Management; On the NL West and Dunn's future

I'm a Houston (actually Galveston) native, but the first ballgame I ever saw was at Camden Yards. We lived in Baltimore for a couple years, and I guess I must have been about four years old. I don't remember much, and we moved back to Houston by the time I was five.

The Orioles have, over the last two decades, endured a long slide into oblivion. Ownership has destroyed the farm system, occasionally bloating the payroll in a vain attempt to gain ground against the Yankees and Sox. So I don't remember a time when the Orioles were ever really good. But I do know about those days.

I firmly believe that the best manager of all time was Earl Weaver. I don't think there is a question about it - the guy understood baseball in a way that was decades ahead of his time. People like to think that Billy Beane pioneered using good sense in the game, but Weaver did it before him, just as Branch Rickey did before Earl.

So tonight, I watched as Coop decided to intentionally walk Jason Kendell to load the bases and pitch to Sabatthia. This is a classic case of overmanagement. Last night, Ranger Josh Hamilton was afforded the honor of being one of the few hitters to be intentionally walked when the bases were already loaded. That kind of made sense, given the situation, and Wheeler got the next guy out for the Rays.

But tonight, Wolf was facing Jason Kendell, not Bonds or Hamilton. He was ordered to intentionally walk a guy who is not a very good hitter, so that he could face a fairly good hitter of a pitcher. I'd say that Kendell and Sabatthia are roughly equal in terms of hitting ability.

So Coop increased the number of expected runs in a situation for roughly no net gain in the chances of an out. And the Astros promptly got burned when Sabatthia swung at the first pitch, throwing a ground ball down the right field line. Wolf got really unlucky there. Had Blum been playing closer to the line, that wouldn't have happened. But whatever

Coop has done this sort of thing time and again. He gave everyone the green light to steal early in the year. There are, statistically, only three guys on the team who should be stealing: Bourn, Matsui, and (oddly enough) Berkman. That's it. But the result was a hell of a lot of outs generated on the basepaths. He doesn't seem to understand the value of Wigginton, overvalues Tejada, and has apparantly decided to bench Bourn for the rest of the season. I never really complained about Garner, though he made some idiotic decisions, but Coop really fucks up time and again. I don't blame him for tonight, because they were going up against a Cy Young candidate and had little chance, anyways, but he does this kind of shit all the time.

But his worse sin is bullpen management. The reason Brocail is sitting most of the time after the All-Star break is that he's in his 40's and is overused. Brocail was assigned the "8th inning guy" role, which meant that he was brought out way too many times. By the break, Brocail's pitches had no movement or velocity, and he was giving up leads over and over again.

Earl Weaver had his rules, briefly summed up as "Pitching, Defense, and the Three Run Homer." He said the most important part of the game was pitching, and the most important part of management was the bullpen. And he was right. Most of the things a manager can do on the field - order a guy to steal a base, signal a hit-and-run play, etc - really only hurt your chances to win. The only things that can help are in filling out the lineup card correctly, using the bench well, and distributing work throughout the bullpen. He can make sure that his best hitters are up against the right pitchers, and he can make sure that his pitching staff isn't overworked. Everything else is either people-management or idiotic crap.

Coop seems to understand use of the bench - he doesn't do too much with it, but he'll use bench players against specific pitchers if there's a favorable matchup. But he doesn't seem to get the bullpen. He's not been aided by a starting pitching staff that has been injured, bad, or both throughout much of the season, but he seems too beholden to the idea of pitching "roles." We'll see what he does next year. If the starters are improved in the offseason then he might not need to go to the bullpen as often. He might learn from his mistakes. We'll find out later.

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It looks like Greg Maddux is going to the Dodgers in the arms race between the D-Backs and Dodgers for supremacy in the NL West. It's kind of infuriating that two teams with similar records to the Astros are still in contention when Houston's almost certainly not going to make the playoffs. The Dodgers are clearly adopting a "Win NOW, dammit!" approach, what with Kent, Manny, and now Maddux all probably leaving or retiring at the end of the season. I don't think it's really the best decision, long-term, but I can see wanting to do it. It will be interesting to see if the D-Backs try to pick up another pitcher in the next few days. I don't think they need to, given that they have one of the best pitching staffs in the NL, but front-office types are pretty jumpy when it comes to stuff like this (see the Texeira for Kotsay trade). I don't know who I'd rather see in the playoffs. The Dodgers are obviously the poorer-run club, but it would be cool seeing Manny play in the NL playoffs. The D-Backs have better pitching, which probably will get them farther (see the Astros in 2005), and I think Dunn deserves to get to the playoffs. But he'll probably be going to a real contender next year - he's just too good not to, even if dumbasses like the Astros' front office (again, see 2005) and Dusty Baker don't see his value.

The problem Dunn might have is where he might fit. He's said he'd most like to play for Houston, but we already have one terrible left-fielder employed on a long-term contract. And Pence has no business being in center.

For the NL, I think the main candidates are the Giants, Dodgers, and Mets. The Dodgers will be losing Manny to Free Agency (I'd say it's good money to bet he'll go to the Mets), the Giants need a slugger like no other club in the big leagues, and the Mets have probably lost Moises Alou. I wouldn't be surprised if Alou retires at the end of the season. All of the teams have the money to pay him. Colorado might be an option, depending on what Holiday does.

For the AL, I'd say his best bet is the Tigers. I'm less familiar with the American League, so it's more difficult to say, but the Tigers have the cash and a lack of a slugging LF. And after Sheffield leaves, he can play DH, where he belongs. Some people seem to think the Yankees would want Manny, but I don't think so. Manny is 36 and in the middle of the "declining production" phase. That would be a pre-1996 move by the Yankees, and Cashman seems to understand the value of young players.

Dunn would be a better option for the Yankees, but I doubt they'll go for him. They don't really need another LF. They've got a DH in Giambi. And the Yankee fans would kill a consistent .230-.260 hitter like Dunn. If they hate the way A-Rod isn't "clutch," they'd fucking loathe the Big Donkey drawing a walk in the bottom of the 9th with RISP. Smart people would say, "Good job, Dunn - you didn't make an out and have increased the expected runs for the inning. Now Giambi or whoever the fuck is behind you will attempt to do the same." But these are baseball fans we're talking about, and Yankees fans at that.

Other than that, I don't really see a place for Dunn. I guess the D-Backs might try to get him to sign, but I doubt it. It just seems that the market for his skills is surprisingly limited. Great hitters rarely have that happen, but Dunn's skills are fairly under-appreciated. It seems like most teams that would want him either already have LF/DH locked up or don't have the cash or draft picks to be spending on the guy.