Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Some more examples.

To reiterate what I've said in previous posts, the Astros can significantly improve the team by cutting payroll and reinvesting the difference in the farm system. I argued for reacquiring Everett in free agency next year, but there are other examples.

Second Base:
Again, let's say we let Loretta walk. This isn't unreasonable for a variety of reasons, but mostly because we're paying him $2.5 million and that's maybe a million too much. And let's say the Astros don't have anyone to call up. Who's going to be available next year?

There are only really three candidates: current Twins infielder Nick Punto, Cardinal Aaron Miles, and Oakland A Mark Ellis.

Of the three, Mark Ellis (.233/.320/.375) is currently being paid the most: $5 million. That was probably reached in arbitration. I assume that he'll probably leave Oakland next season - he doesn't seem like the type Beane would be willing to pay $5 million. He probably won't get the same contract on the open market.

Aaron Miles (.311/.349/.387) is being paid $1.4 million, which is right around what we want to pay him. He'll be 33 next year, and won't be particularly sought after. Provided the Cards don't offer him arbitration or something, he'll probably be on the market.

Nick Punto (.271/.330/.394) gets $2.4 million. We'll see what he gets in free agency, but I wouldn't say he'll get anything higher. We might be able to pick him up for cheap.

So let's say we're able to get one of these guys for an upper-limit price of $2 million (and I think we can get one of these guys for cheaper). And let's say we're able to send Matsui to another team. If we do those two things, we save $3.5 million. And we'll get a prospect or two. Probably nothing special, but it's better than overpaying Matsui and having no prospects.

Obviously, it would be better if we could call up a minor leaguer to do the job for next to nothing. So who do have in Round Rock and Corpus?

In Round Rock, our options are fairly limited. The only guys batting well there are Mark Saccomanno, JR House, and Ray Sadler. They play 3B, 1B, and OF, respectively. (What's with Saccomanno? The Astros have been saying he's the third baseman of the future, but he's 28 and they go out and grab Ty Wigginton.)

At Corpus Christi, we have a guy named Drew Sutton. Sutton is batting .311/.401/.507 this season with 17 homers and 33 doubles. We drafted him in 2004 out of Baylor, and the first link Google gives you about him is titled "CHECK OUT WHAT GOD IS DOING IN THE LIFE OF THIS ATHLETE." Good. He'll get along with Lance.

Now, the jump from AA to the MLB is a dangerous one. There's no guarantee that Sutton will do well against MLB pitching. But hopefully the Astros will use him in September as a call-up and evaluate him at MMPUS.

In any case, we're not really looking for him to be the next Ray Durham. We just want him to be below average to average - that's all we need. His main asset is that we can pay him a league-minimum salary and get away with it.

3rd Base:

I like Wiggy. He's the third-best hitter on the team. That's why we've got to trade him, if possible. I believe that he's got one more year with the team. If not, then offer him arbitration and see what we can get. Hopefully he'll sign with a big, well-off club that will give us their first round pick for him. Sweet.

On the free agency list, only Dallas McPherson is what we're looking for: OPS+ value of 90-100 and probably willing to be underpaid. He's batting .279/.384/.629 in AAA Albuquerque. That's a Florida affiliate, and I don't think the Marlins plan on dumping Jorge Cantu any time soon. So, provided we can get him on a decent contract for a few seasons (where if he improves we can trade him), he might be a good investment.

If we can't get him, then just promote Saccomano or something. Again, the goal is not to win but to save money on payroll. That's the key.

So that's the basic idea. Other than second and third base, the Astros really don't have much room to be getting rid of players. The big hitting positions of LF and 1B are tied up. Ausmus will probably be retiring or leaving next year, and it seems like Q will get the starting catcher job (this should tell everyone how fucked up the catcher position is with the Astros). Someone else will get called up to play backup. Pitching is similar, but I don't really want to go through all our shitty pitching prospects. It's depressing. If Paulino finally gets off the DL, we might save some cash. If not, I imagine everyone but Wolf will return.

Lessons: Save cash, invest, and don't be afraid to lose.

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