I think around the time when a team has a 1-in-6 shot at the playoffs, they're officially "back in it." Well, the Astros are almost at that point.
Again, going by ELO Playoff Odds:
Wild Card:
Milwaukee: 57.6%
Houston: 15.2%
Philly: 14.5%
St. Louis: 3.4%
The Astros' dumbass train keeps rolling along. We'll see what's going to happen in the next few days. We'll be in an interesting position, come Monday.
In all this talk about the Wild Card, I hardly noticed something about last night: the Astros have now won 80 games. They've all but clinched a winning season. That's pretty cool.
The writers at Baseball Prospectus will continue to point out that the Astros have gotten insanely hot and lucky in the past two months, but I'm inclined to start changing my opinion of the Good Guys. Yeah, this current stretch is certainly the result of that combination, but it's possible that the Astros really are much better than we thought.
The first consideration is the problems the Brewers have been facing: they have an awful bullpen. The Astros have an awesome one. In the long run, the bullpen's performance can make up for a lot of poor starting pitching. Our bench is similarly great.
That combination has allowed the Astros to survive injuries to starting players, the early crapout of Roy, and the lack of depth in the rotation. Ed Wade is no genius, but he did put together a team that could compete in a tough division. In most other sports, that gets you a playoff spot. In baseball, it makes you an also-ran.
The Astros have cut the RS-RA differential to -7. Their still a projected sub-.500 team, but that's going to change soon. As I've said before, Coop has allowed plenty of blowouts to take place. He's left Backe and Wandy and even Roy in games to get knocked around. Maybe that's fucked with the projections.
Speaking of Roy, he's awesome. He broke JR Richard's record for consecutive scoreless innings last night, and he's transformed himself into the Wizard once more. That's why we're paying him $15 million to play a children's game. Oh, and he faced only 27 hitters last night. All 3 runners were retired in double plays. Good job, Roy.
Showing posts with label oswalt. Show all posts
Showing posts with label oswalt. Show all posts
Friday, September 12, 2008
Friday, August 22, 2008
Tough choice today; Deconstructing the Wizard
So I leave for Tulane tomorrow. Not all that keen on going back to school, but whatever. I've got to finish getting the debate society ready. I really need to just hand the tournament and campus debate stuff off to my officers. I can just be a figurehead.
My roommate's name is Zhong Jian Jiang. I think he might be Chinese. I had hoped for a single this year, but having to live in the same room with someone isn't too bad.
Roy gets a start against Santana today, in what will be the last series this season against the Mets. The Texans take on the Cowboys tonight, too. So I'm left with something of a dilemma. The Astros game starts at 6, and while Roy and Santana are quick workers, I doubt the game will be over in an hour. At the same time, the Texans game starts at 7. Preseason football is meaningless, but the prospect of seeing the Texans destroy the Cowboys is always tempting, especially since we don't play them in regular season this year. I'd rank beating the Cowboys to being only slightly less than beating the Titans on the "Cathartic Sports Experiences" list. Third is beating the Braves and Cardinals in the playoffs. Fourth is beating the motherfucking Jazz.
So, unless the Astros game is a blowout (in which case I'll probably still watch in hand-wringing anxiety over the state of our ace pitcher), I'll have to flip between channels. And the problem with that is that baseball is a game best watched over a long period - quick glimpses of it don't give the appropriate "feel" for the game. But football isn't something you can just ignore for a few minutes. The entire course of the game can change on one bad pass. It's a tough decision, hence the title for the post.
I also watched the Bears-49ers game last night. Tulane alum Matt Forte (really a surprise to everyone that he was taken in the 2nd round) started the night at RB for Chicago. He got 44 yards in 11 carries, better than Reggie Bush. And he caught one reception for seven yards. Pretty good for his second professional game. I only ever met the guy once, and he seemed like a pretty down-to-earth type. Pretty smart guy, too. So I (and the rest of Tulane, I'm sure) am glad that he's getting a chance at the professional level. Hopefully it works out for him.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Crawfish Boxes once again has a pretty good statistical article. This time, DyingQuail looks at the difference between Roy's DIPS and his ERA. He comes up with a fairly disturbing revelation: Roy is pitching even worse that his ERA would indicate.
As I point out in the comments section, I think that most of his problems can be attributed to his completely wacky HR/FB ratio. I also pointed out that much of the variation in his HR/9 stat could be normal noise. If you look at any pitcher's HR/9 rate, you'll find a great deal of deviation from year to year.
Roy has had an improvement this year: an increase in his K/BB ratio. DyingQuail attributes this to the absence of Adam Everett - Roy is no longer pitching to contact with Tejada behind him instead of Everett. This is certainly an interesting theory.
Roy has said, in recent interviews, that he finally feels healthy again. If that's the case, then everything should be fine next year. In the meantime, however, I'd say that it's best just to shut the Wizard down for the season and have him start whatever rehab he needs. If he needs surgery, the Roy should have it done immediately. If he just needs rest and time, then he can have an extra month to do so.
As the guys at Baseball Prospectus have pointed out time and again, Roy is a statistical outlier. That's why he's the Wizard - he's a small guy who throws hard with great finesse and can seemingly get himself out of the worst situations on a routine basis. He's also a lot like John Smoltz - he's cool with pushing himself well past where he should stop. That he told Coop that he needed to be taken out of that game in Dallas should have been an alarm bell for management and the trainers.
Roy will rebound. He's had an off season. But even the best pitchers have those. The key is just to pack it up for the season and try again next year.
My roommate's name is Zhong Jian Jiang. I think he might be Chinese. I had hoped for a single this year, but having to live in the same room with someone isn't too bad.
Roy gets a start against Santana today, in what will be the last series this season against the Mets. The Texans take on the Cowboys tonight, too. So I'm left with something of a dilemma. The Astros game starts at 6, and while Roy and Santana are quick workers, I doubt the game will be over in an hour. At the same time, the Texans game starts at 7. Preseason football is meaningless, but the prospect of seeing the Texans destroy the Cowboys is always tempting, especially since we don't play them in regular season this year. I'd rank beating the Cowboys to being only slightly less than beating the Titans on the "Cathartic Sports Experiences" list. Third is beating the Braves and Cardinals in the playoffs. Fourth is beating the motherfucking Jazz.
So, unless the Astros game is a blowout (in which case I'll probably still watch in hand-wringing anxiety over the state of our ace pitcher), I'll have to flip between channels. And the problem with that is that baseball is a game best watched over a long period - quick glimpses of it don't give the appropriate "feel" for the game. But football isn't something you can just ignore for a few minutes. The entire course of the game can change on one bad pass. It's a tough decision, hence the title for the post.
I also watched the Bears-49ers game last night. Tulane alum Matt Forte (really a surprise to everyone that he was taken in the 2nd round) started the night at RB for Chicago. He got 44 yards in 11 carries, better than Reggie Bush. And he caught one reception for seven yards. Pretty good for his second professional game. I only ever met the guy once, and he seemed like a pretty down-to-earth type. Pretty smart guy, too. So I (and the rest of Tulane, I'm sure) am glad that he's getting a chance at the professional level. Hopefully it works out for him.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Crawfish Boxes once again has a pretty good statistical article. This time, DyingQuail looks at the difference between Roy's DIPS and his ERA. He comes up with a fairly disturbing revelation: Roy is pitching even worse that his ERA would indicate.
As I point out in the comments section, I think that most of his problems can be attributed to his completely wacky HR/FB ratio. I also pointed out that much of the variation in his HR/9 stat could be normal noise. If you look at any pitcher's HR/9 rate, you'll find a great deal of deviation from year to year.
Roy has had an improvement this year: an increase in his K/BB ratio. DyingQuail attributes this to the absence of Adam Everett - Roy is no longer pitching to contact with Tejada behind him instead of Everett. This is certainly an interesting theory.
Roy has said, in recent interviews, that he finally feels healthy again. If that's the case, then everything should be fine next year. In the meantime, however, I'd say that it's best just to shut the Wizard down for the season and have him start whatever rehab he needs. If he needs surgery, the Roy should have it done immediately. If he just needs rest and time, then he can have an extra month to do so.
As the guys at Baseball Prospectus have pointed out time and again, Roy is a statistical outlier. That's why he's the Wizard - he's a small guy who throws hard with great finesse and can seemingly get himself out of the worst situations on a routine basis. He's also a lot like John Smoltz - he's cool with pushing himself well past where he should stop. That he told Coop that he needed to be taken out of that game in Dallas should have been an alarm bell for management and the trainers.
Roy will rebound. He's had an off season. But even the best pitchers have those. The key is just to pack it up for the season and try again next year.
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
The Other Way of Winning
With everything I said yesterday, one could get the impression that it's impossible for the Astros to win without enduring several losing seasons. That's not necessarily true.
It is possible to win via free agency, but it gets expensive quick, particularly now that our best farm-grown talent (Lance and Roy) are free agents themselves. But both are locked into long-term contracts with no trade clauses - these are essentially sunk costs.
So we have the basis to form a good team: A hitter on a HOF career path, another that's in the top 20 hitters in the country, and one of the best pitchers of his generation. We've got something here to work with.
If we were to sign Wigginton to another contract (and this might be dangerous; he's had a few decent seasons and now one great season) and we solidify and fine-tune the bullpen, we have only a few problem areas:
1) The starting rotation.
2) Shortstop
3) Catcher
Let's start with the rotation.
I think it's fair to assume that Roy will return to form next year. I've been looking at his numbers, and what jumps out at me is that there's only been one category in his "controllable factors" that has gotten significantly worse: Homers/9IP. (For those not familiar with statistical evaluation of pitchers beyond ERA, a quick explanation is needed. A guy named Voros McCraken found out in the mid-90s that pitchers' ERAs, WHIP, etc are essentially not correlated with one another from year to year. In other words, pitchers really can't DIRECTLY control whether something is a hit or an easy fly out. Further research has shown that there are a few things that pitchers can control: Walks, K's, Ground Ball / Fly Ball ratio, and how many homers they allow. Roy, for instance, strikes out a ton of dudes, doesn't walk many at all, mostly gives up easy ground balls, and usually doesn't allow many homers. That last category has increased, but should go down.)
Okay, so we assume Roy is back to being the Wizard next year. We still need at least one other great starting pitcher for this to work. Who will be available? Quick answer: a ton.
Here are the ones that jump out at me.
AJ Burnett is the AL leader in K's, now that Sabatthia has left for Milwaukee. He's played in Toronto since 2006, and he's made it clear that he'll be opting out of his contract at the end of the season. He obviously strikes out a lot of hitters, walks more than his fair share, and mostly gives up ground balls. He's Roy without the control. Or Nolan Ryan with more control. His current contract pays him some $13.2 million. He's from Arkansas, so he's kind of a local guy. Sorta. Not really.
The issues with Burnett are 1) his desired contract. The guy's probably going to want something even bigger than he has now (unless he's leaving simply because he hates Toronto or the Blue Jays organization), maybe with even more years. 2) The guy spends too much time on the DL. He gets injured a lot. 2) Might reduce the significance of 1), but he's going to want to get paid. His asking price is probably going to be anywhere between $10 and $14 million. Going from PECOTA projections, we could probably get away with a 3 or 4 year deal. Anything more is asking for trouble. But it also gives us trade options down the road.
You might remember Jon Garland as the guy who gave Ozzie Guillen a big kiss after the 2005 World Series. He's more of a control guy - he doesn't walk many hitters at all, but he also doesn't strike out many people. Pretty average GB/FB ratio. He's Roy without the good fastball, sinker, power curve, or daring-do. Currently, he's employed with the Angels on a $12 million/year contract. That's probably too much money for the guy, but we'll see what he gets in free agency.
John Lackey is, like Garland, currently an Angel. He's got a $9 million option for next year with a 0.5 million buyout clause. If he feels that he can get more on the open market (he can), then he'll probably leave. Strikes out a lot, walks few, mostly GBs (though not as extreme as Roy or Burnett). Again, he'll want the cash.
Sabatthia will probably end up with a much wealthier club than the Astros. He's gonna want some serious cash. He's young, he's really good, and he's worth it to whoever gets him. While it would be a major coup if the Good Guys land him, I doubt they'll pull that one off. The good news is that the offers to Sabatthia might lessen the offers for other great pitchers. This wouldn't be true in real life, but the economics of baseball are all fucked up.
Sheets is one of those guys whom Drayton loves - he's local (Louisiana), the guys in the clubhouse love him (Burnett doesn't really seem like he'd get on well with the kinda conservative vibe of the Stros clubhouse), and he gets injured a ton. He's the second coming of Andy Pettitte.
Sheets was abused like Roy in his early career. Roy was able to take it, but Sheets really wasn't. They're remarkably similar pitchers, and they'll command remarkably similar asking prices. I'd shy away from the guy unless we get another good starter. Using the bullpen correctly with Sheets would be key - we can't overwork the guy. But Coop is anything if not eager to use his pen, so that wouldn't be an issue.
Those are the big names, anyways. My dream rotation would look something like: (1) Oswalt (2) Burnett (3) Lackey. That's unlikely, though.
We also need to look at fourth starters. We might re-sign Wolf to a short deal, which might be worth it if he's only there to eat space. But our in-house options are really limited to Backe and Wandy. Wandy is having a career year, but he's really not that good. Moehler is going to be 39 next year. He's a good fifth starter but little else. He's gotten lucky so far.
Shortstop
This is a result of Tejada continuing the suck. He's a likable guy and a clubhouse leader. Particularly for our Latin American contingent.
But the problem is that Tejada continues to not be worth his contract. While other players, at 33, start to improve their old-player skills (more walks, more power), Tejada is turning in even worse numbers there. He's walked even less than last year. He's hit fewer homers, fewer doubles, and more dinky singles than two years ago. This is problematic because we're giving him $15 million a year to be average. If we were paying him only 2 or 3 or even 5 million, this wouldn't be an issue. As I've said in the past, the first step towards improving this team is in trading Tejada. Even if we have to pick up part of the salary, it might be worth it.
The problem is that there really aren't any quality offensive shortstops in free agency. I've said previously that Everett might be worth it, simply because he'd free up payroll for other acquisitions. In the end, we might just have to hope Tejada learns to not fucking swing at pitches off of the plate. Or continue to bat him in front of Lance and Carlos.
To me, at least, the catcher position has been the most depressing part of the Astros' lineup for the last 15 years. Mitch Meluskey, who in 2000 was posting an EQA of .289 and hit 14 homers, was traded for Ausmus after he punched a teammate during BP. After that, he apparently slid into family problems and left the game.
But Meluskey was the best offensive catcher the Astros have ever had. Unfortunately, he was a dick and had terrible defense. So Ausmus got the position. Brad's main advantages are that he's pretty and can call a great game. He's a defensive catcher, which has its good points.
It looks like Q is going to get the starting role for the rest of the year, at least. Brad still catches Roy, but otherwise Q is clearly the starting catcher. Q has his assets: he's got a hell of an arm, he can take a beating, and he is cheap. On some level, that's all that you really need in a catcher.
But we REALLY need every fucking hit, double, homer, etc. that we can get. Every shred of offense is worth a great deal to this club. Q has displayed, in recent games, some power and greater ability. But I'll be inclined to think that's a fluke until the end of the season.
The problem is that there really aren't any Mike Piazzas out there. There isn't even a Bengie Molina out there. I think we're going to have to trade to get anything worthwhile in free agency. Hopefully, in two years, Jason Castro will have proven himself in the minors. In the meantime, though, the backstop position is just a black hole for outs in the lineup.
The Draft
The problem that the Astros are going to have with grabbing as many FA's as possible is the draft. This isn't as big a deal for a club with a losing record (our first round pick, but not the second, will be protected).
It is possible to get first round talent in the later rounds. It takes cash and a willingness to give in to some 21 year-old manchild prima dona's demands. If we spend in the draft - I'm talking about going toe-to-toe with the Red Sox in this - then we can quickly improve the system without having fire sales. But that's going to take 10 million a year, every year, for a few seasons.
Drayton would really have to commit to getting the best talent at every draft pick we have.
The way I see it, it's possible to drastically improve the Astros' pitching situation in December. But position players are another matter. Maybe this is what Ed Wade foresaw last Winter.
I don't think, however, that this team can be easily retooled for next season. We're competing against 29 other teams for the services of these free agents. The Yankees will be making the market for pitching very difficult, as will many other deep-pocketed teams. In order for this to work, Drayton will have to invest in pitchers like he did with Pettitte and Clemens in 2004.
I don't know if he's willing or even able to do that, though. We'll see in a few months.
It is possible to win via free agency, but it gets expensive quick, particularly now that our best farm-grown talent (Lance and Roy) are free agents themselves. But both are locked into long-term contracts with no trade clauses - these are essentially sunk costs.
So we have the basis to form a good team: A hitter on a HOF career path, another that's in the top 20 hitters in the country, and one of the best pitchers of his generation. We've got something here to work with.
If we were to sign Wigginton to another contract (and this might be dangerous; he's had a few decent seasons and now one great season) and we solidify and fine-tune the bullpen, we have only a few problem areas:
1) The starting rotation.
2) Shortstop
3) Catcher
Pitchers
Let's start with the rotation.
I think it's fair to assume that Roy will return to form next year. I've been looking at his numbers, and what jumps out at me is that there's only been one category in his "controllable factors" that has gotten significantly worse: Homers/9IP. (For those not familiar with statistical evaluation of pitchers beyond ERA, a quick explanation is needed. A guy named Voros McCraken found out in the mid-90s that pitchers' ERAs, WHIP, etc are essentially not correlated with one another from year to year. In other words, pitchers really can't DIRECTLY control whether something is a hit or an easy fly out. Further research has shown that there are a few things that pitchers can control: Walks, K's, Ground Ball / Fly Ball ratio, and how many homers they allow. Roy, for instance, strikes out a ton of dudes, doesn't walk many at all, mostly gives up easy ground balls, and usually doesn't allow many homers. That last category has increased, but should go down.)
Okay, so we assume Roy is back to being the Wizard next year. We still need at least one other great starting pitcher for this to work. Who will be available? Quick answer: a ton.
Here are the ones that jump out at me.
AJ Burnett is the AL leader in K's, now that Sabatthia has left for Milwaukee. He's played in Toronto since 2006, and he's made it clear that he'll be opting out of his contract at the end of the season. He obviously strikes out a lot of hitters, walks more than his fair share, and mostly gives up ground balls. He's Roy without the control. Or Nolan Ryan with more control. His current contract pays him some $13.2 million. He's from Arkansas, so he's kind of a local guy. Sorta. Not really.
The issues with Burnett are 1) his desired contract. The guy's probably going to want something even bigger than he has now (unless he's leaving simply because he hates Toronto or the Blue Jays organization), maybe with even more years. 2) The guy spends too much time on the DL. He gets injured a lot. 2) Might reduce the significance of 1), but he's going to want to get paid. His asking price is probably going to be anywhere between $10 and $14 million. Going from PECOTA projections, we could probably get away with a 3 or 4 year deal. Anything more is asking for trouble. But it also gives us trade options down the road.
You might remember Jon Garland as the guy who gave Ozzie Guillen a big kiss after the 2005 World Series. He's more of a control guy - he doesn't walk many hitters at all, but he also doesn't strike out many people. Pretty average GB/FB ratio. He's Roy without the good fastball, sinker, power curve, or daring-do. Currently, he's employed with the Angels on a $12 million/year contract. That's probably too much money for the guy, but we'll see what he gets in free agency.
John Lackey is, like Garland, currently an Angel. He's got a $9 million option for next year with a 0.5 million buyout clause. If he feels that he can get more on the open market (he can), then he'll probably leave. Strikes out a lot, walks few, mostly GBs (though not as extreme as Roy or Burnett). Again, he'll want the cash.
Sabatthia will probably end up with a much wealthier club than the Astros. He's gonna want some serious cash. He's young, he's really good, and he's worth it to whoever gets him. While it would be a major coup if the Good Guys land him, I doubt they'll pull that one off. The good news is that the offers to Sabatthia might lessen the offers for other great pitchers. This wouldn't be true in real life, but the economics of baseball are all fucked up.
Sheets is one of those guys whom Drayton loves - he's local (Louisiana), the guys in the clubhouse love him (Burnett doesn't really seem like he'd get on well with the kinda conservative vibe of the Stros clubhouse), and he gets injured a ton. He's the second coming of Andy Pettitte.
Sheets was abused like Roy in his early career. Roy was able to take it, but Sheets really wasn't. They're remarkably similar pitchers, and they'll command remarkably similar asking prices. I'd shy away from the guy unless we get another good starter. Using the bullpen correctly with Sheets would be key - we can't overwork the guy. But Coop is anything if not eager to use his pen, so that wouldn't be an issue.
Those are the big names, anyways. My dream rotation would look something like: (1) Oswalt (2) Burnett (3) Lackey. That's unlikely, though.
We also need to look at fourth starters. We might re-sign Wolf to a short deal, which might be worth it if he's only there to eat space. But our in-house options are really limited to Backe and Wandy. Wandy is having a career year, but he's really not that good. Moehler is going to be 39 next year. He's a good fifth starter but little else. He's gotten lucky so far.
Shortstop
This is a result of Tejada continuing the suck. He's a likable guy and a clubhouse leader. Particularly for our Latin American contingent.
But the problem is that Tejada continues to not be worth his contract. While other players, at 33, start to improve their old-player skills (more walks, more power), Tejada is turning in even worse numbers there. He's walked even less than last year. He's hit fewer homers, fewer doubles, and more dinky singles than two years ago. This is problematic because we're giving him $15 million a year to be average. If we were paying him only 2 or 3 or even 5 million, this wouldn't be an issue. As I've said in the past, the first step towards improving this team is in trading Tejada. Even if we have to pick up part of the salary, it might be worth it.
The problem is that there really aren't any quality offensive shortstops in free agency. I've said previously that Everett might be worth it, simply because he'd free up payroll for other acquisitions. In the end, we might just have to hope Tejada learns to not fucking swing at pitches off of the plate. Or continue to bat him in front of Lance and Carlos.
Catcher
To me, at least, the catcher position has been the most depressing part of the Astros' lineup for the last 15 years. Mitch Meluskey, who in 2000 was posting an EQA of .289 and hit 14 homers, was traded for Ausmus after he punched a teammate during BP. After that, he apparently slid into family problems and left the game.
But Meluskey was the best offensive catcher the Astros have ever had. Unfortunately, he was a dick and had terrible defense. So Ausmus got the position. Brad's main advantages are that he's pretty and can call a great game. He's a defensive catcher, which has its good points.
It looks like Q is going to get the starting role for the rest of the year, at least. Brad still catches Roy, but otherwise Q is clearly the starting catcher. Q has his assets: he's got a hell of an arm, he can take a beating, and he is cheap. On some level, that's all that you really need in a catcher.
But we REALLY need every fucking hit, double, homer, etc. that we can get. Every shred of offense is worth a great deal to this club. Q has displayed, in recent games, some power and greater ability. But I'll be inclined to think that's a fluke until the end of the season.
The problem is that there really aren't any Mike Piazzas out there. There isn't even a Bengie Molina out there. I think we're going to have to trade to get anything worthwhile in free agency. Hopefully, in two years, Jason Castro will have proven himself in the minors. In the meantime, though, the backstop position is just a black hole for outs in the lineup.
The Draft
The problem that the Astros are going to have with grabbing as many FA's as possible is the draft. This isn't as big a deal for a club with a losing record (our first round pick, but not the second, will be protected).
It is possible to get first round talent in the later rounds. It takes cash and a willingness to give in to some 21 year-old manchild prima dona's demands. If we spend in the draft - I'm talking about going toe-to-toe with the Red Sox in this - then we can quickly improve the system without having fire sales. But that's going to take 10 million a year, every year, for a few seasons.
Drayton would really have to commit to getting the best talent at every draft pick we have.
The way I see it, it's possible to drastically improve the Astros' pitching situation in December. But position players are another matter. Maybe this is what Ed Wade foresaw last Winter.
I don't think, however, that this team can be easily retooled for next season. We're competing against 29 other teams for the services of these free agents. The Yankees will be making the market for pitching very difficult, as will many other deep-pocketed teams. In order for this to work, Drayton will have to invest in pitchers like he did with Pettitte and Clemens in 2004.
I don't know if he's willing or even able to do that, though. We'll see in a few months.
Sunday, August 17, 2008
Retired Numbers
A while back, I read Joe Posnanski's article on retired numbers. Biggio retirement ceremony has got me thinking about it again.
Posnanski kind of slights the Astros on the quantity of numbers retired.
"No offense to the fine people of Houston but … that’s a few too many retired numbers for a 1960s expansion organization that has not yet won a World Series."
At first, this kind of pissed me off when I read it. It still does, but for different reasons. I used to be pissed off because he didn't know how fucking great Cheo Cruz and Jimmy Wynn were; now I'm pissed off because he presumes to know when Houston should retire a number.
Now that Biggio's number is retired, the Astros have retired 9 numbers:
34- Nolan Ryan
24- Jose Cruz
25- Jimmy Wynn
33- Mike Scott
49- Larry Dierker
32- Jim Umbricht
40- Don Wilson
5 - Jeff Bagwell
7 - Craig Biggio
Umbricht and Wilson's numbers were retired because of their tragic deaths. Wynn, Cruz, Scott, Ryan, Bagwell, and Biggio were all great players. Bags and Bidge are going to the hall of fame. Wynn probably should have gone, Ryan is already in, and Cruz is a borderline case who was beloved by Houston fans. Mike Scott very nearly took Houston to its first pennant. Dierker was our first really good pitcher and a fixture in the Astros organization for many years as a player, broadcaster, and manager.
It occurs to me that two other players are actually deserving of retirement: JR Richard and Joe Niekro. Both were great pitchers; both were loved by the fans. Richard stroked out on the field and was never the same. Niekro holds the Astros record for most wins (which is meaningless, I know, but he spent half of his career here and was only behind his brother and maybe Wakefield as a knuckleballer), which will likely be broken in the next few years by Oswalt.
Everyone is pretty certain that Berkman and Oswalt will have their numbers retired when they retire. Barring anything weird (Berkman goes out and shoots up downtown Houston / Oswalt turns out to be the anthrax terrorist), I'm sure they will be, too. JD and Brownie were saying that Oswalt and Berkman are in the middle of HOF careers. I'm inclined to agree, but we'll see in six years where everyone's at. Berkman's most similar batter (by similarity score) is David Ortiz, and I think everyone thinks he'll go in. In any case, it's way too early to start talking about this.
Anyways, that will mean the Astros will retire 11 numbers. I think Billy Wagner will probably be in the HOF not too long from now, and he'll probably go in as an Astro. Houston will be practically obligated to retire #13. So that's 12 numbers retired. That's a lot of jerseys. Especially for a club enfranchised in 1962. The Yankees are the only ones close, at 15 retired.
Some clubs have very strict rules about who gets their jerseys retired. The Mariners and Red Sox only permit those who have been inducted into the HOF to be retired. Most clubs have not retired anywhere close to the number Houston has.
But I don't think that's necessarily bad. There's nothing more like "Houston" than telling older cities, organizations, traditions, or whatever to fuck off. This is a city renowned for the oil boom - couldn't get much more "new money" than that until the internet bubble. We're a sprawling metropolis that flies in the face of what a city should be. The Astrodome - the symbol of this city and the Astros organization - was the biggest, tackiest architectural monstrosity money could buy. Older clubs played in parks like Yankee stadium and Fenway. We played on artificial grass with air conditioning and the home run spectacular. Our grounds crew wore fucking space helmets. We wore the rainbow guts. The Oilers played Run-and-Shoot. The Rockets had the Dream Shake. The Cougars redefined college basketball. The city of Houston doesn't give a shit about your fucking traditions.
So if we want to retire every fucking number between 1 and 99, and start issuing symbols and letters, then we can and will. I hope they retire Roger Clemens' number, too, even if he's denied a Hall of Fame spot for this steroids crap. Fuck them dumbass Yankees - he delivered us our first pennant. And you'll just have to deal with it.
I think the same applies for the Texans. We should retire every number the Oilers retired before Bud Adams consummated his relationship with the devil. And if Goodell has a problem with it he can shove it up his ass. The NFL fucked us over in 1997, and they let fucking Cleveland keep its club name, records, etc, while the legacy of the Oilers left for hillbilly country. Warren Moon and Earl Campbell didn't even fucking play in Tennessee, ever. Why the fuck should they get to keep their records and numbers? Campbell didn't cripple himself for Memphis, he did it for Houston.
Fuck. Now I'm all angry again. Fuck Bud Adams.
Posnanski kind of slights the Astros on the quantity of numbers retired.
"No offense to the fine people of Houston but … that’s a few too many retired numbers for a 1960s expansion organization that has not yet won a World Series."
At first, this kind of pissed me off when I read it. It still does, but for different reasons. I used to be pissed off because he didn't know how fucking great Cheo Cruz and Jimmy Wynn were; now I'm pissed off because he presumes to know when Houston should retire a number.
Now that Biggio's number is retired, the Astros have retired 9 numbers:
34- Nolan Ryan
24- Jose Cruz
25- Jimmy Wynn
33- Mike Scott
49- Larry Dierker
32- Jim Umbricht
40- Don Wilson
5 - Jeff Bagwell
7 - Craig Biggio
Umbricht and Wilson's numbers were retired because of their tragic deaths. Wynn, Cruz, Scott, Ryan, Bagwell, and Biggio were all great players. Bags and Bidge are going to the hall of fame. Wynn probably should have gone, Ryan is already in, and Cruz is a borderline case who was beloved by Houston fans. Mike Scott very nearly took Houston to its first pennant. Dierker was our first really good pitcher and a fixture in the Astros organization for many years as a player, broadcaster, and manager.
It occurs to me that two other players are actually deserving of retirement: JR Richard and Joe Niekro. Both were great pitchers; both were loved by the fans. Richard stroked out on the field and was never the same. Niekro holds the Astros record for most wins (which is meaningless, I know, but he spent half of his career here and was only behind his brother and maybe Wakefield as a knuckleballer), which will likely be broken in the next few years by Oswalt.
Everyone is pretty certain that Berkman and Oswalt will have their numbers retired when they retire. Barring anything weird (Berkman goes out and shoots up downtown Houston / Oswalt turns out to be the anthrax terrorist), I'm sure they will be, too. JD and Brownie were saying that Oswalt and Berkman are in the middle of HOF careers. I'm inclined to agree, but we'll see in six years where everyone's at. Berkman's most similar batter (by similarity score) is David Ortiz, and I think everyone thinks he'll go in. In any case, it's way too early to start talking about this.
Anyways, that will mean the Astros will retire 11 numbers. I think Billy Wagner will probably be in the HOF not too long from now, and he'll probably go in as an Astro. Houston will be practically obligated to retire #13. So that's 12 numbers retired. That's a lot of jerseys. Especially for a club enfranchised in 1962. The Yankees are the only ones close, at 15 retired.
Some clubs have very strict rules about who gets their jerseys retired. The Mariners and Red Sox only permit those who have been inducted into the HOF to be retired. Most clubs have not retired anywhere close to the number Houston has.
But I don't think that's necessarily bad. There's nothing more like "Houston" than telling older cities, organizations, traditions, or whatever to fuck off. This is a city renowned for the oil boom - couldn't get much more "new money" than that until the internet bubble. We're a sprawling metropolis that flies in the face of what a city should be. The Astrodome - the symbol of this city and the Astros organization - was the biggest, tackiest architectural monstrosity money could buy. Older clubs played in parks like Yankee stadium and Fenway. We played on artificial grass with air conditioning and the home run spectacular. Our grounds crew wore fucking space helmets. We wore the rainbow guts. The Oilers played Run-and-Shoot. The Rockets had the Dream Shake. The Cougars redefined college basketball. The city of Houston doesn't give a shit about your fucking traditions.
So if we want to retire every fucking number between 1 and 99, and start issuing symbols and letters, then we can and will. I hope they retire Roger Clemens' number, too, even if he's denied a Hall of Fame spot for this steroids crap. Fuck them dumbass Yankees - he delivered us our first pennant. And you'll just have to deal with it.
I think the same applies for the Texans. We should retire every number the Oilers retired before Bud Adams consummated his relationship with the devil. And if Goodell has a problem with it he can shove it up his ass. The NFL fucked us over in 1997, and they let fucking Cleveland keep its club name, records, etc, while the legacy of the Oilers left for hillbilly country. Warren Moon and Earl Campbell didn't even fucking play in Tennessee, ever. Why the fuck should they get to keep their records and numbers? Campbell didn't cripple himself for Memphis, he did it for Houston.
Fuck. Now I'm all angry again. Fuck Bud Adams.
Roy Oswalt pitches a gem; Craig Biggio is awesome
The Wizard went 8 innings, allowing only 1 hit, 2 walks, no runs, and striking out 10. Pretty goddamn awesome, especially since he was getting squeezed through the whole game. Roy seems like he's getting back to form. I don't know if it was simply time, a mental thing, or if he went out and got a personal pitching coach, but he has been kickass through his last several starts. Ty Wigginton shot a three-run homer into the Crawford boxes, which accounted for all of Houston's offense. Spaz went 0 for whatever, but he made a pretty spectacular assist with Ausmus at the plate. Valverde came in the ninth, giving up a hit, but getting the save. All around a pretty awesome game.
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Biggio, of course, was the focus of the day. The ceremony was pretty good, and all of the retired numbers were there, except for Ryan. Bunch of speeches. Everyone talked about his 3000 hits, his doubles, etc. But most of all, they talked about his grit.
I think that's always what happens with players. People seem to want to remember them for things that don't affect the game all that much. Don't get me wrong, the guy was a joy to watch and certainly had grit and was a gamer and all that crap. But I think it's important to remember exactly why he was such an awesome player.
Bill James ranked the best players of the 1990s in his New Historical Baseball Abstract. In it, he placed Bonds at #1. No question, Bonds was the best player of the last two decades. He might have been the best of all time.
#2 (and this always surprises me) was Craig Biggio. James loved the Bidge. And it's easy to see why. Biggio really was a "five tool player." He could hit for average and power, he had a great arm and played spectacular defense, and he displayed remarkable speed.
That speed kept Biggio from grounding into the double play, as did his power. The guy has more doubles than any other right-handed hitter. He won four gold gloves (and deserved it). He had a great ability to get on base, particularly for a guy not spectacularly powerful. And he really knew how to take a pitch to the head. He won five Silver Slugger awards, four as a second baseman and one as a catcher. He had a career high OPS+ of 143, and a career average of 111. He was great - one of the greatest.
Biggio was certainly robbed of a lot of power statistics from his years in the Dome. Had he played in, say, any other ballpark, he likely would be considered one of the greatest of all time by the national media, and here's why: Biggio was only 9 homers away from the 3000 hits, 300 HRs, 300 SB club. If he had played anywhere but the Dome, or if he had played all year in 2000, he would have done it. There's only one other player in all of baseball history to pull that off: Willie Mays. And Biggio had about 80 more stolen bases than Mays, too.In his "Big Book of Baseball Lineups," Rob Neyer wrote that Biggio was "unique." And he meant that in the literal sense. Nobody else has gone from being an all-star catcher to being an all-star middle infielder. That's just not done.
Going by Similarity Scores, Biggio was most similar to Robin Yount. But Bidge has no "truly similar" match. His #3 match, Joe Morgan, is the guy I'd say was most similar, but really there was no one quite like Craig Biggio.
James ranked Bagwell #5 on the Best Players of the 1990s list. The Astros really had a great tandem with the Killer B's. Few teammates in the history of baseball are that great together. The last 15+ years have truly been a great time to be an Astros fan, even with the postseason losses and disappointment. It's a shame that the two had to eventually retire, but they made baseball big in Houston, and did a lot for this city and franchise.
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So they had about a billion in-game interviews today: Bagwell, Biggio, Bill Doran, and Mike Scott all showed up in the booth. I usually hate that type of crap, but hearing those guys was pretty sweet.
Bagwell gave a pretty great endorsement for Bogusevic. Great ballplayers aren't always great evaluators of talent, but it can't hurt to have one of the greatest hitters ever say that you're looking good at the plate. I hope he gets called up in September.
---------------------
Biggio, of course, was the focus of the day. The ceremony was pretty good, and all of the retired numbers were there, except for Ryan. Bunch of speeches. Everyone talked about his 3000 hits, his doubles, etc. But most of all, they talked about his grit.
I think that's always what happens with players. People seem to want to remember them for things that don't affect the game all that much. Don't get me wrong, the guy was a joy to watch and certainly had grit and was a gamer and all that crap. But I think it's important to remember exactly why he was such an awesome player.
Bill James ranked the best players of the 1990s in his New Historical Baseball Abstract. In it, he placed Bonds at #1. No question, Bonds was the best player of the last two decades. He might have been the best of all time.
#2 (and this always surprises me) was Craig Biggio. James loved the Bidge. And it's easy to see why. Biggio really was a "five tool player." He could hit for average and power, he had a great arm and played spectacular defense, and he displayed remarkable speed.
That speed kept Biggio from grounding into the double play, as did his power. The guy has more doubles than any other right-handed hitter. He won four gold gloves (and deserved it). He had a great ability to get on base, particularly for a guy not spectacularly powerful. And he really knew how to take a pitch to the head. He won five Silver Slugger awards, four as a second baseman and one as a catcher. He had a career high OPS+ of 143, and a career average of 111. He was great - one of the greatest.
Biggio was certainly robbed of a lot of power statistics from his years in the Dome. Had he played in, say, any other ballpark, he likely would be considered one of the greatest of all time by the national media, and here's why: Biggio was only 9 homers away from the 3000 hits, 300 HRs, 300 SB club. If he had played anywhere but the Dome, or if he had played all year in 2000, he would have done it. There's only one other player in all of baseball history to pull that off: Willie Mays. And Biggio had about 80 more stolen bases than Mays, too.In his "Big Book of Baseball Lineups," Rob Neyer wrote that Biggio was "unique." And he meant that in the literal sense. Nobody else has gone from being an all-star catcher to being an all-star middle infielder. That's just not done.
Going by Similarity Scores, Biggio was most similar to Robin Yount. But Bidge has no "truly similar" match. His #3 match, Joe Morgan, is the guy I'd say was most similar, but really there was no one quite like Craig Biggio.
James ranked Bagwell #5 on the Best Players of the 1990s list. The Astros really had a great tandem with the Killer B's. Few teammates in the history of baseball are that great together. The last 15+ years have truly been a great time to be an Astros fan, even with the postseason losses and disappointment. It's a shame that the two had to eventually retire, but they made baseball big in Houston, and did a lot for this city and franchise.
-----------------
So they had about a billion in-game interviews today: Bagwell, Biggio, Bill Doran, and Mike Scott all showed up in the booth. I usually hate that type of crap, but hearing those guys was pretty sweet.
Bagwell gave a pretty great endorsement for Bogusevic. Great ballplayers aren't always great evaluators of talent, but it can't hurt to have one of the greatest hitters ever say that you're looking good at the plate. I hope he gets called up in September.
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