Ugh. Paper due tomorrow (no biggy, just metaphysics) and my Russian professor is riding my ass. Really thinking about dropping that class. But I only need to finish it to complete my foreign language requirement. Why the fuck do we need 12 hours of a foreign language to graduate?
And I can't get hold of my mom. I called Saturday morning, and she was alright, but I've heard that the power in Montgomery county might be out for "weeks." If that's the case, she really needs to get out to Dallas to stay with my uncle. No reason a 60 year old woman needs to be staying in a house without power for weeks, even if the alternative is Dallas.
Nor will I be able to watch the Astros game (probably not, anyways, unless I can get that proxy server to work and trick MLB.tv into letting me see a blacked out game). I hate that the Astros have sold Sunday games to my20. Bunch of bullshit.
So days like this get me thinking. Joe Posnanski has an article about Jackal at his website, the typical fellating bullshit about how he could be the greatest player of all fucking time. I don't usually buy that "he could be the greatest if he just tried harder" crap. The man is 31. He is what he is, and he's a professional ballplayer. He tries hard every game.
Nevertheless, the New York media is going to ride his ass. He's like A-Rod; he's always going to be second-best to whomever the media loves at the moment (Reyes/Jeter), and will always be not quite good enough for their affections.
It's intriguing to me that writers don't think he "fits" New York. Maybe Beltran feels the same way. Maybe he thinks that New York isn't the place for him, that he'd be a better fit for Kansas City or Atlanta or Milwaukee or (dare I say it?) Houston.
People loved him when he was in Houston. He was a young superstar in a team that included plenty of other superstars. We loved his abilities. We loved his performance in the playoffs. He was immediately another Killer B. He could do no wrong.
Until he played the Astros for suckers. Then, he got booed at every Mets-Astros game.
And why did he leave? It's come out that the Astros offered him more money than the Mets gave him. The Yankees didn't want him (but he desperately wanted them). The Mets were his consolation prize.
So what happened? He had an off year in 2005, posting a .266/.330/.414 line for the season. OPS+ of 96. He was badmouthed in New York. And I'm sure he might have started questioning his decisions of December of 2004, as the Astros went to the World Series without him and the Mets played golf.
Had he stayed here, he would have been a star. Even if he had the same season in Houston, no Chronicle employee would eviscerate Beltran in the paper. He would never have been booed in Minute Maid. Just as the Hispanic community has fallen behind Carlos Lee, they would have embraced Beltran as representative and chosen son. Even if he had struck out every AB in the 2005 playoffs, the guy would have been loved.
You don't have to be great to be loved in Houston sports. We embraced Ensberg and Luke Scott . We didn't care about Everett's shitty batting line. You just have to show up every day and pretend you care. Granted, Astros fans' behavior towards Lidge in 2006 was despicable, but still.
So I think about the 2005 that might have been, had Beltran been re-signed and had Hunsicker stayed on.
Kent's option would still likely have been dropped, if only to have paid for Beltran's salary. This would place Biggio back at 2B, just as in the real 2005. If not, then the Astros would likely have kept Bidge in LF, at least until Bagwell went down. Maybe the Astros would have gone for the Reds' proposed trade of Adam Dunn. That would have been awesome. If Kent were still with the team, then he might have been moved to 1B, or possibly over to third. If not, the Berkman takes his rightful place at first.
Imagine that lineup! A Berkman-Beltran-Dunn-Ensberg lineup looks a lot better against the Chicago pitchers than the Berkman-Ensberg-Bagwell lineup of reality. Beltran would have possibly gotten that WS ring.
Ahh, to dream.
Fuck Carlos Beltran. Stupid fucking fuck.
Showing posts with label mets. Show all posts
Showing posts with label mets. Show all posts
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Friday, August 22, 2008
Tough choice today; Deconstructing the Wizard
So I leave for Tulane tomorrow. Not all that keen on going back to school, but whatever. I've got to finish getting the debate society ready. I really need to just hand the tournament and campus debate stuff off to my officers. I can just be a figurehead.
My roommate's name is Zhong Jian Jiang. I think he might be Chinese. I had hoped for a single this year, but having to live in the same room with someone isn't too bad.
Roy gets a start against Santana today, in what will be the last series this season against the Mets. The Texans take on the Cowboys tonight, too. So I'm left with something of a dilemma. The Astros game starts at 6, and while Roy and Santana are quick workers, I doubt the game will be over in an hour. At the same time, the Texans game starts at 7. Preseason football is meaningless, but the prospect of seeing the Texans destroy the Cowboys is always tempting, especially since we don't play them in regular season this year. I'd rank beating the Cowboys to being only slightly less than beating the Titans on the "Cathartic Sports Experiences" list. Third is beating the Braves and Cardinals in the playoffs. Fourth is beating the motherfucking Jazz.
So, unless the Astros game is a blowout (in which case I'll probably still watch in hand-wringing anxiety over the state of our ace pitcher), I'll have to flip between channels. And the problem with that is that baseball is a game best watched over a long period - quick glimpses of it don't give the appropriate "feel" for the game. But football isn't something you can just ignore for a few minutes. The entire course of the game can change on one bad pass. It's a tough decision, hence the title for the post.
I also watched the Bears-49ers game last night. Tulane alum Matt Forte (really a surprise to everyone that he was taken in the 2nd round) started the night at RB for Chicago. He got 44 yards in 11 carries, better than Reggie Bush. And he caught one reception for seven yards. Pretty good for his second professional game. I only ever met the guy once, and he seemed like a pretty down-to-earth type. Pretty smart guy, too. So I (and the rest of Tulane, I'm sure) am glad that he's getting a chance at the professional level. Hopefully it works out for him.
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The Crawfish Boxes once again has a pretty good statistical article. This time, DyingQuail looks at the difference between Roy's DIPS and his ERA. He comes up with a fairly disturbing revelation: Roy is pitching even worse that his ERA would indicate.
As I point out in the comments section, I think that most of his problems can be attributed to his completely wacky HR/FB ratio. I also pointed out that much of the variation in his HR/9 stat could be normal noise. If you look at any pitcher's HR/9 rate, you'll find a great deal of deviation from year to year.
Roy has had an improvement this year: an increase in his K/BB ratio. DyingQuail attributes this to the absence of Adam Everett - Roy is no longer pitching to contact with Tejada behind him instead of Everett. This is certainly an interesting theory.
Roy has said, in recent interviews, that he finally feels healthy again. If that's the case, then everything should be fine next year. In the meantime, however, I'd say that it's best just to shut the Wizard down for the season and have him start whatever rehab he needs. If he needs surgery, the Roy should have it done immediately. If he just needs rest and time, then he can have an extra month to do so.
As the guys at Baseball Prospectus have pointed out time and again, Roy is a statistical outlier. That's why he's the Wizard - he's a small guy who throws hard with great finesse and can seemingly get himself out of the worst situations on a routine basis. He's also a lot like John Smoltz - he's cool with pushing himself well past where he should stop. That he told Coop that he needed to be taken out of that game in Dallas should have been an alarm bell for management and the trainers.
Roy will rebound. He's had an off season. But even the best pitchers have those. The key is just to pack it up for the season and try again next year.
My roommate's name is Zhong Jian Jiang. I think he might be Chinese. I had hoped for a single this year, but having to live in the same room with someone isn't too bad.
Roy gets a start against Santana today, in what will be the last series this season against the Mets. The Texans take on the Cowboys tonight, too. So I'm left with something of a dilemma. The Astros game starts at 6, and while Roy and Santana are quick workers, I doubt the game will be over in an hour. At the same time, the Texans game starts at 7. Preseason football is meaningless, but the prospect of seeing the Texans destroy the Cowboys is always tempting, especially since we don't play them in regular season this year. I'd rank beating the Cowboys to being only slightly less than beating the Titans on the "Cathartic Sports Experiences" list. Third is beating the Braves and Cardinals in the playoffs. Fourth is beating the motherfucking Jazz.
So, unless the Astros game is a blowout (in which case I'll probably still watch in hand-wringing anxiety over the state of our ace pitcher), I'll have to flip between channels. And the problem with that is that baseball is a game best watched over a long period - quick glimpses of it don't give the appropriate "feel" for the game. But football isn't something you can just ignore for a few minutes. The entire course of the game can change on one bad pass. It's a tough decision, hence the title for the post.
I also watched the Bears-49ers game last night. Tulane alum Matt Forte (really a surprise to everyone that he was taken in the 2nd round) started the night at RB for Chicago. He got 44 yards in 11 carries, better than Reggie Bush. And he caught one reception for seven yards. Pretty good for his second professional game. I only ever met the guy once, and he seemed like a pretty down-to-earth type. Pretty smart guy, too. So I (and the rest of Tulane, I'm sure) am glad that he's getting a chance at the professional level. Hopefully it works out for him.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Crawfish Boxes once again has a pretty good statistical article. This time, DyingQuail looks at the difference between Roy's DIPS and his ERA. He comes up with a fairly disturbing revelation: Roy is pitching even worse that his ERA would indicate.
As I point out in the comments section, I think that most of his problems can be attributed to his completely wacky HR/FB ratio. I also pointed out that much of the variation in his HR/9 stat could be normal noise. If you look at any pitcher's HR/9 rate, you'll find a great deal of deviation from year to year.
Roy has had an improvement this year: an increase in his K/BB ratio. DyingQuail attributes this to the absence of Adam Everett - Roy is no longer pitching to contact with Tejada behind him instead of Everett. This is certainly an interesting theory.
Roy has said, in recent interviews, that he finally feels healthy again. If that's the case, then everything should be fine next year. In the meantime, however, I'd say that it's best just to shut the Wizard down for the season and have him start whatever rehab he needs. If he needs surgery, the Roy should have it done immediately. If he just needs rest and time, then he can have an extra month to do so.
As the guys at Baseball Prospectus have pointed out time and again, Roy is a statistical outlier. That's why he's the Wizard - he's a small guy who throws hard with great finesse and can seemingly get himself out of the worst situations on a routine basis. He's also a lot like John Smoltz - he's cool with pushing himself well past where he should stop. That he told Coop that he needed to be taken out of that game in Dallas should have been an alarm bell for management and the trainers.
Roy will rebound. He's had an off season. But even the best pitchers have those. The key is just to pack it up for the season and try again next year.
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