It is possible to win via free agency, but it gets expensive quick, particularly now that our best farm-grown talent (Lance and Roy) are free agents themselves. But both are locked into long-term contracts with no trade clauses - these are essentially sunk costs.
So we have the basis to form a good team: A hitter on a HOF career path, another that's in the top 20 hitters in the country, and one of the best pitchers of his generation. We've got something here to work with.
If we were to sign Wigginton to another contract (and this might be dangerous; he's had a few decent seasons and now one great season) and we solidify and fine-tune the bullpen, we have only a few problem areas:
1) The starting rotation.
2) Shortstop
3) Catcher
Pitchers
Let's start with the rotation.
I think it's fair to assume that Roy will return to form next year. I've been looking at his numbers, and what jumps out at me is that there's only been one category in his "controllable factors" that has gotten significantly worse: Homers/9IP. (For those not familiar with statistical evaluation of pitchers beyond ERA, a quick explanation is needed. A guy named Voros McCraken found out in the mid-90s that pitchers' ERAs, WHIP, etc are essentially not correlated with one another from year to year. In other words, pitchers really can't DIRECTLY control whether something is a hit or an easy fly out. Further research has shown that there are a few things that pitchers can control: Walks, K's, Ground Ball / Fly Ball ratio, and how many homers they allow. Roy, for instance, strikes out a ton of dudes, doesn't walk many at all, mostly gives up easy ground balls, and usually doesn't allow many homers. That last category has increased, but should go down.)
Okay, so we assume Roy is back to being the Wizard next year. We still need at least one other great starting pitcher for this to work. Who will be available? Quick answer: a ton.
Here are the ones that jump out at me.
AJ Burnett is the AL leader in K's, now that Sabatthia has left for Milwaukee. He's played in Toronto since 2006, and he's made it clear that he'll be opting out of his contract at the end of the season. He obviously strikes out a lot of hitters, walks more than his fair share, and mostly gives up ground balls. He's Roy without the control. Or Nolan Ryan with more control. His current contract pays him some $13.2 million. He's from Arkansas, so he's kind of a local guy. Sorta. Not really.
The issues with Burnett are 1) his desired contract. The guy's probably going to want something even bigger than he has now (unless he's leaving simply because he hates Toronto or the Blue Jays organization), maybe with even more years. 2) The guy spends too much time on the DL. He gets injured a lot. 2) Might reduce the significance of 1), but he's going to want to get paid. His asking price is probably going to be anywhere between $10 and $14 million. Going from PECOTA projections, we could probably get away with a 3 or 4 year deal. Anything more is asking for trouble. But it also gives us trade options down the road.
You might remember Jon Garland as the guy who gave Ozzie Guillen a big kiss after the 2005 World Series. He's more of a control guy - he doesn't walk many hitters at all, but he also doesn't strike out many people. Pretty average GB/FB ratio. He's Roy without the good fastball, sinker, power curve, or daring-do. Currently, he's employed with the Angels on a $12 million/year contract. That's probably too much money for the guy, but we'll see what he gets in free agency.
John Lackey is, like Garland, currently an Angel. He's got a $9 million option for next year with a 0.5 million buyout clause. If he feels that he can get more on the open market (he can), then he'll probably leave. Strikes out a lot, walks few, mostly GBs (though not as extreme as Roy or Burnett). Again, he'll want the cash.
Sabatthia will probably end up with a much wealthier club than the Astros. He's gonna want some serious cash. He's young, he's really good, and he's worth it to whoever gets him. While it would be a major coup if the Good Guys land him, I doubt they'll pull that one off. The good news is that the offers to Sabatthia might lessen the offers for other great pitchers. This wouldn't be true in real life, but the economics of baseball are all fucked up.
Sheets is one of those guys whom Drayton loves - he's local (Louisiana), the guys in the clubhouse love him (Burnett doesn't really seem like he'd get on well with the kinda conservative vibe of the Stros clubhouse), and he gets injured a ton. He's the second coming of Andy Pettitte.
Sheets was abused like Roy in his early career. Roy was able to take it, but Sheets really wasn't. They're remarkably similar pitchers, and they'll command remarkably similar asking prices. I'd shy away from the guy unless we get another good starter. Using the bullpen correctly with Sheets would be key - we can't overwork the guy. But Coop is anything if not eager to use his pen, so that wouldn't be an issue.
Those are the big names, anyways. My dream rotation would look something like: (1) Oswalt (2) Burnett (3) Lackey. That's unlikely, though.
We also need to look at fourth starters. We might re-sign Wolf to a short deal, which might be worth it if he's only there to eat space. But our in-house options are really limited to Backe and Wandy. Wandy is having a career year, but he's really not that good. Moehler is going to be 39 next year. He's a good fifth starter but little else. He's gotten lucky so far.
Shortstop
This is a result of Tejada continuing the suck. He's a likable guy and a clubhouse leader. Particularly for our Latin American contingent.
But the problem is that Tejada continues to not be worth his contract. While other players, at 33, start to improve their old-player skills (more walks, more power), Tejada is turning in even worse numbers there. He's walked even less than last year. He's hit fewer homers, fewer doubles, and more dinky singles than two years ago. This is problematic because we're giving him $15 million a year to be average. If we were paying him only 2 or 3 or even 5 million, this wouldn't be an issue. As I've said in the past, the first step towards improving this team is in trading Tejada. Even if we have to pick up part of the salary, it might be worth it.
The problem is that there really aren't any quality offensive shortstops in free agency. I've said previously that Everett might be worth it, simply because he'd free up payroll for other acquisitions. In the end, we might just have to hope Tejada learns to not fucking swing at pitches off of the plate. Or continue to bat him in front of Lance and Carlos.
Catcher
To me, at least, the catcher position has been the most depressing part of the Astros' lineup for the last 15 years. Mitch Meluskey, who in 2000 was posting an EQA of .289 and hit 14 homers, was traded for Ausmus after he punched a teammate during BP. After that, he apparently slid into family problems and left the game.
But Meluskey was the best offensive catcher the Astros have ever had. Unfortunately, he was a dick and had terrible defense. So Ausmus got the position. Brad's main advantages are that he's pretty and can call a great game. He's a defensive catcher, which has its good points.
It looks like Q is going to get the starting role for the rest of the year, at least. Brad still catches Roy, but otherwise Q is clearly the starting catcher. Q has his assets: he's got a hell of an arm, he can take a beating, and he is cheap. On some level, that's all that you really need in a catcher.
But we REALLY need every fucking hit, double, homer, etc. that we can get. Every shred of offense is worth a great deal to this club. Q has displayed, in recent games, some power and greater ability. But I'll be inclined to think that's a fluke until the end of the season.
The problem is that there really aren't any Mike Piazzas out there. There isn't even a Bengie Molina out there. I think we're going to have to trade to get anything worthwhile in free agency. Hopefully, in two years, Jason Castro will have proven himself in the minors. In the meantime, though, the backstop position is just a black hole for outs in the lineup.
The Draft
The problem that the Astros are going to have with grabbing as many FA's as possible is the draft. This isn't as big a deal for a club with a losing record (our first round pick, but not the second, will be protected).
It is possible to get first round talent in the later rounds. It takes cash and a willingness to give in to some 21 year-old manchild prima dona's demands. If we spend in the draft - I'm talking about going toe-to-toe with the Red Sox in this - then we can quickly improve the system without having fire sales. But that's going to take 10 million a year, every year, for a few seasons.
Drayton would really have to commit to getting the best talent at every draft pick we have.
The way I see it, it's possible to drastically improve the Astros' pitching situation in December. But position players are another matter. Maybe this is what Ed Wade foresaw last Winter.
I don't think, however, that this team can be easily retooled for next season. We're competing against 29 other teams for the services of these free agents. The Yankees will be making the market for pitching very difficult, as will many other deep-pocketed teams. In order for this to work, Drayton will have to invest in pitchers like he did with Pettitte and Clemens in 2004.
I don't know if he's willing or even able to do that, though. We'll see in a few months.
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