Things I Was Wrong About:

You don't have to go too far back for my posts relating to the Astros to be about how this season was going to suck. I've been proven wrong by fate, and I'd like to cop to it.

1) Reggie Abercrombie: okay, so he's only had a grand total of 49 PAs this year, but he's currently hitting .319/.340/.532. He's turned into, if nothing else, a decent 4th OF. Of course, the Astros have several of those, but that's okay. In the past, I've said he was downright awful. That's untrue. He's a below-average to average CF.

2) Randy Wolf: I thought this was just a terrible trade. I thought it was, at best, a $3 million draft pick. In truth, it's that and more. Randy has been a good pitcher while we've had him. He's helped take the Astros this far.

3) Latroy Hawkins: thought he was done. Figured that if the Yankees didn't want him, we probably shouldn't, either. Hawkins is no longer the pitcher he was, say, four years ago. His K/9 rate is down for his career (though it is up from last year). But he's kept the ball in the yard and posted 13 consecutive scoreless innings while a Good Guy. He has yet to give up a run as an Astro. That's pretty fuckin' great.

4) Ed Wade: I don't think he's a genius. But he's done well. He was given a mandate: compete now with what we've got. He was told to make an all-or-nothing run at the playoffs, and he gave it the best try he could. The result: the Astros are going to have at least a winning season, and have a long-distance chance of playing in October.

If you go through Wade's decisions, there are really six big ones: 1) the Tejada trade, 2) the Wolf trade, 3) the Hawkins trade, 4) signing Kazuo Matsui, 5) the Lidge trade, and finally 6) the Valverde trade. I think we can say that he got at least 3/5 right. Maybe 3/5.

Let's start with Wolf. Wolf has produced a good ERA and WHIP as an Astro. For $3 million, the Astros were able to jettison Runelvys Hernandez and get a 2nd or 3rd starter. It took the pressure off of Roy (who, at the time, wasn't doing so hot) and Moehler to perform. He was worth it, especially if he nets the Astros another draft pick. Of course, the Astros also gave up Chad Reineke, who will probably make the majors, but who definitely was no star.

Next is Hawkins. The best part of this is that Hawkins was, for all intents and purposes, free. We gave up the Astros' only Single A all-star, but it was really not a big loss. Unfortunately, Hawkins probably won't be a compensatory-pick-eligible FA after this season, but we might be able to sign him again for pretty cheap, if nothing else.

Kazuo. I think this was probably Wade's biggest mistake. Matsui's injury history was a known element, and paying $4 million for a 2B who has yet to play 120 games in the States was stupid. With that said, Kazuo is also one of the few dependable offensive weapons the Astros have. It's too bad he won't even play in 100 games this year, because we needed him. Signing him wasn't a bad idea, but doing so for so much cash certainly was.

Tejada always pisses me off. Not because he's older than he said he was or because he probably did steroids (everyone probably knew about the former, and I don't give a shit about the latter). It's because his drop off in production has been so sudden. Last year, he posted an OPS+ of 109. The year before, however, it was 126. Now it's 95.

And I think it's something he can easily fix. The guy was awesome at the beginning of the season. He was fantastic. But he quickly tired. He's no longer in his 20s. He no longer is getting help from drugs. He needs to recognize that he just can't be the Miggy Tejada that played in 1152 games straight. He's said that he won't play winter ball in the DR this year, so that will help. And Coop will probably be more willing to rest him next year. I hope his number will improve next year, and I think they probably will. He still won't be the old Tejada, but he'll be above average.

Now, Wade traded for him. He correctly recognized that, provided they could find a SS like Tejada, Adam Everett was replaceable. I don't know if Everett should have simply been let go, but it was, at the time, a smart move.

The Lidge trade is slightly more complex. On the one hand, the Astros gave up one of the greatest relievers in the game. On the other hand, 2006 was a rough year for Brad, and while 2007 was an improvement, one could have made an argument (albeit a stupid one) that he wasn't going to go back to being "Lights-Out" status.

More importantly, he was a high-value player in his contract year. And Lidge, thanks partly to his treatment at the hands of Astros fans in 2006 and partly to the high-demand for closers, was going to demand a great deal of cash for 2009. Trading him was a good idea.

But we got Villareal, Geary, and Bourn in return. Villareal washed out, Geary has been a decent reliever, and Bourn has been awful most of the year. Bourn's improving, but it's going to take a lot to make the trade worth it.

Valverde is an interesting case. I've said before that Qualls could have easily performed the same duties for considerably less, and I still believe that to be the case. But Valverde wasn't a bad acquisition. And if the Astros are able to get good value for him in either the draft or on the trading block, then he'll be worth it.

Lastly, there's the farm system. Take a look at BR's minor league reference pages on the Astros affiliates. We have four players in the system with OPS values above .900: Our friend Bogusevic (OF; 24 y/o; AA Corpus), Luis Alvarez (C/1B/3B; 18 y/o; Venezuela), Nathan Metroka (OF; 21 y/o; Rk. Greenville), and Drew Sutton (2B; 25 y/o; AA Corpus). Of those, three are the products of the Hunsicker/Purpura era. Only Metroka is new (though Alvarez has only spent two years in the Astros' system).

But Wade has said he's going to rebuild the system. And the draft reflects that. The Astros weren't the biggest spenders, but they drafted mostly college kids and spent wisely. BP thinks the Castro selection was stupid, but he didn't have some of the signability issues of Smoak, allowing the Astros to spend elsewhere. He's expanding the Dominican program, which is going to be critical. Especially since what little the MLB has gained in Venezuela is probably going to go to hell because of the political situation.

Anyways, those guys I pointed out are interesting. We have two (Sutton and Bogusevic) who will probably be called up soon. I can imagine both getting jobs in Spring Training or being called up during the season. The other two are either in Rookie ball or in a foreign league. They're both several years away, but it gives us some hope.

Maybe it's just the euphoria of seeing the Astros make this run, but I'm filled with a strange sense of encouragement. Oddly, I'm feeling this a lot about Houston sports recently. Yeah, the Texans got their asses kicked last week, but they'll probably be okay. The Rockets are going to be killer this season. And maybe the Astros are going to be alright next year. Yeah, they'll still be an aging team with major issues, but maybe the Wade plan can work. We'll have to see.