Friday, October 10, 2008

The more I think about it, the more I like it.

I know that Drayton McLane and Ed Wade are going to take a lot of shit this offseason if they don't sign Ben Sheets (or some other ace pitcher). Drayton has indicated that they'll just stick with what they've got.

It's impossible to know someone's motivations. They way I see it, Ed Wade could have three reasons for not pursuing free agents this winter:

1) Money. It could be that Drayton is just unwilling to expand payroll. We're paying a lot of money to Tejada, Berkman, Lee, and Oswalt, and we're not getting that much out of it. Add to that a relatively large contract to Matsui, and we've got a club with a lot of money tied up in older players.

Now, I'm pretty sure that Drayton and Wade want to sign Valverde to a big contract. I'm not so sure that's a good idea - he's an injury risk and closers are highly overrated. I think his main value to the Astros would be as trade bait or as two draft picks in 2010. But clubs want "experienced" closers, and Valverde is as good as any other.

So Drayton could just be scrimping on payroll now to pay for other stuff down the line. That's not unreasonable.

2) Stupidity. Wade could be vastly overrating this team. He might think that this club really is an 87 win team, and that's just stupid. So he and Drayton might believe that, if they just go after some lesser-known talent, they can win big next year.

3) Wade is a freakin' genius. Or at least he pays attention. He might realize that this team really sucks, and that investing further will just be adding payroll to a team that might make it to 4th place in the NL Central next year.

So he might be looking for cheap contracts just to shore up the rotation and get the Astros through the season. They'll focus on the farm system for a while, and just hope for the best in the major league team.

I don't know. If they do go for a "rebuilding" route, it's going to be a shitty couple years. Only the wealthiest clubs (Yankees, Red Sox, etc.) can rebuild while remaining competitive in the big leagues. That's unfortunate for the rest of us. But remember that if we're patient, we can see another Astros dynasty. I'm pretty fucking tired of waiting for it, but I figure I can do it for another few years.

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