not as significantly as the basic numbers might suggest.
The Bad News: We're up against the Cubs on Friday. We swept them at Wrigley last time, but it's going to be tough. Really tough. They're the best team in baseball, but they're slumpin' hard.
Kaz, Wiggy, and El Burro are still out. Carlos is hanging around the dugout during games, and I don't know how well he is. It might be that maybe (just maybe) he'll be back later on. It would be great to have him back for the last week or so, if nothing else. They've done well without him, but the Good Guys need the big man. Wigginton is desperately needed, too.
I've doubted this team all season. I still don't think it's a great team. It's probably barely a .500 club. But sometimes it's better to be lucky than anything near good, and the Astros are showing that off.
However, it's not been all luck. Hunter has improved significantly in the last few weeks. Maybe that's just him getting hot and nothing else, but it might be the Spaz we knew and loved last season shining through. The bench has delivered like no other. The bullpen is fucking solid.
Anyways, this next series will be key. If the Astros can walk away without losing ground in the race, they will be doing great. Even if they only lose a game, I'll count it as a win. But a sweep would pretty much end the Astros' chances at this point.
Of course, I've said that before. I said that in June, after they just looked awful. I said that after they got swept by the Pirates. But each time they seem to be out of it, the Astros have sat on that tantalizing edge of postseason possibilities.
Back in June, some writer said that this year's Cardinals are like the old-time "Gashouse Gang" of wheneverthefuck. At this point, I think the Astros are a more apt comparison. If the Astros pull this off, then they will have had the most epic comeback since the '69 Mets. Here's hoping against all reason for it to happen.
Holy shit holy shit holy shit
First, I'm glad Ike will miss us and go towards South Texas. Corpus Christi's a beautiful town (and it gave us Whataburger!), but it can take a hit from a hurricane better than New Orleans. Godspeed, little buddies.
Second, holy shit the Astros are only 4 games back of Milwaukee. So, in the grand scheme of things, we "only" need to win 5 games more than the Brewers over the next 16. It's possible. After last night, BP posted new ELO odds on the NL Wild Card. ELO gives weight to recent performance, so teams on a hot streak have better odds than those on a losing streak. Our Wild Card odds are at 8.9%. That's still really low, but it's manageable. Milwaukee is down to 51%. It's entirely possible that Milwaukee will blow this thing. St. Louis has won its last 3 games, but its WC odds are slightly worse than ours.
Philly is the problem in all of this. With a 15% chance of grabbing the WC right now, they have the best chance of the non-Brewer teams. But they're scuffling hard right now.
I've said it elsewhere, and I'll say it here. This is luck. This is a hot streak coming right at the end and there not being time for the universe to even out. In 2004 and 2005, the Astros made fantastic runs because their luck finally evened out - their teams finally performed as they should have.
2004 wasn't "magical." Think about who was on that team: Clemens, Bagwell, Biggio, Oswalt, Beltran, Berkman, and Kent. That's four certain hall-of-famers right there (well, maybe not Clemens, but he should be) and three awesome players of our era (Puma, Wizard, and Jackal).
2005 was more "magical." Offense sucked that year, but Pettitte got healthy and delivered for the team. Pitching got us where it did.
But now, the team is made up of a few stars (Berkman, Oswalt, Lee), one washed-up has-been (Tejada), and the cobbled-together cast-offs from other, better teams. That's pretty cool.
I'll say this: Randy Wolf has panned out much better than I thought. Ed Wade was right about the guy. He's not as good as he once was, but he's still a fine pitcher. He did well last night, even when he had some control issues in the first inning and the ump squeezed him the whole game.
And Wade's tinkering with the bullpen has paid off, too. Valverde is awesome. Geary, Wesley, and Sampson are awesome. Byrdak is serviceable, as is Brokail. Nieve and (surprisingly) Arias look good. Most surprising, however, is LaTroy Hawkins.
Hawkins' best days are behind him. Hell, they were behind him pretty quickly into his career. But he's always been a solid reliever (just don't let him close). Honestly, his sudden ejection from New York was pretty weird. The Yankees need pitching more than anyone in the AL East (except the O's, but they don't count cuz they suck). Why jettison a guy who has done well? He's not the guy he was in 2002, but he can still keep the ball in the yard. And that's what's really important, particularly in late-inning situations.
So, Ed Wade has done well with the pitching staff. The Villareal and Chacon debacles aside, the pitching staff is better today than it was last year. And it's pitching that has gotten the Astros to this point. Maybe they'll be able to close out the season with some self-respect, but they might just be able to end the season in October.
Second, holy shit the Astros are only 4 games back of Milwaukee. So, in the grand scheme of things, we "only" need to win 5 games more than the Brewers over the next 16. It's possible. After last night, BP posted new ELO odds on the NL Wild Card. ELO gives weight to recent performance, so teams on a hot streak have better odds than those on a losing streak. Our Wild Card odds are at 8.9%. That's still really low, but it's manageable. Milwaukee is down to 51%. It's entirely possible that Milwaukee will blow this thing. St. Louis has won its last 3 games, but its WC odds are slightly worse than ours.
Philly is the problem in all of this. With a 15% chance of grabbing the WC right now, they have the best chance of the non-Brewer teams. But they're scuffling hard right now.
I've said it elsewhere, and I'll say it here. This is luck. This is a hot streak coming right at the end and there not being time for the universe to even out. In 2004 and 2005, the Astros made fantastic runs because their luck finally evened out - their teams finally performed as they should have.
2004 wasn't "magical." Think about who was on that team: Clemens, Bagwell, Biggio, Oswalt, Beltran, Berkman, and Kent. That's four certain hall-of-famers right there (well, maybe not Clemens, but he should be) and three awesome players of our era (Puma, Wizard, and Jackal).
2005 was more "magical." Offense sucked that year, but Pettitte got healthy and delivered for the team. Pitching got us where it did.
But now, the team is made up of a few stars (Berkman, Oswalt, Lee), one washed-up has-been (Tejada), and the cobbled-together cast-offs from other, better teams. That's pretty cool.
I'll say this: Randy Wolf has panned out much better than I thought. Ed Wade was right about the guy. He's not as good as he once was, but he's still a fine pitcher. He did well last night, even when he had some control issues in the first inning and the ump squeezed him the whole game.
And Wade's tinkering with the bullpen has paid off, too. Valverde is awesome. Geary, Wesley, and Sampson are awesome. Byrdak is serviceable, as is Brokail. Nieve and (surprisingly) Arias look good. Most surprising, however, is LaTroy Hawkins.
Hawkins' best days are behind him. Hell, they were behind him pretty quickly into his career. But he's always been a solid reliever (just don't let him close). Honestly, his sudden ejection from New York was pretty weird. The Yankees need pitching more than anyone in the AL East (except the O's, but they don't count cuz they suck). Why jettison a guy who has done well? He's not the guy he was in 2002, but he can still keep the ball in the yard. And that's what's really important, particularly in late-inning situations.
So, Ed Wade has done well with the pitching staff. The Villareal and Chacon debacles aside, the pitching staff is better today than it was last year. And it's pitching that has gotten the Astros to this point. Maybe they'll be able to close out the season with some self-respect, but they might just be able to end the season in October.
Monday, September 8, 2008
Finally Back in NOLA
Got back yesterday. And now there's another fucking Hurricane gunning for the city. Shit.
On the bright side, the Astros continue to nullify any chance that they'll tank the season and show Ed Wade and Uncle Drayton that they need a lot more work to be a contender.
Tonight, Mark Saccomanno was called up for his debut. He's 28 (!), and, as I've said previously, it's kind of surprising they never called him up before. Anyways, he homered off of his first pitch. Pretty cool. Alberto Arias made his first start ever, and went 5 innings with 6 K's. Awesome.
So the Good Guys are 10 games over .500. Vastly overperforming all expectations (and run differential), so they'll probably come down pretty soon.
But it's entirely possible that the Astros could make it happen. All it takes is for three teams to collapse in the next two weeks. Not likely, but you can hope for it.
On the bright side, the Astros continue to nullify any chance that they'll tank the season and show Ed Wade and Uncle Drayton that they need a lot more work to be a contender.
Tonight, Mark Saccomanno was called up for his debut. He's 28 (!), and, as I've said previously, it's kind of surprising they never called him up before. Anyways, he homered off of his first pitch. Pretty cool. Alberto Arias made his first start ever, and went 5 innings with 6 K's. Awesome.
So the Good Guys are 10 games over .500. Vastly overperforming all expectations (and run differential), so they'll probably come down pretty soon.
But it's entirely possible that the Astros could make it happen. All it takes is for three teams to collapse in the next two weeks. Not likely, but you can hope for it.
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
On Luck and the '98 Astros
In Moneyball, Billy Beane says to Michael Lewis something to the effect that he has no control over the playoffs. And he's right - the playoffs are so short, and the amount of luck involved in baseball so large, that even the 1998 Devil Rays could beat the 1998 Yankees in a five game series. It's not a very fun notion - we want to think that the team that reaches the World Series is the best of the best, but sometimes (cough2006Cardinalscough) even pretty poor teams make it. And they win the championship, too.
In the wake of Biggio's jersey retirement, and the resulting shitfest that was the "discussion" of his hall-of-fameness, I began to notice a running trend: people were counting Biggio's lack of a WS ring against him. So I'd like to write about the time the Astros really got fucked over by fate - the 1998 NLDS.
The 1998 season produced the 1998 Yankees - the "best Yankees evar" to paraphrase that dumbass Giuliani. Most people probably remember 1998 for the race between McGwire and Sosa. The 1998 season also produced three 100 win teams - the Yankees, the Braves, and the Astros. By that time, of course, the Yankees and Braves were perennial visitors to the playoffs. The Astros had, since 1994, established themselves as the powerhouse of the NL Central, along with St. Louis. 1997 was the Astros' first playoff visit since the epic 1986 season, but had resulted in a sweep in the NLDS, courtesy of the Braves.
The next season, the Astros had one of the most powerful lineups they ever fielded. At first and second were, of course, Bagwell and Biggio. Bagwell was having something of an off year, "only" posting an OPS+ of 158. Biggio was having a great one, posting an OPS+ of 139. Moises Alou would display his pure hitting prowress: OPS+ of 157. Bill Spiers was even league-average that year. Ausmus had his third best season: OPS+ of 91. Guys like Richard Hidalgo rounded out the bench and lineup. I'd say it was the best lineup of hitters the Astros would field until 2004.
Oddly enough, for a team that many associate with outstanding pitching talent, the late 90s Astros had little of it. But we did have solid starters. Jose Lima had the worst ERA of the starters at 5.28 - he would be a year away from "Lima Time." Mike Hampton and Shane Reynolds would have ERAs of 3.36 and 3.51, respectively - slightly under the league average. Sean Bergman posted one of 3.72; again, slightly better than league average. The Astros had one shitty pitcher and three semi-good ones.
Until Johnson was traded to the Astros. Johnson was in his contract year with the Mariners, and had apparently been in something of a malaise for most of the season. But the Astros dealt John Halama (a player to be named later, he was the Astros' other shitty fifth starter in 1998), Carlos Guillen (still in the MLB with the Tigers), and Freddy Garcia (just came out of rehab and signed a deal with the Tigers). This was back when the Astros could afford to do this sort of thing with the farm system - Draft and Follow had proven to be something that the Astros were awesome at, and all of Venezuela was essentially the Astros' territory. We could afford to lose a Major League pitcher and two top prospects for a guy who we knew would only be in Houston for a few months.
So Johnson came to Houston and promptly posted a 1.28 ERA in his 11 starts. Had he done this in Seattle for anything close to the whole season, he probably would have won his second Cy Young that year. In any case, he still came in 7th in NL Cy Young voting that year. Oh yeah, and we had some dude named Wagner as our closer. So with four average starters, one awesome starter, and one of the best bullpen aces of all time, the Astros would roll towards the playoffs with Bagwell, Biggio, and Johnson leading the way.
The NLDS pitted the Cubs (who won the wild card) against the Atlanta Braves and the Padres against the Astros. In stark contrast to what will happen this year, with three good teams making the playoffs and one bad team showing up from the NL West, the 1998 season saw remarkable parity amongst the divisons. San Diego had won 98 games, Atlanta 105, and Houston 102. Chicago, San Francisco, and New York were locked in a three-way fight for the wild card. The Giants and Cubs would play each other in a tiebreaker to determine the wild card.
A lot of people picked the 98 Astros as the NL Pennant favorite. And they were probably right. What nobody accounted for was the sudden failure of the Astros hitters.
The simple fact was that Bagwell, Biggio, Alou and the rest were atrocious in the postseason that year. It shouldn't have been even close. Other than our friend Caminiti (who had finally gotten the drugs and drinking under control and was displaying his hitting talent at full force), Tony Gwynn, and Greg Vaughn (who was having an absolutely ridiculous year, hitting 50 homers and OPS+ at 150. The guy never had anything even CLOSE to that before or after), the Padres didn't have the hitting skills of the Astros. And they certainly didn't have the raw slugging ability.
Pitching was similar, as well. The Padres had two starters with better-than-average ERAs: Ace Kevin Brown and less-than-ace Andy Ashby. They featured one of the premier closers of his time and all-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman. But again, they didn't have the talent that Houston had. Johnson was better than Brown. Hampton was better than Ashby. Wagner was better than Hoffman. Bagwell was better than Caminiti, Alou was better than Vaughn, and Biggio was better than Gwynn.
But the Astros would be defeated 3-1 in the series. What the fuck happened?
Luck happened. Brown was hot, as was Johnson. But the Padres' hitters were hot, too, while the Astros' hitters simply weren't. A lot of people like to believe that it was the Astros' lack of left-handed hitting. I don't think that's the case. Left-hand right-hand crap only matters in extreme cases.
Well, maybe it was just the pitching. Maybe Bagwell and Biggio just got blown away by Brown.
But the problem with that is our data for their career stats against Brown. Bagwell had an .870 OPS against Brown, lifetime. He could handle Brown in other circumstances (interestingly, to me anyways, is that Bagwell's #1 Pitcher Faced was Maddux. And he posted pretty good numbers against Maddux, too. Bags didn't have a problem with good pitchers).
Biggio has a less pretty career line against Brown: .188/.308/.313. But that's pretty typical for Bidge. As Bill James and others have noted, Biggio had a very extreme good pitcher/bad pitcher split. He could still hit a good pitcher (again, Mad Dog was his #1 pitcher faced. Career .723 OPS. He was plunked twice), but not like how he could hit a bad one. I don't really feel like looking up the career lines of Alou or Bell against Brown right now, but I'm sure they're fairly similar.
It was just luck of the draw. From 1997 on, the Astros faced spectacular pitchers in the postseason. They faced the ridiculously good Braves' pitching corps year after year - the one including future Hall of Famers Maddux, Smoltz, and Glavine. They just didn't have the success they found in the regular season. Balls didn't fall in the right spots, pitches once called strikes were now called balls, their bats were just off by a few sixteenths of an inch. They just got unlucky.
That still leaves the "choking" explanation. I've always loved Choke City as a nickname for Houston (it's why I named the blog that, along with the Chacon-Wade incident). Houston has a fine history of choking - the 1993 Oilers come to mind, as do the 1986 Rockets, the Rockets from 2003 on, and plenty of other cases.
But people don't become big league ballplayers if they can't handle pressure. Bagwell was dealing with pitches whizzing past his head at 90+ MPH almost every day for six months. He could handle pressure. The only explanation that makes any sense is luck. And that shouldn't be held against the Stros or any other franchise.
We can wonder about "what if." What if the Astros had swept the Fightin' Fathers? We would have met up with the Atlanta Braves once again. That would have been truly epic, as always. I think that would have cemented the Astros-Braves rivalry then and there. Had the Stros won the NLCS, they would have faced the Yankees. And I think the Astros would have faced much better chances against the '98 Yankees than the '98 Padres did. We might have seen the Astros' first World Series victory in 1998, "only" 36 years after enfranchisement. It would have been a thing to behold.
As it is, we had to wait for our first postseason victory against the Braves until 2004. And I think everyone would agree that the 2005 encounter between the two teams, with Roger Clemens emerging from the bullpen as the Astros' last chance to put the game away as the greatest postseason game ever played - even greater than the 1986 NLCS Game 6.
But luck played a major factor in everything. The postseason is not a good way to determine the best team, but it is a dramatic one. And that's alright. We don't watch baseball as a lesson on probability (well, I do), we watch it for the story and drama and battle.
But the Astros still got fucked.
In the wake of Biggio's jersey retirement, and the resulting shitfest that was the "discussion" of his hall-of-fameness, I began to notice a running trend: people were counting Biggio's lack of a WS ring against him. So I'd like to write about the time the Astros really got fucked over by fate - the 1998 NLDS.
The 1998 season produced the 1998 Yankees - the "best Yankees evar" to paraphrase that dumbass Giuliani. Most people probably remember 1998 for the race between McGwire and Sosa. The 1998 season also produced three 100 win teams - the Yankees, the Braves, and the Astros. By that time, of course, the Yankees and Braves were perennial visitors to the playoffs. The Astros had, since 1994, established themselves as the powerhouse of the NL Central, along with St. Louis. 1997 was the Astros' first playoff visit since the epic 1986 season, but had resulted in a sweep in the NLDS, courtesy of the Braves.
The next season, the Astros had one of the most powerful lineups they ever fielded. At first and second were, of course, Bagwell and Biggio. Bagwell was having something of an off year, "only" posting an OPS+ of 158. Biggio was having a great one, posting an OPS+ of 139. Moises Alou would display his pure hitting prowress: OPS+ of 157. Bill Spiers was even league-average that year. Ausmus had his third best season: OPS+ of 91. Guys like Richard Hidalgo rounded out the bench and lineup. I'd say it was the best lineup of hitters the Astros would field until 2004.
Oddly enough, for a team that many associate with outstanding pitching talent, the late 90s Astros had little of it. But we did have solid starters. Jose Lima had the worst ERA of the starters at 5.28 - he would be a year away from "Lima Time." Mike Hampton and Shane Reynolds would have ERAs of 3.36 and 3.51, respectively - slightly under the league average. Sean Bergman posted one of 3.72; again, slightly better than league average. The Astros had one shitty pitcher and three semi-good ones.
Until Johnson was traded to the Astros. Johnson was in his contract year with the Mariners, and had apparently been in something of a malaise for most of the season. But the Astros dealt John Halama (a player to be named later, he was the Astros' other shitty fifth starter in 1998), Carlos Guillen (still in the MLB with the Tigers), and Freddy Garcia (just came out of rehab and signed a deal with the Tigers). This was back when the Astros could afford to do this sort of thing with the farm system - Draft and Follow had proven to be something that the Astros were awesome at, and all of Venezuela was essentially the Astros' territory. We could afford to lose a Major League pitcher and two top prospects for a guy who we knew would only be in Houston for a few months.
So Johnson came to Houston and promptly posted a 1.28 ERA in his 11 starts. Had he done this in Seattle for anything close to the whole season, he probably would have won his second Cy Young that year. In any case, he still came in 7th in NL Cy Young voting that year. Oh yeah, and we had some dude named Wagner as our closer. So with four average starters, one awesome starter, and one of the best bullpen aces of all time, the Astros would roll towards the playoffs with Bagwell, Biggio, and Johnson leading the way.
The NLDS pitted the Cubs (who won the wild card) against the Atlanta Braves and the Padres against the Astros. In stark contrast to what will happen this year, with three good teams making the playoffs and one bad team showing up from the NL West, the 1998 season saw remarkable parity amongst the divisons. San Diego had won 98 games, Atlanta 105, and Houston 102. Chicago, San Francisco, and New York were locked in a three-way fight for the wild card. The Giants and Cubs would play each other in a tiebreaker to determine the wild card.
A lot of people picked the 98 Astros as the NL Pennant favorite. And they were probably right. What nobody accounted for was the sudden failure of the Astros hitters.
The simple fact was that Bagwell, Biggio, Alou and the rest were atrocious in the postseason that year. It shouldn't have been even close. Other than our friend Caminiti (who had finally gotten the drugs and drinking under control and was displaying his hitting talent at full force), Tony Gwynn, and Greg Vaughn (who was having an absolutely ridiculous year, hitting 50 homers and OPS+ at 150. The guy never had anything even CLOSE to that before or after), the Padres didn't have the hitting skills of the Astros. And they certainly didn't have the raw slugging ability.
Pitching was similar, as well. The Padres had two starters with better-than-average ERAs: Ace Kevin Brown and less-than-ace Andy Ashby. They featured one of the premier closers of his time and all-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman. But again, they didn't have the talent that Houston had. Johnson was better than Brown. Hampton was better than Ashby. Wagner was better than Hoffman. Bagwell was better than Caminiti, Alou was better than Vaughn, and Biggio was better than Gwynn.
But the Astros would be defeated 3-1 in the series. What the fuck happened?
Luck happened. Brown was hot, as was Johnson. But the Padres' hitters were hot, too, while the Astros' hitters simply weren't. A lot of people like to believe that it was the Astros' lack of left-handed hitting. I don't think that's the case. Left-hand right-hand crap only matters in extreme cases.
Well, maybe it was just the pitching. Maybe Bagwell and Biggio just got blown away by Brown.
But the problem with that is our data for their career stats against Brown. Bagwell had an .870 OPS against Brown, lifetime. He could handle Brown in other circumstances (interestingly, to me anyways, is that Bagwell's #1 Pitcher Faced was Maddux. And he posted pretty good numbers against Maddux, too. Bags didn't have a problem with good pitchers).
Biggio has a less pretty career line against Brown: .188/.308/.313. But that's pretty typical for Bidge. As Bill James and others have noted, Biggio had a very extreme good pitcher/bad pitcher split. He could still hit a good pitcher (again, Mad Dog was his #1 pitcher faced. Career .723 OPS. He was plunked twice), but not like how he could hit a bad one. I don't really feel like looking up the career lines of Alou or Bell against Brown right now, but I'm sure they're fairly similar.
It was just luck of the draw. From 1997 on, the Astros faced spectacular pitchers in the postseason. They faced the ridiculously good Braves' pitching corps year after year - the one including future Hall of Famers Maddux, Smoltz, and Glavine. They just didn't have the success they found in the regular season. Balls didn't fall in the right spots, pitches once called strikes were now called balls, their bats were just off by a few sixteenths of an inch. They just got unlucky.
That still leaves the "choking" explanation. I've always loved Choke City as a nickname for Houston (it's why I named the blog that, along with the Chacon-Wade incident). Houston has a fine history of choking - the 1993 Oilers come to mind, as do the 1986 Rockets, the Rockets from 2003 on, and plenty of other cases.
But people don't become big league ballplayers if they can't handle pressure. Bagwell was dealing with pitches whizzing past his head at 90+ MPH almost every day for six months. He could handle pressure. The only explanation that makes any sense is luck. And that shouldn't be held against the Stros or any other franchise.
We can wonder about "what if." What if the Astros had swept the Fightin' Fathers? We would have met up with the Atlanta Braves once again. That would have been truly epic, as always. I think that would have cemented the Astros-Braves rivalry then and there. Had the Stros won the NLCS, they would have faced the Yankees. And I think the Astros would have faced much better chances against the '98 Yankees than the '98 Padres did. We might have seen the Astros' first World Series victory in 1998, "only" 36 years after enfranchisement. It would have been a thing to behold.
As it is, we had to wait for our first postseason victory against the Braves until 2004. And I think everyone would agree that the 2005 encounter between the two teams, with Roger Clemens emerging from the bullpen as the Astros' last chance to put the game away as the greatest postseason game ever played - even greater than the 1986 NLCS Game 6.
But luck played a major factor in everything. The postseason is not a good way to determine the best team, but it is a dramatic one. And that's alright. We don't watch baseball as a lesson on probability (well, I do), we watch it for the story and drama and battle.
But the Astros still got fucked.
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