Saturday, August 23, 2008

The Wizard Imitates the Rocket; Kubiak Gambles and Loses

Oswalt gave up three runs in the first two innings, and then proceded to pitch six perfect innings. Vintage Roy. The first inning, he mostly got unlucky, giving up a dinky single from Reyes, who moved over on a "wild pitch" (it was a curveball, which Roy wasn't really spotting well in the first few innings, that bounced in the dirt and was blocked by Brad. And Brad's arm isn't quite what it used to be; had Q been catching, Reyes would've been gunned down), and scored on a Wright bloop single that Spaz couldn't get to. Roy struck out the next two he faced.

In the second, Roy gave up a ground ball to Ryan Church. It was just barely fair, Blum fielded it but couldn't quite make the throw in time. The catcher, Schneider, swung at a first pitch fastball that was pretty fat, sending it over the CF fence. Truly a monstrous shot. After that, Roy decided to just pitch perfect ball. He retired the next twenty he faced.


The Astros were actually hitting very well against Santana. Loretta drew a walk, and the Astros got 8 hits on the guy. All would be left on base.

In the first inning, Lance put on one of the most epic pitcher-batter duels I've seen in a while. It went on for several minutes, with the Puma fouling off pitches and bringing the count to 3-2. Finally, he was k'd looking on an inside changeup - the Santana Special. It was pretty borderline, but it was a good glimpse at how great of a hitter Berkman is - he doesn't chase the bad pitch, but he'll be aggressive when he has to be.

Hunter put on a pretty good AB against Santana, as well. He laid off the down-and-away pitches, as well as the inside stuff. In other words, he was thinking at the plate. We'd groundout to Wright, but he still did a pretty good job.

The only problem Hunter had with Santana, I think, was a complete lack of agression. Guys like Berkman and Dunn succeed because they will swing on the first pitch if they think they can hit it well. You're not so much playing for the walk as you're playing for a pitch to hit. Statistically, Hunter's pitch to hit is a fastball up in the zone. At least once, Santana's first pitch was a fastball left up, and Hunter should have jumped on that. Hunter makes plenty of mistakes on the basepaths, in the outfield, and at the plate, but I think a lot will come with maturity.

Twice the Astros got men at 2nd and 3rd, but both times they were unable to score. That sucked, but it happens. So Oswalt, despite having pitched a fantastic game, gets the loss. And that's another spectacular example about why pitcher's wins and losses are meaningless.

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The defense was pretty fucking dreadful last night. They forced 3 turnovers, but just couldn't hold back the fucking Cowboys.

Schaub had a tough first quarter, but came back and did well. Sage came in and did his thing, leading some pretty good drives. The last Texans' drive featured several borderline incomplete pass calls, and the Texans were third-and-goal. In what will probably be the height of my armchair-playcalling career, I totally called the QB draw play. Sage faked the pass and dove into the end zone in a truly beautiful play.

So the Texans were 20-21 against Dallas. And Kubiak decided to go for the two point conversion. Jones dropped the pass, and the Cowboys proceeded to run out the clock. Whatever.

Personally (and I've said this for years), I think NFL coaches are way too fucking cautious. They'll punt when they should probably go for it; they'll go for the PAT instead of the conversion, even when the difference if you don't make it isn't that great but the payoff from making it is.

There was some economics papers I read, saying that expected payoff from fourth down meant that teams should go for the 4th down (provided it's not 4th-and-long) if they were anywhere past they're own 35 yd line. I'm inclined to agree. Trust your defense and go for it. No offense to Turk, but punting is for pussies.

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