Astros lost today. 5-2 Brewers. A fairly good showing from everyone but Wandy. I didn't see anything after the 6th inning, though. Reading a recap, I see that the Good Guys had something of a rally going in the eighth. Miggy got an infield single (pretty good for a 33 year old), Lance was hit by a Gagne pitch, and Blum reached on an error. So our man Spaz is up to bat. Twice before, he had either grounded into a double play or had enough speed to avoid it. This time, Hunter bounced into an easy 1-2-3 DP. Good job. Newhan grounded out to end the inning.
Yesterday, though, the Astros won against Ben Sheets. Bourn got a 2 RBI Triple, and he later reached base on a HBP and scored on a 3-run Blum homer. So Bourn either batted-in or scored 3/5 of the Astros' runs. Pretty cool.
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But I want to talk about Pence. Hunter came into the big leagues last year as the Astros' top prospect. This wasn't really saying much, though. But at the end of the year, Hunter Pence and Corey Hart were considered fairly similar hitters. In fact, many people thought that Pence was a safer bet to succeed that Hart.
What happened? Hart is on his way to a 20HR-20SB season, but Hunter is barely hitting .260. He might hit 20 homers by the end of the season (he has 17 right now). If he does that, he might top 100 on OPS+. I'd count that as a win for the season, but it's not looking like it will happen.
HighLeveragePerformer at the Crawfish Boxes has a pretty good exploration of Hunter's decline. I think Hunter has issues that partly explain his decline in BABIP.
BABIP values for hitters vary wildly from year to year. Here's Berkman's, here's Jeff Bagwell's, and here's Hunter's. In general, however, BABIP stays in a general range for hitters. Some of Hunter's decline might be attributed to normal variation. But his .378 value for last year was just too ridiculous to sustain.
Hunter's main problem in his first two seasons has been plate discipline. In his time in the majors, Hunter has posted a BB% of a little over 5%. That's not pretty.
What's odd about his MLB plate discipline is that he showed a good bit of it in the minors - he had a BB% north of 10%. As soon as he hit the majors, though, he practically stopped walking. Compare this to Lance (I know; it's not fair to compare Hunter with one of the finest hitters in the NL, but it serves our purposes), who walks in over 14% of his PAs.
Stats can tell you a great deal. But they can't really tell you why a player is having trouble. We can say that the reason Hunter is scuffling at the plate is probably because he doesn't have good pitch selection and thus doesn't hit as well, but we can't tell you why he swings at pitches out of the zone.
The good news is that Hunter is only 25. He can improve. But it requires a great deal of self-awareness on the part of Hunter and an understanding of his problems on the part of his hitting coach.
First, Hunter doesn't make great contact with pitches inside. That's his primary hole. Second (as we all know), Hunter has a MAJOR problem with laying off the low and outside slider. I've seen him swing at so many sliders in the dirt that I'm just happy when Spaz doesn't strike out swinging on one.
People have made a big deal about the fact that Hunter's seen the fewest fastballs of any hitter in the big leagues. That's because it is a big deal. The league figured out Hunter's weakness in the offseason and has adjusted appropriately. Lefty pitchers still have a problem with him, but they can throw a sinker or changeup inside and bet that Pence won't hit it.
The Crawfish Boxes post ends by suggesting that Pence will either take a page from Berkman's or Vlad Guerrero's notebook. I don't think he can do the whole Vlad thing. He can't make good contact with pitches that far off of the plate. If Hunter's going to succeed, he's got to improve his eye. He simply can't afford to give away strikes by fouling off an outside pitch. He's got to be able to force the pitcher into a hitter's count and wait on a fastball. He's so good at hitting those that, if he were able to do this, he'd be unstoppable. If he doesn't, he's just a below-average corner OF.
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Brownie and JD said that Ausmus has officially said that this year will be his last with the Astros. He'll either get with a club in Southern California or retire next season. He's almost 40, which is an exceptionally long career, especially for a catcher. Especially one with such terrible offensive numbers.
Brad made a long career from being one of the best defensive catchers in baseball. I've long thought that the Astros made a mistake by trading for him all those years ago, and I don't renege on that opinion.
But by all indications, Brad's a great guy and the pitchers and other players love him. And we'll always remember that (somewhat controversial) home run. 2 outs, bottom of the 9th, game 4 of the NLDS. Facing the hated Braves and that dumbass Farnsworth, Ausmus slammed one just over the yellow line in deep left-center, sending the GREATEST GAME EVAR into extra innings. Despite his anemic offense, I'm going to miss the guy next year. It's a shame that the whole JR Towles thing didn't work out. Maybe Q learned something from Brad.
Here's something I didn't know about Brad: he is actually an iron man. He spent exactly 0 days on the DL in his sixteen years behind the plate. That's amazing, considering the abuse that every catcher takes every day, and seeing the sort of freak accidents that happened all the time to Q this year (getting hit in the balls, concusion, etc.).
I hope Brad can get a job with the Padres or Dodgers or Angels or whatever. And he seems like the kind of guy who would make a good manager. He understands pitchers and was a poor hitter. Knowing Drayton's love for the Good-Ol'-Boy system, it wouldn't surprise me to see Ausmus as a bench coach in a few years.
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