Saturday, September 20, 2008

Puma for NL MVP!

Over at Beyond the Box Score, they've posted individual wins-over-replacement values for individual players in the NL. Three Astros are mentioned: Carlos Lee, Miguel Tejada, and Lance Berkman.

Tejada has given the Astros 1.3 wins over replacement (this includes fielding). To quote from BtBS post, "You'll have to wait until the AL article to see where Luke Scott falls. Hint: better than 1.3 wins above replacement." At the time of the trade, the 5-for-1 deal was widely seen as an okay move. If nothing else, Tejada would offer a major improvement (offensively) over Everett.

But Luke Scott has turned into something of a decent hitter. He's posted a 119 OPS+ this year, and he's done well in Baltimore. It's unfortunate that Scott was traded away, but there really was no place for him in the Astros' outfield.

Carlos Lee ranked #9 in the NL. Cool. El Caballo continues to be a fantastic hitter, even if his contract is ridiculous.

Lee is the anti-Utley: bad fielder, great clutch hitter.

That's the other thing about this list - it adjusts for "clutchness." I don't really buy that such a thing exists in baseball, but whatever. I suppose it's a decent thing to look for in an MVP. Good for Carlos and the Astros.

Number one is, of course, Albert Pujo - what? It's not?! Who's the winningest hitter in the National League, baseball stat guys?

1. Lance Berkman (8.6 wins) -- Even without his great clutch performance, he managed to give Pujols a run for his money, trailing by one win in WPA/LI and only half a win in the field. But by being clutch to the tune of 1.8 wins, Berkman was able to do more for his team than even Prince Albert did. But yes, Randy Wolf was the catalyst for the Astros' playoff chase.

Well, whaddya know? Turns out that the Big Puma is the most valuable player this year. Turns out that walking a lot and hitting doubles and homers when it counts makes you pretty valuable. And Berkman walks a lot and slugs when it counts, because THAT'S WHAT PUMAS DO, DAMMIT!

Oh yeah, he walked three times last night. Didn't get a hit, but Hunter could learn a thing or two from Lance.

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