Tough choice today; Deconstructing the Wizard

So I leave for Tulane tomorrow. Not all that keen on going back to school, but whatever. I've got to finish getting the debate society ready. I really need to just hand the tournament and campus debate stuff off to my officers. I can just be a figurehead.

My roommate's name is Zhong Jian Jiang. I think he might be Chinese. I had hoped for a single this year, but having to live in the same room with someone isn't too bad.

Roy gets a start against Santana today, in what will be the last series this season against the Mets. The Texans take on the Cowboys tonight, too. So I'm left with something of a dilemma. The Astros game starts at 6, and while Roy and Santana are quick workers, I doubt the game will be over in an hour. At the same time, the Texans game starts at 7. Preseason football is meaningless, but the prospect of seeing the Texans destroy the Cowboys is always tempting, especially since we don't play them in regular season this year. I'd rank beating the Cowboys to being only slightly less than beating the Titans on the "Cathartic Sports Experiences" list. Third is beating the Braves and Cardinals in the playoffs. Fourth is beating the motherfucking Jazz.

So, unless the Astros game is a blowout (in which case I'll probably still watch in hand-wringing anxiety over the state of our ace pitcher), I'll have to flip between channels. And the problem with that is that baseball is a game best watched over a long period - quick glimpses of it don't give the appropriate "feel" for the game. But football isn't something you can just ignore for a few minutes. The entire course of the game can change on one bad pass. It's a tough decision, hence the title for the post.

I also watched the Bears-49ers game last night. Tulane alum Matt Forte (really a surprise to everyone that he was taken in the 2nd round) started the night at RB for Chicago. He got 44 yards in 11 carries, better than Reggie Bush. And he caught one reception for seven yards. Pretty good for his second professional game. I only ever met the guy once, and he seemed like a pretty down-to-earth type. Pretty smart guy, too. So I (and the rest of Tulane, I'm sure) am glad that he's getting a chance at the professional level. Hopefully it works out for him.


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The Crawfish Boxes once again has a pretty good statistical article. This time, DyingQuail looks at the difference between Roy's DIPS and his ERA. He comes up with a fairly disturbing revelation: Roy is pitching even worse that his ERA would indicate.

As I point out in the comments section, I think that most of his problems can be attributed to his completely wacky HR/FB ratio. I also pointed out that much of the variation in his HR/9 stat could be normal noise. If you look at any pitcher's HR/9 rate, you'll find a great deal of deviation from year to year.

Roy has had an improvement this year: an increase in his K/BB ratio. DyingQuail attributes this to the absence of Adam Everett - Roy is no longer pitching to contact with Tejada behind him instead of Everett. This is certainly an interesting theory.

Roy has said, in recent interviews, that he finally feels healthy again. If that's the case, then everything should be fine next year. In the meantime, however, I'd say that it's best just to shut the Wizard down for the season and have him start whatever rehab he needs. If he needs surgery, the Roy should have it done immediately. If he just needs rest and time, then he can have an extra month to do so.

As the guys at Baseball Prospectus have pointed out time and again, Roy is a statistical outlier. That's why he's the Wizard - he's a small guy who throws hard with great finesse and can seemingly get himself out of the worst situations on a routine basis. He's also a lot like John Smoltz - he's cool with pushing himself well past where he should stop. That he told Coop that he needed to be taken out of that game in Dallas should have been an alarm bell for management and the trainers.

Roy will rebound. He's had an off season. But even the best pitchers have those. The key is just to pack it up for the season and try again next year.